Checking in on potential Pac-12 expansion targets

There are a handful of potential targets that could be great fits for the Pac-12

With reports that the Big 12 is making advances with their media rights deal, the Pac-12 is likely feeling the pressure to make advances in their next stages of media rights and expansion. 

As explained by Pac-12 insider John Canzano who touched on expansion earlier in the week, the Pac-12 has an order of operations (shoutout PEMDAS) in terms of how they want to get things done. Canzano explained that the media rights deal goes first, and expansion comes second saying:

There’s also an order of operations here: 1) Media rights negotiations; and 2) conference expansion. The Big 12’s media rights negotiations are trailing the Pac-12’s by about a year. I think San Diego State will eventually land in the Pac-12 Conference. 

This was of course was said before we learned that the Big 12 is on track to secure a new deal in a few weeks. There is now a whole new pressure on the Pac-12, because if the Big 12 is able to secure a better deal, Pac-12 teams may begin to peak over at what's going on in the Big 12 and consider leaving. Per usual, the Pac-12 is very private on where they are currently at in terms of moves, as the latest information that we received was that they are continuing to seek out a new TV deal that also includes streaming rights from a place such as Amazon or Apple.

Either way, if the conference wants to stay afloat, expansion is imminent. That is why I decided to do a midway check in on where the expansion candidates currently stand this season. However, I do want to note that expansion candidates are more looked at for the value they bring rather than the wins and losses they have right now. Expansion whether it is the Big Ten, Big 12, or Pac-12 is all about adding competitive teams that bringing in valuable markets. None of these schools will replicate the value lost in USC and UCLA, but they will help the conference in one of the two categories.  

Let's take a look at how the potential Pac-12 expansion targets are doing so far.

San Diego State (3-3)

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San Diego State would give the Pac-12 access to the Southern California market, which they are obviously losing, but unfortunately for the Aztecs it has been a relatively down year compared to the past couple seasons. The team's passing game is abysmal, ranking No. 127 in passing offense. Their starting quarterback Braxton Burmeister is moving to wide receiver after some injury issues, and the emergence of former safety Jalen Mayden who will now be the signal caller. The program itself has experienced success at the Group of Five level making a bowl game every year from 2010-2019, and is widely viewed as a shoe-in to join the Pac-12. It is a very attractive school, and being in a Power 5 conference would only help them. 

ESPN FPI Ranking: 106

FPI Projected Wins: 5.7

SMU (3-3)

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The Mustangs aren't having the year that they would have hoped coming off last year's 8-4 season, but to be fair they do have a new staff after Sonny Dykes left for TCU. Adding them to the Pac-12 doesn't geographically flow, but it grants better access to the Dallas Fort-Worth area for Pac-12 schools. I personally view them as the second best candidate available. 

ESPN FPI Ranking: 53

FPI Projected Wins: 6.5

UNLV (4-3)

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UNLV got off to a great 4-1 start, but their star quarterback Doug Brumfield went down with a concussion a couple weeks ago and they have dropped two straight. This is the best this program has looked in quite some time, as just seven games in they have already tied for their most wins since 2019. They offer the Las Vegas market which is No. 40 in market rankings. Not sure if they would be in contention for either of the two spots if the Pac-12 only takes two schools, but if they add four they definitely should be given a look. 

ESPN FPI Ranking: 108

FPI Projected Wins: 6.3

Fresno State (2-4)

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Continuing the trend of a struggling program that has been really good in the past couple years, Fresno State has struggled with injury issues all season. They lost their star quarterback Jake Haener, and there is a huge drop off between him and his backup. This program has had three 10 win seasons since 2017, and while they don't really bring in a big market, they do bring competitiveness. 

ESPN FPI Ranking: 88

FPI Projected Wins: 6.5

Boise State (4-2)

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Boise State got off to a poor start, made some staff adjustments after a loss to UTEP, and have since blown out their last two opponents. This is another program that doesn't bring a great market, but they are constantly good in football. Dating back to 1996 they have more 10 win seasons than seasons with single digit wins, which is why they have always been viewed as one of the teams from the Group of Five that would be the next one to make the jump up to a Power 5. Similar to UNLV, I'm not sure if they would make the cut if the conference took in two schools, but if they take in more they will get a look. 

ESPN FPI Ranking: 65

FPI Projected Wins: 8.7