NCAA History: Cinderella No. 15-Seeds Usually Just a Cute First-Week Story

For only the third time in NCAA Tournament history, a No. 15 seed has advanced to the regional semifinals. Saint Peter's, a tiny Jesuit school in Jersey City, N.J., knocked off blueblood Kentucky and 31-win Murray State last week, and now have a date with Purdue on Friday in Philadelphia. Cinderella stories are cute, but they don't usually last long. A No. 15 seed has never won a game in the second week of the tourney.

Tom Brew | Mar 22, 2022

PHILADELPHIA, Pa. — There's a good reason why the first two days of the NCAA Tournament are so fun — and so crazy. There are 16 games each day, and it's wall-to-wall basketball for 13 hours or more.

We love it. And what makes us love it the most are the upsets. They happen, some years more than others. And when a small school knocks off a blueblood and makes a run, we love it even more.

This year's Cinderella is Saint Peter's, a small private Jesuit school based in Jersey City, N.J., just across the Hudson River from New York City. They have just 2,600 undergraduate students on campus, and are a founding member of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference, along with schools like Iona and Siena and Marist, among others.

Even the most ardent of basketball fans doesn't really know much about Saint Peter's, but that all changed last Thursday when the No. 15-seed Peacocks knocked off mighty No. 2-seed Kentucky in the first round of the NCAA Tournament in Indianapolis, stunning the Gainbridge Fieldhouse crowd that was packed with shocked and sullen UK fans.

With the 85-79 win, Saint Peter's became just the 10th No. 15 seed to beat a No. 2 in the 37 years since the field expanded to 64 teams. The upset happens less than 7 percent of the time.

And then, to add the cherry to the sundae, Saint Peter's upset 31-win Murray State in the second-round, too, advancing to the East Regional semifinals in Philadelphia, where No. 3-seed Purdue awaits on Friday night. (Gametime 7:09 p.m. ET, TV: CBS)

Saint Peter's, who's 21-11 on the season and finished second in their league to Rick Pitino's Iona team before winning the Metro Atlantic conference tournament, is just the third No. 15 seed to make it to the second week. Both of the other two survivors lost in the regional semifinals, which means the giddy Cinderella story usually ends here.

The madness, it happens. We all enjoy it, but for Purdue coach Matt Painter, it's impossible to get caught up in all the upsets across the country during the first week of the tournament because he's so busy just worrying about his own team.

"You're going to have some regions that have been that way before, and then you have some regions where it just goes status quo and the top seeds win,'' Painter said. "Percentages obviously say the top seeds are going to win more often than the other teams, but that's what makes this tournament so unpredictable.

"When you're not in the tournament, we look at it like you guys, but when you're in the tournament, we don't look at it like you guys do at all. People want to talk to you about everything that's going on and you're not following everything that's going on, you're worried about your next game. You see highlights, you see things, and people say. 'what do you think of this?' Then, when you don't have a good comment, people look at you like you're crazy. Well, I'm not following everything, I was just worried about (Yale and) Texas (all weekend).''

The No. 15 seeds haver a 10-138 record against the No. 2 seeds since 1985, the year the bracket was upped to 64 teams. That's a .069 winning percentage.

Here are the stunning upsets by No. 15 seeds over No. 2 seeds through the years:

1991 — Richmond def. Syracuse, 73-69
1993 — Santa Clara def. Arizona, 64-61
1997 — Coppin State def. South Carolina, 78-65
2001 — Hampton def. Iowa State, 58-57
2012 — Lehigh def. Duke, 75-70
2012* — Norfolk State def. Missouri, 86-84
2013 — Florida Gulf Coast def. Georgetown, 78-68
2016 — Middle Tennessee def. Michigan State, 90-81
2021** — Oral Roberts def. Ohio State, 75-72
2022 — Saint Peter's def. Kentucky, 85-79

* 2012 was the only year where two No. 15s won in the same tournament.

** The 2021 tournament was played in a bubble exclusively in Indiana because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Cinderella is a usually short story

The upsets of a top seed always make for great theater, fueling the "March Madness'' aspect of the NCAA Tournament. The fact that there's only been 10 wins by a 15-seed in 37 years shows how rare it is.

Even more dramatic, a No. 1 seed has lost to a No. 16 seed only once in 148 tries. That was Virginia in 2018, losing to Maryland-Baltimore County. The Cavaliers have been able to avoid all the criticism that came with that loss, though, because they came back and won a national championship the following year, as all 2019 Purdue basketball fans know all too well.

But those Thursday and Friday stunners by the No. 15 seed have had very little carryover. Seven of the nine underdogs were beaten in their second-round games on the ensuing Saturday or Sunday, not making it out of the first week.

Here's what those No. 15 winners did in their second-round games:

1991 — No. 10 seed Temple def. Richmond, 77-64
1993 — No. 7 seed Temple def. Santa Clara, 68-57
1997 — No. 10 seed Texas def. Coppin State, 82-81
2001 — No. 10 seed Georgetown def. Hampton, 76-57
2012 — No. 10 seed Xavier def. Lehigh, 70-58
2012 — No. 7 seed Florida def. Norfolk State, 84-50
2013 — Florida Gulf Coast def. San Diego State, 81-71
2016 — No. 10 seed Syracuse def. Middle Tennessee, 75-50
2021 — Oral Roberts def. Florida, 81-78
2022 — Saint Peter's def. Murray State, 70-60

Only two No. 15 seeds — Florida Gulf Coast in 2013 and Oral Roberts last year — were able to keep their run going to the Sweet 16. And both lost there, so no No. 15 seed as ever won a game after the first week.

Here's what they did in their two regional second-round games:

2013 — No. 3 seed Florida def. Florida Gulf Coast, 62-50
2021 — No. 3 seed Arkansas def. Oral Roberts, 72-70

The 2013 Florida Gulf Coast team, coached by current USC coach Andy Enfield, beat No. 2 Georgetown, ironically, in Philadelphia and then knocked off No. 7 seed San Diego State in the second round. Their tourney run ended in the regional semifinals, falling to No. 3 seed Florida 62-50 in Arlington, Texas.

Last year, Oral Roberts of the Summit League upset Ohio State 75-72 in overtime and then beat No. 7 seed Florida 81-78 in the second round. They got beat by No. 3 seed Arkansas 72-70 in the regional semifinals in Indianapolis, losing on a basket by the Razorbacks' Davonte Davis with 2.9 seconds to go.

Last year, Oral Roberts was led by 6-foot-8 forward Kevin Obanor, who scored 30 points in the win over the Buckeyes and 28 two days later against Florida. Ironically, he's in the 2022 Sweet 16 too, but with a new team. He transferred to Texas Tech in the offseason.

Making it to second weekend is 'Sweet'

Saint Peter's has never played in the Sweet 16 before. In fact, the win over Kentucky was their first-ever NCAA Tournament win. They are also the first MAAC school to make it to the Sweet 16, so this is some uncharted territory.

It's old hat for Purdue, their fourth trip in five years and their sixth under Painter. Only Michigan and Gonzaga have been to all five Sweet 16s since 2017. This is Purdue's 13th trip to Sweet 16 in school history.

"I had a lot of fun out there,'' Purdue senior Trevion Williams said after beating Texas on Sunday to get back to the Sweet 16. "Just knowing what I've been through with those guys, it means a lot to be in this position. This is what we work for. We put ourselves in this position and we fought.

"Obviously, last year we lost in the first round (to No. 13 seed North Texas), but I've said it before and I say it all the time, it's good to have guys come back that have been through it. I think everybody's been through it and they knew what was on the line, they knew what it meant to our seniors to get to the next round.''

That early-round upset last year taught Purdue a lot. So has history, because Purdue has lost 16 times to a lower seed in the NCAA Tournament, by far the most of any Big Ten team.

That's why they get well prepared for everyone now.

"You've got to respect every team, and understand that everybody's here for a reason and that's the good thing about the tournament. because anybody can get beat on any given night,'' Williams said. "So you've just got to be prepared, and you've got to be locked in. It all goes to the small things, those little things, boxing out, rebounding, hitting free throws. That stuff means so much more this time of year. It's all about understanding what's on the line.

"(With Saint Peter's), we're going to dive into film when we get back. Just got to hit singles against them and be as physical as possible and just be ready, and respect them as a team. They made it this far obviously, so we've got to respect them.''

Purdue sophomore guard Ethan Morton knows that they can't take anyone lightly either, certainly not this time of year. They learned their lesson last March — the hard way.

"Everybody's here for a reason, and they've shown us the past few days,'' Morton said of Saint Peter's. "Obviously, we've been watching. They can beat really great teams, and they are a great team, really well-coached. They're going to come out with a chip on their shoulder and we have a little bit of experience seeing a smaller conference team in the tournament last year.

"I'm not going to say we underestimated (North Texas), but I don't think we were as ready as we thought we were. So I think we can definitely draw on that experience knowing we're going to need our best basketball, not just in that game but from here on out if we want to go where we want to go.''

Purdue star Jaden Ivey, who scored a total of 40 points in the two wins over Yale and Texas, knows that the Boilermakers just have to keep their foot on the gas against a Saint Peter's team that's suddenly playing with a lot of confidence.

"We have to come out with the same intensity that we had (Sunday) and just listen to what the coaches say and what we talk about pregame,'' Ivey said. "It all comes into play in the game, so we've just got to stay focused. And, you know, obviously we're happy to be in the Sweet 16, but we've got to win the next game, too.''

Watch Purdue postgame interviews after win over Texas

Following Purdue's win over Texas on Sunday, coach Matt Painter and players Trevion Williams, Jaden Ivey and Ethan Morton met with the media. Here is the full video of their postgame interview. (Note: the links to the transcripts are below.)

Cinderella is a usually short story

Making it to second weekend is 'Sweet'

Watch Purdue postgame interviews after win over Texas

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