Stanford football and all of those fourth downs

Jason Burke | Oct 19, 2024

Sep 20, 2024; Syracuse, New York, USA; Stanford Cardinal head coach Troy Taylor calls a time out against the Syracuse Orange during the second half at the JMA Wireless Dome. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-Imagn Images / Rich Barnes-Imagn Images

Stanford football has been going for it on fourth down fairly consistently this season, and earlier in the year, head coach Troy Taylor said that the analytics played a role in their decision-making process. So far this season, Stanford has gone for it 20 times in six games, meaning they're good for about three attempts per game.

So far this season, Taylor's group has converted ten of those 20 chances, good for 50%. The 20 chances also ranks as the second-most behind only Baylor, who have gone 11-for-21 on fourth down.

Because they've been going for it so often this season, Stanford Cardinal on SI dug into the data to see if the program has been seeing positive results from their consistent gambles. In short, it's been very boom or bust.

Of the ten times that Stanford has been successful, three of those prolonged drives have led to a touchdown for the Cardinal. While it doesn't count as a touchdown, the 27 yard conversion from Ashton Daniels to Elic Ayomanor against Syracuse put Stanford in field goal range, and ultimately led to the team winning in upset fashion.

Outside of those four scores, the Cardinal have also turned the ball over twice later in the drive, punted another time, have turned the ball over on downs twice, and have also seen the game end.

The ten times that the Cardinal have been unsuccessful, their opponents have been able to capitalize quite a bit, thanks to the shorter field that they've been gifted. Stanford opponents have scored five touchdowns when the Cardinal turn the ball over on downs, and have also missed a 39 yard field goal. When Stanford turns the ball over, it's typically right around midfield, or well into Stanford's own end, which sets up the opposition well.

Stanford opponents have also punted three times and have just run out the clock after a failed fourth down.

During his weekly press conference, coach Taylor was asked about the team's willingness to go for it on fourth down, and what role the analytics play in that process.

"We definitely use analytics as a tool, but we don't necessarily follow it to the t," Taylor said. "We've had a bunch of ones where [analytics] told us to go for it on fourth down and we didn't feel it was the right move."

Coach Taylor also mentioned that the opponent, the game situation, and where on the field the Cardinal are situated at that time as other factors that go into the decision of whether or not to go for it on fourth down.

By the looks of it, when they're up against a team that they may be fighting an uphill battle against, like Clemson, Virginia Tech and Notre Dame the past three weeks, they have gone for it three, three and four times. Both Clemson and Notre Dame were able to score two touchdowns each off of the Cardinal miscues, which led to those final scores being so lopsided in the end.

There's a chance that Notre Dame only puts up 35 instead of 49 last week, considering that they were given the ball at their own 48 and 44 yard lines. That game still would have been a lopsided loss for the Cardinal, but it would have appeared closer.

Against Clemson, Stanford went for it twice on their own 34, and both times they failed, leading to two TDs for Clemson. Instead of 40-14, a 26-14 defeat against a solid conference opponent on the road looks a lot more palatable.

Of course, the goal is not to make losses more palatable, but to actually win these games, which is what Stanford is trying to accomplish by going for it so often, knowing that the gap between the programs is a little wider at the moment.

As the football program grows under coach Taylor, it will be interesting to keep an eye on how often they end up going for it on fourth down. For now, we have the stats, and everyone can form their own opinions on whether or not it's working out.