Boiler Breakdown: Toughest Stretch, Pivotal Games and Must-Wins on Purdue's Schedule
The second season of the Ryan Walters era has arrived in West Lafayette. Purdue will enter the year with one of the league's toughest schedules and low expectations after finishing the 2023 campaign with a 4-8 record.
Despite what Big Ten writers believe, there's a lot of hope and optimism surrounding the Boilermakers in 2024. Will the program take a step forward in Walters' second year?
Let's break down Purdue's daunting 2024 schedule and take a look at the toughest stretch, pivotal games and must-win matchups this season.
The early bye week
- Date: Saturday, Sept. 7 (After playing Indiana State on Aug. 31 and prior to hosting Notre Dame on Sept. 14).
When the final schedule was released, Purdue wasn't too thrilled about having a bye week on the second Saturday of the season. But Walters is now a fan of the early off week.
The Boilermakers have suffered some injuries in fall camp that will keep significant players sidelined for the season opener against Indiana State — most notably cornerback Nyland Green and receiver CJ Smith, both transfers from Georgia.
So, Purdue gets the opportunity to play a game, address any many issues or concerns schematically and have two weeks to prepare and heal for the rivalry game against Notre Dame.
Toughest stretch
- Dates & opponents: vs. No. 3 Oregon (Friday, Oct. 18); vs. Northwestern (Saturday, Nov. 2); at No. 2 Ohio State (Saturday, Nov. 9); vs. No. 8 Penn State (Saturday, Nov. 16).
The four-game stretch from Oct. 18 through Nov. 16 is as difficult as any in the Big Ten. Purdue will play three preseason top-10 opponents in that window. We'll really see what the Boilers are made of during that month.
It begins on Friday, Oct. 18 when Purdue welcomes No. 3 Oregon to Ross-Ade Stadium. The Ducks are expected to have a high-flying offense again this season, led by transfer quarterback Dillon Gabriel.
Purdue gets a week off before hosting a Northwestern team that finished 8-5 last season. Then, on Nov. 9, the Boilers travel to Columbus for a showdown against Ohio State. The Buckeyes are ranked No. 2 in the preseason poll and wll likely field the best defense Walters' squad will face all season.
As if that's not enough, Purdue rounds out the brutal four-game stretch at home against No. 8 Penn State. The Boilers have historically struggled against the Nittany Lions, having lost 10 straight games in the head-to-head series.
Not many teams will face a stretch that difficult this season. Just going 2-2 in those four games would be a monumental accomplishment.
Must-win games
- Dates & opponents: vs. Indiana State (Saturday, Aug. 31); at Oregon State (Saturday, Sept. 21); at Michigan State (Friday, Nov. 22).
Beating Indiana State is a no-brainer, right? So, let's go ahead and break football's greatest rule — never count the wins! — and assume Purdue starts the season 1-0.
There are two more games on the schedule the Boilermakers have to win if they hope to be in the bowl conversation at the end of the year. Getting a victory over Oregon State would give Walters and his team a huge momentum boost entering into the Big Ten portion of the season.
A late November game against Michigan State is also an important contest for Purdue. New coach Jonathan Smith did a lot of work in the transfer portal this offseason, but the Boilers should have a more talented roster than the one assembled in East Lansing.
Three games seems like a small number of "must-wins" for a team, but there aren't a lot of opponents on the schedule that Purdue is head-and-shoulders above from a talent perspective.
Pivotal stretch
- Dates & opponents: at Oregon State (Saturday, Sept. 21); vs. Nebraska (Saturday, Sept. 28); at Wisconsin (Saturday, Oct. 5); at Illinois (Saturday, Oct. 12).
Want to know if you should think about bowl plans this winter? The stretch from mid-September through mid-October will probably help you decide.
A four-game stretch from Sept. 21 through Oct. 12 will show us whether or not Purdue has taken a big step forward. The opponents in that span are Oregon State, Nebraska, Wisconsin and Illinois. Those four teams combined for a 25-25 record in 2023.
Will Purdue win all four of those games? Probably not. But the Boilermakers should match up well with each of those four opponents. A 3-1 record isn't an impossibility — far from it.
The in-state rivalries
- Dates & opponents: vs. No. 7 Notre Dame (Saturday, Sept. 14); at Indiana (Saturday, Nov. 30)
Basically, Purdue is starting and ending the 2024 season with a pair of in-state rivalry games. It hosts Notre Dame on Sept. 14 and closes out the campaign in Bloomington against Indiana on Nov. 30.
Both games are high stakes, but for different reasons.
This year's game against the Fighting Irish marks the first time the two teams have played in West Lafayette since 2013. Notre Dame has also won six straight games in the series. This once-annual rivlary is finally renewed and Purdue would like to get a win on its home turf.
As for Indiana, new coach Curt Cignetti added gasoline to a fire that burns 365 days per year. When he was hired, he shouted out "Purdue sucks!" in front of an Assembly Hall crowd. The Boilers would love to prove him wrong.
These should be two fun rivalry games to help kickstart and close out Purdue's football season.
Prediction
- Record: 6-6 (4-5 in Big Ten)
First of all, I'm not a big fan of predicting final records. There are too many factors and too many variables that unfold throughout the course of the season. But, I do think Purdue is good enough to hit six wins — even if the Boilers were picked to finish last in the BIg Ten.
Yes, the schedule is incredibly challenging. But even if you believe Purdue loses all four games to the ranked opponents on the schedule — Notre Dame, Oregon, Ohio State and Penn State — there are still eight games the Boilers could win (notice that "could" is in italics).
Plus, with three of those games against ranked opponents at Ross-Ade Stadium, who knows what wild things could happen?
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