Is There Math That Can Get The Aggie Women To March Madness?

As Texas A&M deals with a protracted slump, history says there's still a chance to get to the NCAA Tournament, if the Aggies act now

The NCAA Tournament bubble is not where the Texas A&M Aggie women want to be. But exactly how much margin for error do the Aggies really have?

Entering Sunday’s game with Mississippi State (12-7, 3-4 in SEC), the Aggies (11-8, 1-6) are trying to shake what has become an unshakable slump, as they’ve lost seven of their last nine games. Because of that, the once-Top 25 Aggies are now one of the ‘First Four Out’ teams in ESPN’s Bracketology.

Clawing back out of this hole and getting to March Madness in coach Gary Blair’s final season will be tough. But how tough will it be, given that bracketologists believe that eight SEC teams will make the field?

History could be a guide — just not last season’s COVID-19 shortened campaign.

The Aggies won 23 games en route to the SEC regular-season crown and entered the NCAA Tournament. But, in the three seasons prior with an NCAA Tournament — 2017, 2018, and 2019 — one SEC team won at least 29 games.

So what happened in the three seasons prior to the cancellation of the 2020 NCAA Tournament due to COVID-19? The SEC sent eight teams to the 2017 Tournament and sent seven each in 2018 and 2019. Three teams made the field with fewer than 20 wins — Tennessee with 19 in both 2017 and 2019, LSU with 19 in 2018 and Auburn with 17 in 2017.

Those aren’t set-in-stone rules, of course. The Aggies play in one of the toughest conferences in the country and will benefit from that schedule along with its NCAA NET rating, which as of Thursday was No. 44. That NET rating comes in the wake of its current slump.

But it also exposes the uphill climb Texas A&M faces. To reach Auburn’s 17 wins from 2017 the Aggies need to win six games. They have nine remaining and four of their last five games are against ranked teams — LSU, Ole Miss, South Carolina, and Georgia.

Which is why it’s incumbent on the Aggies to try and squeeze whatever they can out of this next four-game stretch, all of which include unranked opponents in Mississippi State, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Vanderbilt.

The Aggies have had a week to put their 78-69 loss to Missouri in the rearview. In that game, Kayla Wells scored 14 points, Sydnee Roby scored 13 points, Destiny Pitts scored 13 points and Qadashah Hoppie added 11 points. The Aggies have likely put an emphasis on 3-point defense after giving up 16 against the Tigers.

Mississippi State was on a three-game losing streak before it beat Missouri, 77-62, on Thursday. Caterrion Thompson and Anastasia Hayes both had huge games for the Bulldogs. Thompson had 27 points, including seven 3-pointers, while Hayes added 24 points, five rebounds and five assists.

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You can find Matthew Postins on Twitter @PostinsPostcard.