Point Spread: Purdue Big Favorite Over NC State in National Semifinal at Final Four
PHOENIX, Ariz. — It's been a long time since Purdue has been in the Final Four, 44 years to be exact. Coach Matt Painter — and Gene Keady before him — have had plenty of teams that were good enough to get here, but none did.
This year's team is different, though. After beating Gonzaga and Tennessee last week in the Midwest Regional in Detroit, the Boilers have finally punched their ticket to the Big Dance.
Being here isn't enough, though. It's about winning it all for the first time ever, and it starts Saturday with a national semifinal game against NC State, a Cinderella story the past three weeks. Oddsmakers think the shoe finally drops on the Wolfpack. Purdue is a 9.5-point favorite according to the Fanduel.com gambling website. The over/under is 146.5
Purdue has won and covered all four of its NCAA Tournament games to reach the Final Four for just the third time in program history. They lost in the title game to UCLA in 1969 and lost in the national semifinals in 1980 at Market Square Arena in Indianapolis.
NC State has been on a postseason run for the ages, winning — and covering — five straight ACC tournament games just to make the NCAA Tournament field. They won and covered, as least for many in all four NCAA games as well, and have impressed as underdogs in upset wins over Texas Tech, Marquette and Duke.
Purdue is 33-4 overall and won the Big Ten regular season title with a 17-3 record, three games ahead of Illinois and five games in front of Nebraska and Northwestern. Their three league losses all came on the road, at Northwestern, Nebraska and Ohio State. They also lost to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Tournament semifinals, but won the other 32 games.
The Boilermakers opened the season ranked No. 1 in the Kenpom.com computer rankings. Now they're at No. 3 as of Friday morning.
Purdue is 22-15 against the spread this season. Here's what they've done against the spread all season.
Purdue vs. the point spread this season
Nov. 6 — Beat Samford 98-45 at home as a 19.5-point favorite (covered). The score (143) went under the 144.5 over/under total.
Nov. 10— Beat Morehead State 87-57 at home as an 28.5-point favorite (covered). The score (144) went over the 138.5 over/under total.
Nov. 13 — Beat Xavier 83-71 at home in the Gavitt Games as a 16.5-point favorite (did not cover). The score (154) went under the 149.5 over/under total.
Nov. 20— Beat No. 11 Gonzaga 73-63 at Maui Invitational in Hawaii as a 5.5-point favorite (covered). The score (136) went under the 152.5 over/under total
Nov. 21— Beat No. 7 Tennessee 71-67 at Maui Invitational in Hawaii as a 3.5-point favorite (covered). The score (138) went over the 134.5 over/under total.
Nov. 22 — Beat No. 4 Marquette 78-75 at Maui Invitational in Hawaii as a 2.5-point favorite (covered). The score (153) went over the 145.5 over/under total.
Nov. 28— Beat Texas Southern 99-67 at home as a 31.5-point favorite (covered). The score (166) went over the 139.5 over/under total.
Dec. 1 — Lost at Northwestern 92-88 in overtime as a 5.5-point favorite (did not cover). The score (180) went over the 136.5 over/under total.
Dec. 4 — Beat Iowa 87-68 at home as a 14.5-point favorite (covered). The score (155) went under the 158.5 over/under total.
Dec. 9— Beat Alabama 92-86 in Toronto as an 5.5-point favorite (covered). The score (178) went over the 161.5 over/under total.
Dec. 16 — Beat No. 1 Arizona 92-84 in Indianapolis as a 1.5-point underdog (covered). The score (176) went over the 159.5 over/under total.
Dec. 21— Beat Jacksonville 100-57 at home as a 32.5-point favorite (covered). The score (157) went over the 148.5 over/under total.
Dec. 29— Beat Eastern Kentucky 80-53 at home as a 28.5-point favorite (did not cover). The score (138) went over the 134.5 over/under total.
Jan. 2 — Won at Maryland 67-53 as a 6.5-point favorite (covered). The score (120) went under the 140.5 over/under total.
Jan. 5— Beat No. 9 Illinois 83-78 at home as a 10.5-point favorite (did not cover). The score (161) went over the 152.5 over/under total.
Jan. 9 — Lost at Nebraska 88-72 as a 7.5-point favorite (did not cover). The score (160) went over the 150.5 over/under total
Jan. 13— Beat Penn State 95-78 at home as an 18.5-point favorite (did not cover). The score (173) went over the 151.5 over/under total.
Jan. 16 — Won at Indiana 87-66 as a 9.5-point favorite (covered). The score (153) went over the 151.5 total.
Jan. 20 — Won at Iowa 84-70 as a 7.5-point favorite (covered). The score (154) went under the 164.5 total.
Jan. 23— Beat Michigan 99-67 at home as a 17.5-point favorite (covered). The score (166) went over the 153.5 over/under total.
Jan. 28 — Won at Rutgers 68-60 as a 10.5-point favorite (did not cover). The score (128) went under the 142.5 total.
Jan. 31— Beat Northwestern 105-96 in overtime at home as a 14.5-point favorite (did not cover). The score (201) went over the 141.5 over/under total.
Feb. 4 — Won at No. 6 Wisconsin 75-69 as a 1.5-point favorite (covered). The score (144) went over the 143.5 total.
Feb, 10— Beat Indiana 79-59 at home as a 17.5-point favorite (covered). The score (138) went under the 148.5 over/under total.
Feb, 15— Beat Minnesota 84-76 at home as a 16.5-point favorite (did not cover). The score (160) went over the 145.5 over/under total.
Feb. 18 — Lost at Ohio State 73-69 as a 7.5-point favorite (did not cover). The score (142) went under the 148.5 over/under total.
Feb. 22 — Beat Rutgers 96-68 at home as a 14.5-point favorite (covered). The score (164) went over the 139.5 over/under total.
Feb. 25 — Won at Michigan 84-76 as a 13.5-point favorite (did not cover). The score (160) went over the 151.5 over/under total.
March 2 — Beat Michigan State 80-74 at home as a 10.5-point favorite (did not cover). The score (154) went over the 145.5 over/under total.
March 5 — Won at Illinois 77-71 as a 2.5-point underdog (covered). The score (148) went under the 164.5 over/under total.
March 10 — Beat Wisconsin 78-70 at home as a 9.5-point favorite (did not cover). The score (148) went over the 147.5 over/under total.
March 15 — Beat Michigan State 67-62 in Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals in Minneapolis, Minn. as a 7.5-point favorite (did not cover). The score (129) went under the 141.5 over/under total.
March 16 — Lost to Wisconsin 76-75 in overtime in Big Ten Tournament semifinals in Minneapolis, Minn. as a 5.5-point favorite (did not cover). The score (151) went under the 141.5 over/under total.
March 22 — Beat No. 16 seed Grambling State 78-50 in the first round of the NCAA Tournament in Indianapolis, Ind., as a 26.5-point favorite (covered). The score (128) went under the 137.5 over/under total.
March 24 — Beat No. 8 seed Utah State 106-67 in the second round of the NCAA Tournament in Indianapolis, Ind., as a 11.5-point favorite (covered). The score (173) went over the 151.5 over/under total.
March 29— Beat No. 5 seed Gonzaga 80-68 in the regional semifinals of the NCAA Tournament in Detroit, Mich. as a 4.5-point favorite (covered). The score (173) went over the 151.5 over/under total.
March 31— Beat No. 2 seed Tennessee 72-66 in the regional finals of the NCAA Tournament in Detroit, Mich. as a 3.5-point favorite (covered). The score (138) went under the 146.5 over/under total.
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Tom Brew is an award-winning journalist who's worked at some America's finest newspapers, including the Tampa Bay (Fla.) Times, the South Florida Sun-Sentinel and the Indianapolis Star. He also owns the book publishing company, Hilltop30 Publishing Group, and he has written four books and published 16 others.