Syracuse Basketball Midseason Recap & Predictions

A look at the Orange to date and what's ahead.

We’re a smidge over halfway through the season for your Syracuse Orange men’s basketball team. Before you know it, the sweet orotund voices of Clark Kellogg and Greg Gumbel will unveil the seeds and regions on Selection Sunday, en route to determine who exactly is the finest team in all men’s college basketball.

In order for Judah Mintz & Co. to even be in consideration for an NCAA tournament bid in late March, there’s significant work that needs to be done. There have been positive signs of cohesive basketball, mainly both Benny Williams and Chris Bell finding some modicum of consistency in ACC play, but this squad still hasn’t separated itself from the middle pack. For your reading pleasure, he’s a quick hit midseason recap and something storylines to track if Orange fans want to be dancing on Selection Sunday.

Done deal for Big Duke

• After last night’s road win vs. Pittsburgh, head coach Red Autry announced that Florida State 7’4 transfer Naheem McLeod would be out for the season due to a surgical procedure on his right foot. The towering Pennsylvania native was enigmatic in his minutes, having largely already been replaced by Maliq Brown at the five before his injury. However, we had seen McLeod be impactful in protecting the rim and cleaning the glass with his frame, and with the heart of the ACC schedule still to be played for Syracuse, there are concerns that the Orange may not be big enough inside. Of the top 11 rebounders in the ACC currently, SU still has 9(!) left to play on the schedule, including Norchad Omier on Saturday. If Syracuse wants to get some Quad 1 wins in the conference, the need to play with pace and in transition is crucial to minimize their lack of front court size.

Best of the Rest

• Speaking of Quad 1 wins, Syracuse only had 3 non-conference chances to get a Quad 1 win, and they lost two convincingly in Hawaii. The Oregon win has a chance to become a solidified Q1 victory, with the Ducks having two Quad 1 games themselves coming up, and the Pitt road win was a Q1 win before the Panthers dropped to 80th in the NET rankings. With some inconsistency at the top of the ACC (the Miami game on Saturday looked to be a surefire Q1 opportunity going into the season), SU only has 4 Q1 opportunities left, three next month: at Wake Forest on February 2nd, home vs. UNC on the 13th, at NC State on the 20th, with an away game at Clemson on March 5th. The Orange needs to win one of those four games, and potentially get some good luck from Oregon and Pitt to help bolster their resume.

Winging It

• We knew coming into the season that finding consistent outside shooting for the Orange would be a challenge and said challenge has persisted. SU sits at 12th in the ACC in three-point percentage, shooting just over 32%, and a decent amount of that can be laid at the feet of Justin Taylor. Having started all 17 games so far, he’s taking a sizable step back in his three-point percentage from last year, going from over 39% to 33%, and he’d only hit one three in ACC play before hitting two vs. Pitt. He’s been admirable in filling the hybrid wing/forward position that was presumed to be Benny Williams’ in the offseason, but Taylor no longer provides the spacing on the floor needed for Judah and JJ to get downhill. If Taylor isn’t going to be a deadeye from outside, Coach Autry needs to make the decision now to make Quadir Copeland the fifth starter in favor of Taylor. We know about his ACC Player of the Week performance against Pitt at home, but overall he’s been the more consistently impactful player than Taylor. He is a shot in the arm any time he’s in the game, and if the Orange is going to make a late-season tournament push with some upsets, this lineup needs his energy and effort at the start of the game, not after the first media timeout. He’s averaging 8.5 points, 5.3 rebounds, and almost 3 assists in 21 minutes a game, and he’s shot the ball much better than Taylor in ACC play, going 5-11 from deep. I don’t think it can be much clearer than it already has been that Quadir Copeland is one of the five best players on this team, and the starting lineup and his minutes needs to start reflecting it.

Record Prediction

• 21-10 (12-8 in ACC) with 3 (shaky) Q1 wins
• Obviously, there is a lot of projection and time for wins to get better or worse, but that’s not an NCAA tournament resume without serious work in the ACC tournament or some upset wins (not that many Q1 opportunities left in regular, Miami has seven left)

Date	Opponent	Home/Away	NET	Quad	Prediction
1/20/24	Miami	Home	62	Q2	Loss
1/23/24	Florida State	Home	106	Q3	Win
1/27/24	NC State	Home	72	Q2	Win
1/30/24	Boston College	Away	85	Q2	Win
2/3/24	Wake Forest	Away	53	Q1	Loss
2/7/24	Louisville	Home	233	Q4	Win
2/10/24	Clemson	Home	29	Q1	Loss
2/13/24	North Carolina	Home	9	Q1	Loss
2/17/24	Georgia Tech	Away	136	Q3	Win
2/20/24	NC State	Away	72	Q1	Win
2/24/24	Notre Dame	Home	156	Q3	Win
2/27/24	Virginia Tech	Home	47	Q2	Win
3/2/24	Louisville	Away	233	Q3	Win
3/5/24	Clemson	Away	29	Q1	Loss

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