Big 12 College Football Team Preview 2024: Houston Cougars

It's time for change in Houston. How will the Cougars fare in Year 1 under new head coach Willie Fritz?

Nov 18, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Cougars quarterback Donovan Smith (1) hands off the ball to running back Parker Jenkins (23) during the first quarter against the Oklahoma State Cowboys at TDECU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-USA TODAY Sports / Maria Lysaker-USA TODAY Sports

It's the start of a new chapter for the Houston Cougars. Following a 4-8 debut season in the Big 12, Houston parted ways with head coach Dana Holgorsen, hiring Tulane coach Willie Fritz as his replacement. Fritz brings an impressive resume to the Space City: a 23-5 record the last two seasons, an ACC championship, and a Cotton Bowl win over USC.

Expectations are high for UH football. Since 2005, Houston suffered just four full losing seasons, A 15-10 record over two seasons was seen as a fireable offense, as UH axed coach Major Applewhite for just that. So after a 12-13 run, it was time to make a change.

While Fritz is a proven program builder – he turned Tulane from a 2-10 team into a 12-2 Cotton Bowl champ quite literally overnight – but Houston has an uphill battle to fight in the Big 12. How do they fare in Year 1 under Fritz and Year 2 in the Big 12?

Houston Cougars Football History

Jan 2 , 2012; Dallas, TX, USA; Houston Cougars quarterback Case Keenum (7) scrambles against the Penn State Nittany Lions during the game at the 2012 Ticket City Bowl at the Cotton Bowl Stadium. Houston beat Penn State 30-14. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports / Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

In one of the all-time trivia answers, Houston boasts college football's all-time leading passer: Case Keenum. In five seasons (2007-2011), he threw for nearly 20,000 yards – an astounding mark for any era. Keenum also holds the fourth- and sixth-most passing yards in a given season. Venture to single-game passing records and Houston has two in the top 15, neither of which being Keenum. Those accolades belong to David Klinger (716 yards, 1990) and his brother, Jimmy, (613, 1992).

Between 1949-1975, Houston played largely as an independent. In that time, UH had a brief stint in the Missouri Valley Conference (1951-59). In 1976, Houston gave up independence for good, joining the Southwest Conference. The Cougars played in the SWC until it disbanded in 1995; instead of following TCU to the Mountain West or Texas A&M to the Big 12, UH joined Conference USA.

That membership flipped to the American in 2013, where the Cougars played until joining the Big 12 last season.

Houston brings 11 conference championships to the table and boasts the 1989 Heisman Trophy winner, QB Andre Ware.

2023: Time For Change

Nov 18, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Cougars head coach Dana Holgorsen looks on during the first quarter against the Oklahoma State Cowboys at TDECU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-USA TODAY Sports / Maria Lysaker-USA TODAY Sports

In 2021, Houston capped a 12-2 season with a victory over Auburn in the Birmingham Bowl. The only teams to upend the Cougars were Texas Tech (Week 1) and CFP-bound Cincinnati (AAC Championship). An elite combination of offense and defense propelled Houston to a No. 17 finish in the AP Poll. Holgerson, just three seasons into his tenure with UH, set a high bar.

But he followed that 12-2 season up with an 8-5 one and then 4-8. Many felt he was spinning his wheels in Houston without much marked improvement. He also dealt with a steep increase in competition between the American and Big 12.

QB Donovan Smith was a feature of the offense, throwing for over 2,800 yards and 22 touchdowns while rushing in six more (and even catching another!). RB Parker Jenkins led the team with just 464 rushing yards.

Houston beat two Power Conference opponents by a combined three points. The first win came over West Virginia, which took a miraculous Hail Mary and wild final sequence to win. The Cougars upended Baylor in overtime by a point. The other two wins came over Sam Houston State, who scored its first touchdown of the season that game (Week 3), and UTSA in Week 1 without their star QB.

Houston Cougars Offense Preview

Oct 21, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Cougars quarterback Donovan Smith (1) looks for an open receiver during the game against the Texas Longhorns at TDECU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports / Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Smith and Jenkins return for 2024. Despite questions and some objections, Smith has garnered some NFL interest, with some outlets even projecting him as a first-round pick (you can decide the validity of that). Alongside these two is receiver Joseph Manjack IV (577 yards, six touchdowns) and Stephon Johnson Jr. (277, 3 TDs).

Ousted Mississippi State offensive coordinator Kevin Barbay was hired to call Fritz' offense. Barbay previously led the Appalachian State and Central Michigan offenses. He hasn't called plays at a school for more than a year since becoming an FBS OC (2021, '22, '23, '24) and led his offenses to an average 65th-ranked finish in points per drive (PPD – albeit, a 110 finish in an extremely difficult circumstance at Mississippi State).

Manjack projects to be the top target in the pass game as Matthew Golden transfers to Texas and leading WR Samuel Brown transfers to Miami (FL). Transfers TE Maliq Carr (Michigan State) and WR Mekhi Mews (Georgia) poise to be Day 1 impact players.

Two offensive linemen return, including staring left tackle David Ndukwe, a converted defensive lineman from Western Kentucky. The three inbound starters combined for two starts last year, although guard Peyton Dunn started 21 games in three seasons with ULM.

Houston Cougars Defense Preview

Nov 18, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Cougars linebacker Jamal Morris (25) tackles Oklahoma State Cowboys running back Ollie Gordon II (0) during the second quarter at TDECU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-USA TODAY Sports / Maria Lysaker-USA TODAY Sports

Though the offense sputtered out last year, it was the defense that really struggled. Houston finished 118th in PPD allowed and 120th in opposing success rate. UH allowed 30+ points in six of eight losses and 40+ in four of them. It was lucky to escape with a 41-39 win over West Virginia, too.

Fritz brings over DC Shiel Wood, who led Tulane to a top-40 finish last season; most of the Green Wave's position coaches also follow Fritz to Houston. While Wood is an excellent DC (he led Troy to the 10th-best defense in PPD in 2022), coaching only goes so far if you don't have the players to execute the game plan.

Just two starters return on defense. However, after an abysmal finish last year, new blood is needed. Of the 27 inbound transfers this year, 17 play defense. Tulane standouts LB Corey Platt, DE Keith Cooper, and SAF Kentrell Webb transfer in from Tulane to headline the class. Six starters on defense could be transfers and another, CB Latrell McCutchin, redshirted last year after transferring from Oklahoma.

Given Fritz' defensive background, expect Houston to be a defense-focused squad in 2024. While it may not jump from a bottom-20 unit to a top-20 unit, UH's defense could be one of the most improved units, not just in the conference but, in the entire country.

Best Case Scenario For Houston

Houston's wide receiver Joseph Manjack IV (0) runs for a touchdown against Texas Tech in a Big 12 football game, Saturday, Sept, 30, 2023, at Jones AT&T Stadium. / Annie Rice/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK

Fritz is an exceptional coach and experienced program builder. He started 29-33 at Tulane with three straight bowl appearances – following a stretch of two winning seasons in 16 years – before a hurricane-interrupted season crashed the Green Wave to 2-10. That's when Fritz really kicked things into gear, pulling off one of the most impressive turnarounds ever.

Bringing a large part of his defensive staff over, Houston's overhaul could produce immediate results. Even a 6-6 or 7-5 start in Year 1 would be a massive improvement over the largely-non competitive 4-8 record of last year (and most of those four wins being lucky). At the very least, Houston fans won't have to endure many more 41-0 blowouts.

But what's the real ceiling for this team? Having a potential NFL QB (whether or not you buy one source calling him a first-rounder) goes a long way in college football. Smith, at his best, patches over lots of potential issues.

However, best case scenario, Houston looks to be favored in five games. Best case.

This team would need to seriously exceed expectations to pull off an 8-4 or better season. Let's call the ceiling 7-5.

Worst Case Scenario For Houston

Nov 11, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Cougars running back Parker Jenkins (23) is tackled by Cincinnati Bearcats defensive end Justin Wodtly (95) in the first half at TDECU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports / Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

There's one BIG issue I haven't mentioned yet. Donovan Smith dealt with a torn labrum this offseason, received surgery for it, and missed all of spring practice. Reports say he returned to full speed to start July, but that injury looms large over this team. Should Smith be less than 100% at all this seaoson, UH loses a huge edge.

They did land Louisiana QB Zeon Chriss in the transfer portal, who is a solid insurance policy. But if Smith really does boast NFL interest, losing him would be critical.

The other half of the equation here is the schedule. Houston plays four of the top five projected finishers in the Big 12, per sportsbook odds (Utah, Kansas State, Arizona, Kansas), all consecutively. The non-conference is far from a cakewalk, either – the Cougars host UNLV and rival Rice and visit Oklahoma. While 2-1 would be the expectation here, Rice upended Houston, 45-43 in 2OT last year and then upgraded at QB this offseason. UNLV boasts one of the top receivers in the entire country (Ricky White) and landed two interesting FCS QBs, plus they get Houston in Week 1 of the turnover.

0-3 to start the year is incredibly unlikely, but not impossible. 1-2 is quite possible, if not unlikely.

Then to dive into that conference schedule, which includes tough Iowa State sandwiched between road trips at Cincinnati and TCU (on a day short of rest)... Houston could be poised for another 4-8 season. But that's the floor – that's if things go really wrong. Smith isn't healthy, positive bounces from last year go against them.

The most likely record for Houston this year is likely 5-7.

Houston Cougars 2024 Schedule

Date	Opponent
Aug. 31	UNLV
Sept. 7	at Oklahoma
Sept. 14	Rice
Sept. 21	at Cincinnati
Sept. 28	Iowa State
Oct. 4 (Friday)	at TCU
Oct. 12	BYE
Oct. 19	at Kansas
Oct. 26	Utah
Nov. 2	Kansas State
Nov. 9	BYE
Nov. 15 (Friday)	at Arizona
Nov. 23	Baylor
Nov. 30	at BYU

---

Want to join the discussion? Click here to become a member of the Killer Frogs message board community today!

Follow KillerFrogs on Twitter to stay up to date on all the latest TCU news! Follow KillerFrogs on Facebook and Instagram as well. Download the KillerFrogs app on Google Play or in the Apple App Store.