Point Spread: 5 Things to Know About Purdue-UConn NCAA Title Game
GLENDALE, Ariz. — We've got a matchup of the two best teams in college basketball when Purdue and Connecticut meet for all the marbles on Monday night in the NCAA Tournament championship game.
They are both No. 1 seeds, with UConn (36-3) winning the East Regional and then knocking off Alabama 86-72 in the national semifinals on Saturday night at State Farm Stadium in suburban Phoenix. Purdue (34-4) won the Midwest Regional and knocked off N.C. State 63-50 Saturday.
There are a lot of interesting nuggets for the interested gamblers out there. As of 5 p.m. ET, the line has stayed steady for two days, with Connecticut listed as a 6.5-point favorite according to the Fanduel.com gambling website. The over/under has dropped to 143.5, and I've got a lot to say about that below.
Here are five items of interest on Monday night's game:
1. Connecticut 11-0 vs. spread in last two NCAA Tournaments
I've been on the Connecticut bandwagon for two years now because I had the luxury of watching them up close and personal last year in the first and second rounds in Albany, N.Y. I was there covering Indiana, but the two teams were in different regionals and played in different pods. UConn, a No. 4 seed, played during the day, so I watched them closely without really having a reason to write about them.
They destroyed Iona and Saint Mary's, and their 15-point beatdown of the Gaels really impressed me because I had seen them blow out Indiana the year previously in the NCAA Tournament. After that weekend, I told a lot of my gambling friends that I that UConn would win it all. They did.
They crushed everyone on their run to a title last year, and they've been doing the same thing in 2024. They've won and covered every game so far in 2024. They covered in all six games last year, too, but were single-digit favorites in all six as well.
Winning 11 in a row is really something. So is covering 11 times in a row.
2. Purdue 5-0 vs. spread in tourney, too
Purdue has been playing its best basketball here at the end of the season. It shows in one area for sure — the Boilermakers have covered the spread in all five NCAA Tournament games so far.
Here's what they've done so far:
- March 22 — Beat No. 16 seed Grambling State 78-50 in the first round of the NCAA Tournament in Indianapolis, Ind., as a 26.5-point favorite (covered). The score (128) went under the 137.5 over/under total.
- March 24 — Beat No. 8 seed Utah State 106-67 in the second round of the NCAA Tournament in Indianapolis, Ind., as a 11.5-point favorite (covered). The score (173) went over the 151.5 over/under total.
- March 29— Beat No. 5 seed Gonzaga 80-68 in the regional semifinals of the NCAA Tournament in Detroit, Mich. as a 4.5-point favorite (covered). The score (173) went over the 151.5 over/under total.
- March 31— Beat No. 2 seed Tennessee 72-66 in the regional finals of the NCAA Tournament in Detroit, Mich. as a 3.5-point favorite (covered). The score (138) went under the 146.5 over/under total.
- April 6— Beat No.11 seed North Carolina State 63-50 in the national semifinals of the NCAA Tournament in Glendale, Ariz., as a 9.5-point favorite (covered). The score (113) went under the 146.5 over/under total.
3. Can't ignore UConn's double-digit streak
Connecticut looks to be the first repeat champions since Billy Donovan's Florida teams did it in 2006 and 2007. The Huskies have done it in style so far, winning 11 games in a row by double digits. No one has gotten within 13 points.
Here's what they've done the past two years:
2023: First round — Beat No. 13 seed Iona 87-86; Second round — Beat No. 5 seed Saint Mary's 70-55; Regional semifinals — Beat No. 8 seed Arkansas 88-65; Regional finals — Beat No. 3 seed Gonzaga 82-54; National semifinal — Beat No. 5 seed Miami 72-59; National final — Beat No. 5 seed San Diego State 76-59.
2024: First round — Beat No. 16 seed Stetson 91-52; Second round — Beat No. 9 seed Northwestern 75-58; Regional semifinals — Beat No. 5 seed San Diego State 82-52; Regional finals — Beat No. 3 seed Illinois 77-52; National semifinal — Beat No. 4 seed Alabama 86-72.
That's impressive, but keep in mind tonight that Purdue is the highest seed they've ever played. They've never had to play a No. 1 or No. 2 until tonight. They've played two 3s, a 4, four No. 5s, an 8, a 9 a 13 and a 16.
4. Strange number on the over/under
As of 5 p.m. ET on Friday, the over/under is at 143.5 according to the Fanduel.com gambling website. It's dropped from the 146.5 opening line, and that kind of surprises me. At least a little.
I think both teams are capable of scoring against the other, and it seems a little low. Purdue has scored 3,151 points this year, No. 4 in the country. UConn has scored 3,095, which is a spot behind at No. 5. They average 82.9 and 81.4 points respectively, and that's 164.3 total.
So that under, seems like an obvious lean, doesn't?
5. Purdue after a loss
Purdue is 34-4 on the season, and all they've lost all year were three Big Ten road games and a neutral-site loss to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Tournament in Minneapolis. Their losses came at Northwestern, Nebraska and Ohio State.
They were favored in all four losses, by 5.5 at Northwestern, and 7.5 at Nebraska and Ohio State. They were also a 5.5-point favorite over Wisconsin in the Big Ten Tournament, but lost 76-75 in overtime.
The most interesting nugget about the losses? It's that they haven't bothered Purdue one bit. They've gone on winning streaks of 7, 8 and 6 games. They can make it six in a row again with a win on Monday night, and that would be the sweetest of all.
For some context, Purdue has been an underdog only twice all season — and they won both games. They were a 1.5-point underdog to then No. 1 Arizona in their meeting in Indianapolis, but the Boilermakers won 92-84. They were also a 2.5-point underdog on March 5 at Illinois but won 77-71.
Related stories on Purdue basketball
- LOOK BACK AT PURDUE'S 1980 FINAL FOUR RUN: As Purdue prepares to play in the nationla championship on Monday night, it's a great time to look back and reflect on the impressive run the Boilermakers made to the Final Four in 1980. CLICK HERE
- INDIANA SCHOOLS GO ON 2-HOUR DELAY FOR TITLE GAME: School corporations in Lafayette, West Lafayette and Tippecanoe County will be operating on a 2-hour delay on Tuesday so students can stay up late and watch Purdue play UConn in the title game. CLICK HERE
- PAINTER THANKFUL FOR MORTON, FURST: Most of the talk surrounding Purdue has been related to Zach Edey, Braden Smith and Lance Jones. But coach Matt Painter doesn't want you to forget about the sacrifices made be Ethan Morton and Caleb Furst. CLICK HERE
- TOM BREW COLUMN: In 2018, Virginia became the first No. 1 seed to lose to a No. 16 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The following season, the Cavaliers won a national championship. How Purdue learned from Virginia — and from its own failures in the NCAA Tournament. CLICK HERE
- EDEY NAMED NATIONAL PLAYER OF THE YEAR: For a second straight season, Zach Edey has been named the Naismith National Player of the Year. He averaged 24.9 points and 12.2 rebounds for Purdue this season. CLICK HERE
- HOW TO WATCH PURDUE-UCONN: No. 1 seeds Purdue and UConn will meet in the national championship on Monday night at State Farm Stadium. Here's how you can watch and listen to the showdown in Phoenix. CLICK HERE
Tom Brew is an award-winning journalist who's worked at some America's finest newspapers, including the Tampa Bay (Fla.) Times, the South Florida Sun-Sentinel and the Indianapolis Star. He also owns the book publishing company, Hilltop30 Publishing Group, and he has written four books and published 16 others.