College Baseball: 2024 NCAA Tournament Regionals Preview, Predictions

The college baseball postseason kicks off this weekend with 64 teams scrambling to punch one of eight elusive tickets to the College World Series.

May 24, 2024; Charlotte, NC, USA; Wake Forest pitcher Chase Burns (29) celebrates after a strikeout in th second inning against the North Carolina Tar Heels during the ACC Baseball Tournament at Truist Field. Mandatory Credit: Scott Kinser-USA TODAY Sports / Scott Kinser-USA TODAY Sports

Last weekend, Memorial Day unofficially rang in the start to summer here in the states and this weekend kicks off the summer sporting season. The NCAA Baseball Tournament begins with the Regional stage, where 64 teams selected to the postseason vie for eight precious tickets to the College World Series. Fire up ESPN+ and throw some brats on the grill – let's preview and pick a winner for all 16 Regionals this weekend.

For a full TV schedule and bracket, visit the NCAA's hub for the tournament.

Hosts are listed below. Their national seeding is listed in parentheses.

Knoxville Regional: Tennessee (1)

Picking against the top overall seed is a pretty foolish way to start these predictions, so I won't. But, as history tells us, someone other than Tennessee will raise the championship trophy. Since moving to a Regionals-Super Regionals-CWS format in 1999, Miami (FL) is the only top overall seed to win the title (in that inagural 1999 season).

The Vols have an explosive offense (134 weighted runs created-plus, wRC+) and solid all-around pitching (5.03 field-independent pitching, FIP). A 35-3 record at home doesn't hurt, either.

• The pick: Tennessee
• Runner up: Southern Miss

Lexington Regional: Kentucky (2)

Kentucky was the darling of the RPI last year but failed to make it to Omaha, falling to eventual-champion LSU in the Super Regionals. This year, the Wildcats returned with a vengeance and an improved offense. They also don't play a super difficult Regional, hosting Indiana State, Illinois, and Western Michigan.

I'm not convinced Kentucky has what it takes to win it all – or potentially even to make Omaha – but the Wildcats have more than enough firepower to come away from their own regional unscathed.

• The pick: Kentucky
• Runner up: Indiana State

Bryan-College Station Regional: Texas A&M (3)

If you're looking for flaming hot takes and regional upsets, these first few picks might not be for you. There's four teams I legitimately think can win this year's CWS and Texas A&M is one of those teams. The Aggies are by far the most complete team in the pod, although a little extra spice was thrown into the pot by including rival Texas in the region.

For Friday's game against Grambling, the tournament's worst team statistically, A&M might post 20 runs.

• The pick: Texas A&M
• Runner up: Texas

Chapel Hill Regional: North Carolina (4)

Defending-champion LSU is the chic pick as the No. 2 seed in the Chapel Hill region. Why wouldn't they be? The Tigers are starting to round into form, led by electric power hitter Tommy White. LSU won seven consecutive games before falling to Tennessee in the SEC Championship. They also took two of three from Texas A&M late in the year.

But I'll already be a slave to two other trendy picks later on. North Carolina is a very good baseball team not getting half the respect they deserve. They finished an astounding 32-2 at home this season.

• The pick: North Carolina
• Runner up: LSU

Fayetteville Regional: Arkansas (5)

In the postseason, pitching trumps all. And nobody in the country has the collection of arms that Arkansas does, led by superstar Hagen Smith. This year, Smith averages an impossible 17.54 strikeouts per nine innings. Teams that win the College World Series often have that one ace, like LSU had in Paul Skenes last year. Arkansas has Smith.

Spoiler alter: The Razorbacks are another one of the four teams I genuinely believe can win the CWS. I think they go a perfect 3-0 here.

• The pick: Arkansas
• Runner up: Louisiana Tech

Clemson Regional: Clemson (6)

Alright, let's have some fun. I think this region is filled with flawed teams, the Tigers included. Vanderbilt is the trendy pick based on brand recognition alone, but the Commodores lack the star pitching they usually have. How about a fun team with a history of postseason success and a chip on their shoulder?

Coastal Carolina has a solid selection of starting and relief pitching led by Riley Eikhoff (5-1, 5.30 ERA). While the college baseball world hand-wrings over Vandy and Clemson, I'm taking Coastal Carolina as the sub-two seed to get it done.

• The pick: Coastal Carolina
• Runner up: Clemson

Athens Regional: Georgia (7)

Everyone is talking about Charlie Condon. The future No. 1 MLB Draft Pick broke the BBCOR home run record this season with 35 and counting. But what not enough people are talking about is Georgia's ability to win the College World Series. They have a beneficial road to Omaha – likely a beneficial bracket in Omaha – and that starts here with a region that certainly could be more difficult.

I'm excited to see another installment of Georgia-Georgia Tech here. The Bulldogs took both played games earlier this year, showing off strong hitting and shutdown pitching.

• The pick: Georgia
• Runner up: Georgia Tech

Tallahassee Regional: Florida State (8)

Like Georgia, Florida State isn't being recognized enough as a very strong team. Despite getting pasted in the ACC Championship by Duke, FSU is a team really nobody wants to see in the postseason. The Noles complement a dangerous offense (ninth in wRC+) with one of the more sound defenses in run prevention (.980 fielding percent).

They drew a heck of a region, competing with Alabama, UCF, and even Stetson, making it one of the most difficult in the tournament. But a 27-4 home record certainly gives the 'Noles some confidence.

• The pick: Florida State
• Runner up: UCF

Norman Regional: Oklahoma (9)

Outside of Norman and Oklahoma and Big 12 circles (and maybe not even those), nobody believes Oklahoma is the best team in this region. They aren't the highest ranked in RPI, KPI, or DSR; sportsbooks line them as the underdog; and the entire college baseball world is picking against them. So, wouldn't it be a great story to see them defy the odds?

Sure. But I'm not picking it to happen. Duke is a top-10 team by almost every measurement. It was dirty work to award the Sooners a region then plant top-10 Duke right under them.

• The pick: Duke
• Runner up: UConn

Raleigh Regional: NC State (10)

South Carolina has a better offense, better pitching, and played an equally-difficult schedule as NC State. A 25-7 record at home for the Wolfpack is nothing to be ashamed of, but when some of those losses came to... checks notes... Campbell, UNC Greensboro, and VCU, that's a problem. Only three teams in the entire tournament have a worse FIP than NC State (6.79!).

James Madison appears to be a team of destiny in just about every sport, being the only non-power conference team to make the postseason in football, basketball, and baseball.

• The pick: South Carolina
• Runner up: James Madison

Stillwater Regional: Oklahoma State (11)

Oklahoma State drew one of the toughest regions in the tournament. Social media discourse on Monday focused on Florida, a team barely over .500, as flaw and bias in the Selection Committee's process. After this regional, we'll have our answer. Big Ten champion Nebraska – a team that flirted with the top 25 all season – also joins the party.

I'm going to be up front here: There's plenty of strong arguments against Florida in the tournament. But I also believe they're capable of beating these teams and winning the regional. I believe it enough to put my money where my mouth is.

• The pick: Florida
• Runner up: Oklahoma State

Charlottesville Regional: Virginia (12)

In a surprising twist, Virginia brings the tournament's best offense to the table (137 wRC+) and falters in pitching (5.71 FIP, below average). But towards the end of the season, Mississippi State hit its stride, picking up series wins over Vanderbilt and Alabama. They even stole an SEC Tournament game from Texas A&M.

The last time an unranked school from Mississippi really hit its groove late in the season, Ole Miss won the whole thing. Just something to keep an eye on.

• The pick: Mississippi State
• Runner up: Virginia

Tucson Regional: Arizona (13)

Arizona is deserving of hosting a regional because they won a league very capable in the baseball space. It's a fitting sendoff to the Pac-12, as Arizona's late-night walked off over USC to win the final conference title. That said, Arizona is not the best team in their own regional.

Heck, they may not even be the second best.

This group is downright brutal, with No. 4 seed Grand Canyon being head and shoulders above the other four seeds. This will be a fun group to watch, but the Wildcats average a rank of just 32 between the RPI, KPI, and DSR. Ouch.

• The pick: Dallas Baptist
• Runner up: Grand Canyon

Santa Barbara Regional: UC Santa Barbara (14)

The Gouchos came into the 2024 season with a ton of promise and one of the nation's best and deepest pitching staffs. The result? A top-three FIP (4.62) and its first time hosting a regional since 2016. That 2016 squad would go on to make the College World Series.

As mentioned, in the postseason, pitching trumps all. It can make up for a lot of shortcomings. Luckily for UCSB, they don't have a ton of shortcomings, posting an above-average offense (113) wRC+.

• The pick: UCSB
• Runner up: San Diego

Corvallis Regional: Oregon State (15)

If you like offense, this is the region for you. All four teams have well above average offenses, with Oregon State (131 wRC+) and UC Irvine (125) leading the way. Beavers star Travis Bazzana is a player you think twice about throwing strikes to, having knocked 26 homers in the regular season en route to All-American honors.

Even Nicholls and Tulane have fun offenses to watch. So, how do you discern victors here with high-volatility games? You look for the deepest pitching. That title belongs to Oregon State.

• The pick: Oregon State
• Runner up: UC Irvine

Greenville Regional: East Carolina (16)

When you land the 16th national seed, you get stuck with the best No. 2 seed. It just so happens that this year's choice for that spot is a top-10 team with legitimate championship aspirations in Wake Forest. East Carolina boasts one of the best home field advantages, especially in the postseason. The Pirates are no strangers to that, hosting a regional in six of the last seven tournaments and making the Super Regionals in three of the last four years.

But Wake Forest has the best one-two pitching punch in Chase Burns and Josh Hartle. They also roster a top-three MLB Draft prospect in Nick Kurtz. The firepower here is simply too much.

• The pick: Wake Forest
• Runner up: East Carolina

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