Where every team in the Pac-12 ranks in ESPN's FPI

The FPI is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance

Kevin Borba | Apr 18, 2023

Where every team in the Pac-12 ranks in ESPN's FPI /

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Stanford Cardinal

With a ton of spring games already happening and college football fans peering ahead to what should be a fantastic college football season in 2023, ESPN released their first FPI ranking for their 2023 season.

If you are not familiar with what the FPI is, they explain it as:

"The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete."

During the season it is updated after every game, and in looking at the first edition of this year's FPI, it is evident that it expects the Pac-12 to be extremely strong. Without giving anything away, the conference has five teams ranked within the top-25, and six within the top-60.

Let's take a look at where every team in the Pac-12 ranks in the FPI, what their chances of winning the conference are, and what their chances to make the playoff or win it all are if applicable.

95. Colorado

Projected Wins: 2.6

Percent chance of Winning 6 Games: 1.7%

Percent Chance to win the Pac-12: 0%

71. Stanford

Projected Wins: 4.2

Percent chance of Winning 6 Games: 17.2%

Percent Chance to win the Pac-12: 0%

64. Arizona State

Arizona State football head coach Kenny Dillingham speaks to the media at the Carson Student Athletic Center in Tempe on Feb. 2, 2023. — Rob Schumacher/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

Projected Wins: 4.8

Percent chance of Winning 6 Games: 30.7%

Percent Chance to win the Pac-12: 0%

62. Washington State

Washington State Cougars quarterback Cameron Ward (1) scrambles with the football under pressure from Wisconsin Badgers linebacker Nick Herbig (19) during the fourth quarter at Camp Randall Stadium. — Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Projected Wins: 5.5

Percent chance of Winning 6 Games: 49.3%

Percent Chance to win the Pac-12: 0.1%

59. Arizona

Arizona Wildcats quarterback Jayden de Laura (7) gestures at the line of scrimmage during the second half against the San Diego State Aztecs at Snapdragon Stadium. — Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Projected Wins: 5.5

Percent chance of Winning 6 Games: 48.4%

Percent Chance to win the Pac-12: 0.2%

51. Cal

California Bears running back Jadyn Ott (6) carries the ball as Notre Dame Fighting Irish linebacker Marist Liufau (8) attempts to tackle in the first quarter at Notre Dame Stadium. — Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

Projected Wins: 5.6

Percent chance of Winning 6 Games: 53%

Percent Chance to win the Pac-12: 0.2%

41. UCLA

UCLA Bruins quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson (1) throws a pass against the Southern California Trojans in the first half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. — Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

Projected Wins: 7.6

Percent chance of Winning 6 Games: 93.9%

Percent Chance to win the Pac-12: 1.4%

24. Oregon State

Oregon State Beavers wide receiver Tre'Shaun Harrison (0) looks on during the Oregon State Spring Football game at Reser Stadium. — Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports

Projected Wins: 8.7

Percent chance of Winning 6 Games: 98.6%

Percent Chance to win the Pac-12: 7.6%

Percent Chance to make CFP: 0.8%

21. Washinton

Projected Wins: 7.8

Percent chance of Winning 6 Games: 93.9%

Percent Chance to win the Pac-12: 6.4%

Percent Chance to make CFP: 0.6%

15. Utah

Utah Utes quarterback Cameron Rising (7) celebrates his touchdown with wide receiver Devaughn Vele (17) during the first quarter against the Arizona State Sun Devils at Rice-Eccles Stadium. — Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports

Projected Wins: 8.7

Percent chance of Winning 6 Games: 98.2%

Percent Chance to win the Pac-12: 17%

Percent Chance to make CFP: 3.9%

13. Oregon

Ducks quarterback Bo Nix (10) rushes for an 80 yard touchdown during the second half against the Stanford Cardinal at Autzen Stadium. The Ducks won the game 45-27. — Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports

Projected Wins: 7.8

Percent chance of Winning 6 Games: 99.4%

Percent Chance to win the Pac-12: 16.9%

Percent Chance to make CFP: 4.9%

7. USC

Projected Wins: 10.3

Percent chance of Winning 6 Games: 99.9%

Percent Chance to win the Pac-12: 50.2%

Percent Chance to make CFP: 24.7%

Published Apr 18, 2023

KEVIN BORBA

Managing Editor and Publisher of CardinalCountry.com, formerly a Pac-12 Network Production Assistant and a contributing writer for USA Today's Longhorns Wire. I am a proud graduate of Quinnipiac University's sports journalism master's program. Follow me on Twitter @Kevin__Borba