NCAA Baseball Tournament: Final Projections

Before Monday’s Selection Show, D1Baseball has updated its postseason projections. Where do they have TCU and other Big 12 schools?

© Steven Branscombe-USA TODAY Sports

The conference baseball tournaments are behind us. Many didn’t go as expected as teams like Tulane and Charlotte won their conferences’ automatic bids, reducing the number of at-large bids available for those teams on the bubble.

One of those impacted is Kansas State, which despite having the second-best record in the third-best conference and playing in the Big 12 tournament semifinals, looks to be one of the first four teams out as teams are announced Monday morning.

Saturday’s college baseball tournament games brought excitement, surprises, and reinforcement of where some teams will be placed when the NCAA Tournament selections are announced Monday morning.

D1Baseball.com, one of the leading sources of college baseball information, scores, and more, has published daily projections based on the conference tournament results. Their final projections were out late Sunday night, May 29. The NCAA Selection Show will be on Monday at 11 am CT.

Six teams from the Big 12 are projected to make the field. Oklahoma finished with a Big 12 record worse than K-State’s but with a much higher RPI than the Cats. RPI, or ratings percentage index, is a factor the selection committee widely uses and compares a team’s strength of schedule.

D1Baseball still has TCU as the No. 2 seed. After winning the 2023 Phillips 66 Big 12 Baseball Championship, the Frogs improved their Regional placement and are now projected to play in the Stanford Regional. Their first opponent is projected to be a familiar foe – Cal State Fullerton, a team that came to Fort Worth earlier this month. TCU won that series 2-1. Santa Clara is the other team projected for the Stanford Regional.

In addition to TCU and Oklahoma, D1Baseball projects Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech, and West Virginia from the Big 12 to all get bids on Monday. Of those, only Oklahoma State will host a Regional, as the NCAA announced the 16 host sites late Sunday night. Oklahoma State is currently projected as the No. 12 national seed.

Besides Cal State Fullerton, four other 2023 opponents TCU faced are also projected to receive bids – Arkansas, Dallas Baptist, UNC-Wilmington, and Vanderbilt. The Fayetteville Regional is projected to have three of its four teams as former 2023 opponents of TCU – Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Dallas Baptist.

Here are some of the projections from D1Baseball.com as of May 29:

Big 12 Schools Projected in NCAA Tournament

• Oklahoma – Projected No. 3 seed in the Fayetteville Regional.
• Oklahoma State– Projected No. 12 national seed, which would have them hosting a Regional in Stillwater. Their potential Super Regional would be in Nashville against No. 5 Vanderbilt.
• TCU– Projected No. 2 seed in the Stanford Regional.
• Texas – Projected No. 2 seed in the Coral Gables Regional
• Texas Tech – Projected No. 3 seed in the Clemson Regional.
• West Virginia – Projected No. 2 seed in the Charlottesville Regional.

TCU Non-Conference Opponents Projected in NCAA Tournament

• Arkansas – Projected No. 3 national seed, which would have them hosting a Regional in Fayetteville, Arkansas, and potentially a Super Regional versus the winner of the Auburn Regional.
• Cal State Fullerton – Projected No. 3 seed in the Stanford Regional.
• Dallas Baptist – Projected No. 2 seed in the Fayetteville Regional.
• UNC-Wilmington – Projected No. 3 seed in the Conway Regional.
• Vanderbilt – Projected No. 5 national seed and host of the Nashville Regional and potentially a Super Regional versus the winner of the Stillwater Regional.

Regional Tournament Hosts: The Top 16

1. Winston-Salem Regional (Wake Forest)
2. Gainesville Regional (Florida)
3. Fayetteville (AR) Regional (Arkansas)
4. Clemson Regional (Clemson)
5. Nashville Regional (Vanderbilt)
6. Baton Rouge Regional (LSU)
7. Stanford Regional (Stanford)
8. Charlottesville Regional (Virginia)
9. Coral Gables Regional (Miami)
10. Conway Regional (Coastal Carolina)
11. Tuscaloosa Regional (Alabama)
12. Stillwater Regional (Oklahoma State)
13. Lexington Regional (Kentucky)
14. Auburn Regional (Auburn)
15. Columbia Regional (South Carolina)
16. Terre Haute Regional (Texas)

College World Series Brackets

Assuming every host team wins their Regional (they won’t) and the bottom eight regional hosts all go on the road to play the Super Regional at the top eight teams, and assuming the top eight national seeds all win the Supers (they won’t), here’s how the brackets would be in Omaha:

Bracket One

• (1) Wake Forest
• (4) Clemson
• (5) Vanderbilt
• (8) Virginia

Bracket Two

• (2) Florida
• (3) Arkansas
• (6) LSU
• (7) Stanford

Look for some storylines from the conference tournaments that could change these projections. We will know at 11 am CT what the NCAA postseason will look like.

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