History says nonconference record is no precursor for what's to come for Purdue
Purdue struggled in the nonconference portion of the schedule this season, going 1-2 with loses to Nevada and TCU. Their lone win came against Vanderbilt.
Let’s see how that compares to Purdue’s nonconference games the last five seasons and how those teams finished the season:
2018: A 1-2 start, but still a bowl game
Last season, Purdue fared similar to this season in their nonconference games, finishing with a record of 1-2. They found themselves on the losing side of games to Eastern Michigan and Missouri. Their one win came against Boston College. That season, Purdue went on to finish with a record of 6-6 and contended in the Big Ten West for a while. The Boilermakers earned an invitation to the Music City Bowl against Auburn, where they lost 63-14.
2017: A 2-1 start, and 7 wins with bowl win over Arizona
In 2017 the Boilermakers had success in the nonconference schedule. They finished 2-1 with wins over Ohio and Missouri in Jeff Brohm's first season at Purdue. The one loss came at the hands of Louisville and former Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Lamar Jackson. That season, however, Purdue finished below .500 in Big Ten games (4-5), leading to a 6-6 record. The six wins were good enough to get the Boilermakers to the Foster Farms Bowl against Arizona, where they won 38-35 in a thriller.
2016: 2 nonconference wins, but only 1 in the Big Ten
In 2016, Purdue was also successful in its three nonconference games, finishing 2-1 with wins over Eastern Kentucky and Nevada. Cincinnati gave them their only loss in the first year of the expanded nine-game Big Ten schedule. That success in the nonconference games didn’t lead to overall success, though. Purdue finished that season just 1-8 in Big Ten games, leading them to a final record of 3-9. Former coach Darrell Hazell was fired in midseason.
2015: Nothing good about that 2-10 overall season
The 2015 season was the worst season over the last five years for Purdue. They finished 1-3 in non-conference games, losing to Marshall, Virginia Tech and Bowling Green. The one win came against in-state opponent Indiana State. Those struggles carried over to the Big Ten portion of the schedule where they finished 1-7 for an overall record of 2-10.
2014: 2 early wins, but only 1 Big Ten win again
The 2014 season was very similar to both 2015 and 2016. Purdue finished with a 2-2 record in nonconference games. The Boilers had wins over Western Michigan and Southern Illinois, while they lost to Central Michigan and Notre Dame. They struggled during the Big Ten games, going 1-7 for a final record of 3-9.
As we can see from the graph and information above, nonconference games rarely tell the full story of how a season will turn out for Purdue.
Fans shouldn’t overreact after a 1-2 start to the season, either. All it takes is to look back to last season, a season in which they also went 1-2 in nonconference games but found themselves beating No. 2-ranked Ohio State during the regular season and playing in a bowl game at the end of the season.
For some teams, early-season successes and failures can paint a picture, but for Purdue, that hasn’t been the case.
