What Pac-12 expansion could look like after their historic collapse

Technically there is a scenario where the Pac-12 can expand

The past week for the Pac-12 is one that likely ended the conference, but until the four schools find a new home and announce it we have to consider the possibility of the Pac-12 looking to move forward as a conference.

It wouldn't likely be considered a power conference anymore, which is why it's unlikely that the remaining four programs stick around but in order to move they need invitations. Outside of Stanford who could very well go the independent route and is viewed as the most attractive of the three, there doesn't seem to be a pool of suitors lined up.

So, for this exercise we will assume that the four are remaining and George Kliavkoff is still trying to rebound after what was a massive failure by he and his predecessor Larry Scott. All of the Pac-12 programs are set to leave for the 2024 season, so one would have to assume they'd need at least 10 programs for 2024. We are also working under the assumption that Apple or some partner will offer a deal for this conference.

Before diving into the teams, let me break down my reasoning for the Pac-12 raiding the American Athletic Conference first. 10 is the magic number, which means they should target programs that have a more feasible means of departing unlike the Mountain West who as we know thanks to the San Diego State debacle will cost $34 million to join by 2024.

The three schools who left the American for the Big 12 each had $18 million exit fees which they will pay in installments, starting in 2025 and ending in 2036. We already know the American is much more likely to work with departing programs, whereas the Mountain West wasn't keen on helping out departing members. All of this to say, the Pac-12 likely needs to get American programs first, then invite Mountain West programs for the 2025 season so they don't have to pay as high of an exit fee. 

This is ideally what Pac-12 expansion could look like, if it were to actually happen. Note, the television market rankings are included due to the fact that it's highly unlikely that not a single media entity would want to televise West coast football despite the deal being streaming based if it's with Apple. 

2024: Raid the American

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Programs that could be added:

1. SMU (TV Market rank: No. 6)
2. Tulane (TV Market rank: No. 50)
3. Rice (TV Market rank: No. 7)
4. USF (TV Market rank: No. 13)
5. Memphis (TV Market rank: No. 52)
6. Tulsa (TV Market rank: No. 62)
7. UTSA (TV Market rank: No. 31)

There are some prominent markets in the American with them having locations in Texas and Florida. The main issue with some of the programs like USF and Tulane is their distance, as the Pac-12 made it clear that they felt the decisions made by departing programs didn't value the student athletes. If they do value markets though it'd be hard to turn down two top-50 markets. For the most part there are some competitive programs, and they could easily get back up to 10 or maybe even 12 if they added another program not mentioned. Academically the trio of Tulane, USF, and Tulsa are all ranked highly, which could be another plus and Memphis has a respected basketball program. 

2025: Welcome Mountain West programs

Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Programs that could be added:

1. San Diego State (TV Market rank: No. 30)
2. Colorado State  (TV Market rank: No. 16)
3. Boise State (TV Market rank: No. 98)
4. UNLV (TV Market rank: No. 40)
5. New Mexico (TV Market rank: No. 49)
6. Fresno State (TV Market rank: No. 53)

Again, this isn't saying that the Pac-12 will add all 13 of these programs but if they did they would have quite the interesting conference. San Diego State gets them back in southern California, Colorado State in Denver, and they could have nine new markets that rank within the top-50. At this point academics should be disregarded slightly if they want to value being a competitive  conference. Boise State has a major brand, and Fresno State is extremely competitive. By 2025 they could be up to 16 teams and at that point who knows how the college football landscape would look. This is far different than where Pac-12 fans thought they'd be, but hey welcome to the modern era of college football.