Predicting The NCAA Super Regionals: Who Punches Their Ticket To The College World Series?

The NCAA Baseball Super Regionals kick off this weekend. When the dust settles, we'll have eight teams with tickets punched to the College World Series.

Georgia's Charlie Condon (24) celebrates with his teammate after hitting a home run during a NCAA Athens Regional baseball game against Army in Athens, Ga., on Friday, May 31, 2024. / Joshua L. Jones / USA TODAY NETWORK

The most exciting weekend in college baseball kicks off Friday. There's just 16 teams remaining, each of which will be fighting tooth and nail to win two games and punch their ticket to the College World Series. Clear your schedule – the Super Regionals are appointment television.

Predicting The NCAA Super Regionals

Knoxville: (1) Tennessee Vs. Evansville

A No. 1 overall seed hasn't won a College World Series since 1999, and only two others made the finals. As the top seed in 2022, Tennessee dropped its Super Regional to Notre Dame. Evansville, while a fun story last weekend, doesn't have the chops to take down the Vols this weekend. If they win a game, it'd be a historic upset.

• The pick: Tennessee 2-0

Lexington: (2) Kentucky vs. (15) Oregon State

Last year, Kentucky looked to be a team of destiny. That is, until they ran into the eventual National Champions in LSU in the Super Regionals. This year, they pull a dangerous Oregon State team that, not only has one of the most dangerous hitters in Travis Bazzana, but also the fourth-best rotation among the remaining teams.

The Wildcats made their Regional look effortless, using just three bullpen arms in the final two closeout games. Starters Trey Pooser and Mason Moore combined for 13 innings and one total earned run against Illinois and Indiana. If you're a fan of quality pitching, this is the series for you.

With both teams featuring a stacked pitching rotation, it comes down to the bats. I'm taking the upset with Oregon State because I believe they have the more dangerous batting order.

• The pick: Oregon State 2-1

Bryan-College Station: (3) Texas A&M vs. Oregon

Aside from an 11-inning fight with arch-rival Texas, the Aggies ran through their region like tissue paper. And even in that 11-inning win, only two pitchers were needed – closer Evan Aschenbeck flexed his muscles and went 4.2 innings.

Oregon's pitching staff was stellar in Santa Barbara, not allowing anyone to break five runs and stifling its final two opponents to one shared run. If you like runs, this might not be your Super Regional.

Hitting has been the Ducks' shortcoming this year. Of the remaining teams, only three have a worse wOBA. Texas A&M has the elite pitching staff, capable of holding Oregon to peanuts, as well as plenty of power hitting on the other side.

Also, a 1:00 p.m. CT first pitch comes on a day forecast to be 96º. Game 2 starts at 5:30 p.m. CT, also forecast for 96º. Welcome to June in CSTAT, Ducks.

• The pick: Texas A&M 2-0

Chapel Hill: (4) North Carolina vs. West Virginia

North Carolina secured its spot in the Super Regionals with an extra-inning victory over LSU in a winner-take-all Game 7 last weekend. Does that kind of fight result in added momentum for the Tar Heels? Or does it take its toll? We'll soon find out.

There's a mismatch here: UNC is third in FIP among remaining teams while West Virginia is third-worst in wOBA. The Mountaineers took advantage of a less-than-stellar pitching staff in Grand Canyon, hanging 10 runs on them in the closeout game. Star J.J. Wetherholt leads WVU in batting (.345) since returning from injury, but one star isn't enough against North Carolina.

UNC has a rich baseball history. The Tar Heels are on a mission to return to Omaha for the first time since 2018 and just the second in the last 10 years. A 35-3 home record doesn't hurt.

• The pick: North Carolina 2-1

Charlottesville: (12) Virginia vs. Kansas State

For the past couple years, a Big 12 team really hit its stride in the postseason, ultimately making the College World Series finals or semifinals. Last year, it was TCU; the year before, it was Oklahoma. This year, could it be Kansas State?

The Wildcats exploded for 19 runs in a weather-delayed opening game, then followed it up with 14 combined runs in two closeout games. Finally, it appears K-State is living up to its preseason hype.

But good as the hitting is currently, Virginia rosters perhaps the most lethal batting order top to bottom in the field. UVA's pitching stepped up last round, stifling quality opponents to just eight combined runs in three games. Another round like that sends the Hoos to Omaha.

Either way, this should be one of the more exciting series to watch.

• The pick: Virginia 2-1

Clemson: (6) Clemson vs. Florida

Well, here we are. After a few days of gripes and uproar about Florida being selected in the Field of 64, the Gators advance and are one of 16 teams left. Justifying selection based on tournament performance is flawed – especially since Florida beat two extremely flawed teams in Oklahoma State and Nebraksa to get here – but its hard to make an argument for TCU or Cincinnati now.

It took two walk-offs to get Clemson to a closeout game – one they did indeed close out emphatically. The Tigers are a dangerous team through and through, both on offense and defense. They're a complete team capable of avalanching runs but also getting just what they need in crunch time.

But it's hard to pick against a team really hitting its stride in the postseason. Especially one that was average throughout the regular season.

• The pick: Florida 2-1

Athens: (7) Georgia vs. (10) NC State

This is more than just a Charlie Condon blurb, although he's the most dangerous hitter in college baseball. The entirety of Georgia is starting to click. UGA fans are starved for postseason success. After all, the Bulldogs haven't made the College World Series since being stunned by Fresno State in 2008.

NC State is a sound baseball team, but I'm not convinced they have the hitting to contend with Georgia. The Wolfpack entered the tournament with the worst FIP among one- or two-seeds and they have the worst FIP among teams standing.

That's a bad counter for a team as lethal at the plate as Georgia.

• The pick: Georgia 2-0

Tallahassee: (8) Florida State vs. UConn

Both of these teams quietly dominated their respective region. UConn was an especial surprise, being priced longer than 7-1 in odds to win the Norman Regional. Before last weekend, all the talk surrounded Duke vs. Oklahoma. And then the Huskies took the pod.

Remarkably, UConn surrendered 22 hits in its three wins in Norman. They surrendered one run in each game. The Huskies are fourth in fielding percent (among remaining teams), but might be playing the best defense today.

Florida State brings much more power to the plate than either Oklahoma or Duke. Outfielder James Tibbs has 25 home runs to his name and four other 'Noles have at least 10. Not allowing power at the plate is critical for UConn's pitching staff that allowed a lot of bat-to-balls last round.

But UConn is rolling right now. In the postseason, it's all about momentum.

• The pick: UConn 2-1

College World Series Omaha 8 Predictions

Bracket 1

• (1) Tennessee
• UConn
• (12) Virginia
• (4) North Carolina

Bracket 2

• (15) Oregon State
• (7) Georgia
• Florida
• (3) Texas A&M

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