Predicting the outcome of Stanford's Week 6 game against Oregon State

Oregon State heads to the farm to play Stanford in what will be a tightly contested late-night showdown

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Stanford is glad to be playing a team that isn't ranked and as explosive as its last three opponents. However, the same could be said about Oregon State whose last two opponents have been ranked. Another thing they have in common is that both teams have won the games they were supposed to, but when they faced great opponents they didn't fare too well. It'll be interesting to see how this one plays out as they are closer in competition than most think.

Reason Oregon State Will Win 

Oregon State has a good defensive front 7, which can cause trouble for Tanner McKee and the Cardinal offense who have allowed 16 sacks in the past three games. If Oregon State plays how they played against USC, which they lost due to turnovers, then they will be in a great position to win the game. They have created turnovers against the teams that they were closer in skill with, and that is a big reason they will win against Stanford. They can create turnovers against a Stanford team that turns the ball over at one of the highest rates in the country. 

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Driving down the field and scoring on the Stanford defense shouldn't be an issue for the Beavers offense regardless of which quarterback is under center. The Cardinal defense doesn't take away the ball, and gives up around 200 yards rushing to opposing offenses. Another way for the Beavers to attack Stanford is on the ground with Deshaun Fenwick who is averaging 4.7 yards per carry. If you look at the Beaver pass blocking, that will not be an issue as they are one of the better pass-blocking teams in the nation, and Stanford isn't great at getting after the quarterback. Oregon State may be able to sneak away a close win because they have a good defense and the offense is going up against a bad Stanford defense. 

Reason Stanford Will Win

Stanford has faced three straight tough opponents, and may bounce back against an  opponent at their level. Stanford will get to face an Oregon State team that is coming off back-to-back losses to ranked opponents as well. Now Stanford will need to get the run game going early. Oregon State allows 150 rush yards per game and Casey Filkins has been running the ball hard. Running the ball and using the play action off of it will help Tanner McKee get comfortable. Now hopefully Stanford doesn't use the slow-developing run-pass option they have been running recently. Instead, they should go to regular play action more for McKee. Running the ball will be huge for Stanford, especially with an offensive line that is a bit injured. That is how they'll be able to limit the front 7 of Oregon State. McKee should have time to find Michael Wilson and Elijah Higgins for a big play or two, which could be the difference in them winning or not. 

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Stanford's defense will either face Chance Nolan whose already thrown 8 interceptions this year or third-year freshman Ben Gulbranson. This is good news for the Cardinal defense. The quarterbacks are not going to beat them like their last three opponents, who were able to throw it all over the yard. Now it'll be an opportunity time to create some turnovers from a team that also turns the ball over frequently. Stanford's defense may be able to generate pressure or disguise looks against the quarterbacks that'll create takeaways. 

Also, Stanford is at home and is trying to turn things around, I'd imagine the coaching staff may be on the hot seat, which means they'll be a bit more aggressive. The team is playing for a chance to help their coaches and hopefully win enough games that'll sneak them into a bowl game if they can win 5 of their remaining games. 

What Will Happen

The game starts late, teams have been eager to play a team that is on their level. It'll be a fun close game. Oregon State's offense struggles at quarterback and may throw a couple interceptions against a Stanford defense that has struggled and needs a pick me up. Stanford's offense has been okay, except for the turnovers. So the game will feature a few turnovers, I'd expect at least 2. Stanford is at home, which is an advantage in itself. The teams sort of mirror each other right now, which is why I am predicting it will be a three point game. I don't know who I'd pick to win this game, because I really believe it is a toss-up in the air. If I was forced to pick I'd choose Stanford to win, because I trust McKee more than Oregon States' quarterbacks. I would've rather not chosen a team to win this game, because I am not confident in choosing either of them. I only choose Stanford because of quarterback situations and Stanford being at home.