Predicting who the fourth Pac-12 expansion candidate could be
The Pac-12 expansion talks have really begun to heat up over the past few days, and it has sent social media into an all out debate as to where the conference actually stands.
What we do know based on Pac-12 insider John Canzano's latest report, is that the conference is looking at adding up to four programs. While he did explain that there is a chance that they stop at just two programs, which would likely be San Diego State and SMU, the conference is still kicking the tires on up to four programs.
Canzano was able to eliminate a handful of programs that have consistently been thrown around as possible fits, as Boise State, Fresno State, and UNLV are not considered to be candidates with Boise State and Fresno State being viewed as a better fit for the Big 12. However, San Diego State wasn't the lone Mountain West member getting a look, as Colorado State has emerged as a program that will get a look.
However, despite knowing who was out and the three schools that are candidates, there is one more mystery candidate that Canzano did not yet know at the time of his report.
As explained by Canzano, "Academic fit and culture are high among the Pac-12’s expansion criteria. But conference expansion is really about adding media value." With that criteria in mind, and the fact that the three other Mountain West programs not making the cut, that realistically leaves two programs out there that make sense. While geography has been thrown to the wayside by some, it wouldn't make sense for a program like USF who stands out academically and market wise to be a legitimate candidate. The pool of programs is not nearly as deep as most would think.
Here are those two programs that I think make the most sense.
Tulane
Tulane stands out among these candidates for a couple of reasons. For starters, the brand is at an all-time high following the program's No. 9 finish this past season that was capped off with a huge comeback win over USC. It would grant the Pac-12 access to New Orleans, which is a fertile recruiting area completely controlled by programs in the South. If the conference does in fact add four programs, SMU and Tulane would also give the Pac-12 more interest across the country.
New Orleans itself is home to the No. 50 market in the country, and Tulane also meets the academic threshold ranking as one of the best in the country. The university ranks an AAU program, and they rank as the No. 44 university in the country tied with schools like Northwestern and Georgia Tech according to US News.
Rice
Most people will scoff at the thought of Rice being a candidate, but if academics and media value are as important as the reports indicate, Rice is one of the premier academic institutions in the country. It ranks as the No. 15 university in the country behind programs like Vanderbilt and Brown, trailing only Stanford in terms of Pac-12 academic ranking. Football wise is where their case takes a huge hit, as the program hasn't finished above .500 since 2014.
Location wise, it is in Houston which ranks as the No. 8 television market in the country. It would make road trips to SMU that much more feasible for other sports, but this would likely not be a program that moves the needle as much as the Pac-12 would hope their new additions would.