What Does ESPN's FPI Metric Predict For Texas A&M Football In 2023?

The Aggies will still have a chance to be a key factor in the SEC according to the FPI metrics.

The SEC is a juggernaut of talent across the country's southern heartland. For years, the SEC West reigned supreme as the division to beat, but with the emergence of programs like Kentucky, South Carolina, and Tennessee in recent years, the conference now dominates the rankings each fall. 

So what does this mean for the Texas A&M Aggies entering 2023? According to ESPN's FPI metric rankings, the Aggies have a 2.3 percent chance of winning the SEC West, and a 0.4 percent shot of claiming the conference title in Atlanta come December. 

The Aggies are listed as the No. 18 team in the nation per the metrics, tied with Florida in the initial rankings. A&M is also the sixth-highest-rated SEC team, trailing Alabama (No. 2), Georiga (No. 3), LSU (No. 4), Tennessee (No. 12) and Ole Miss (No. 16). 

The FPI defines itself as "a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season." The results it projects are based on 20,000 simulations of the 2023 college football season before the start of new year. 

Following the simulations, A&M is projected to win 7.6 games next fall. The Aggies also have a 0.4 percent chance of making the College Football Playoff and a 0.1 percent shot of making the national title game in Houston at NRG Stadium. 

Last season, A&M failed to meet expectations after finishing with one of the more historic recruiting classes in FBS history. Injuries, insufficient quarterback play and a youthful feel ultimately cost the Aggies several matchups en route to a 5-7 season. 

The Aggies look to be headed in the right direction under sixth-year coach Jimbo Fisher. A&M fired longtime offensive coordinator Darrell Dickey and replaced him with former Louisville and Arkansas head coach Bobby Petrino. 

Fisher, who currently is 39-21 during his tenure in College Station, also is expected to relinquish the play-calling for the first time in his head coaching career. Last season, A&M finished 93rd in total offense and 101st in scoring behind Fisher's play concepts. 

While the transfer portal decimated A&M following its worst year since 2008, the Aggies managed to retain several key veterans, including receiver Ainias Smith, tight end Max Wright, offensive lineman Layden Robinson, defensive lineman McKinley Jackson, linebacker Edgerrin Cooper and safety Demani Richardson. 

The Aggies also feel confident in their quarterback room following stellar springs from both Conner Weigman and Max Johnson. Johnson, a redshirt junior who started three games last season, made up ground in practice under Petrino's play-calling, but Weigman might have more long-term upside following his success late last season. 

In eight games, Johnson and Weigman combined for 1,413 yards and 11 touchdowns against zero interceptions. Both passers threw at least one touchdown and an interception in Saturday's Maroon and White game while working with both offenses. 

The Aggies open the season at Kyle Field on Sept. 2 against New Mexico.

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