Big 12 College Football Team Preview 2024: UCF Knights

After landing a haul in the transfer portal, Gus Malzahn and the UCF Knights have sky-high expectations in 2024. Can they match those expectations?

Oct 28, 2023; Orlando, Florida, USA; UCF Knights wide receiver Kobe Hudson (2) catches a pass in front of West Virginia Mountaineers safety Anthony Wilson (12) and scores during the first quarter at FBC Mortgage Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mike Watters-USA TODAY Sports / Mike Watters-USA TODAY Sports

Transitioning to the Big 12 brought seriously high highs and seriously low lows that resulted in a 6-7 campaign. In the eyes of coach Gus Malzahn, that wasn't good enough. So, UCF hit the transfer portal hard. The Knights bring in one of the more notable hauls in the Big 12 and hope to reload and compete in their new league. But will the new pieces be enough to turn UCF into a full-fledged contender?

After all, it's not the first time UCF took a step up in competition and struggled to start. But each time they did, the Knights course-corrected and ended up dominating that league. Could the same be brewing in the Big 12? If so, is 2024 the first step in that direction?

UCF Knights Football History

Nov 1, 2018; Orlando, FL, USA; UCF Knights quarterback McKenzie Milton (10) throws a touchdown pass during the first quarter against the Temple Owls at Spectrum Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports / Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

UCF first joined the FBS ranks in 1996 after competing in every other collegiate football league. It started as a Division-III program in 1979 and quickly moved up to Division II in 1982. Despite going 0-10 in that first year, UCF moved up to be the No. 1 team in D-II, going 24-6 between 1986 and 1990. That stretch included an infamous moment in college football – the "noise penalty."

The Knights moved up to Division I-AA (later named FCS) in 1990. They went 10-4 in the first year there, then moved up to Division I-A (later named FBS) for the 1996 season. It took just three seasons for UCF to start its winning ways, going 9-2 in 1998. It joined the MAC in 2002, going 0-11 in Year 3 before transitioning to Conference USA. Under George O'Leary, UCF went 60-44 (.577) then moved to the American.

And that's when things really took off. UCF went 12-1 in Year 1, but petered under O'Leary. He was replaced with a familiar name, Scott Frost, who led the Knights to a 25-1 record in 2017 and 2018, including the famous 13-0 2017 season, in which UCF still claims a national championship. UCF moved to the Big 12 in 2023 after finishing its stint in the AAC at 86-46 (.652).

2023: A Chaotic Step To The Big 12

Sep 30, 2023; Orlando, Florida, USA; UCF Knights quarterback Timmy McClain (9) throws a pass in front of Baylor Bears safety Devyn Bobby (28) during the second half at FBC Mortgage Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mike Watters-USA TODAY Sports / Mike Watters-USA TODAY Sports

As expected, UCF took its lumps Year 1 in the Big 12. Its 6-7 record both defines its season and subsequently leaves all the fun details out. UCF lost its first five conference games – including an all-time collapse against Baylor, allowing 26 fourth-quarter points and losing 36-35 – before nothing its first league win over newly-joined Cincinnati.

And then the Knights blew out 7-2 Oklahoma State 45-3. In its final four regular season games, UCF won three and its only loss to Texas Tech came by one single point. The Knights played in five games decided by a field goal or less, going 2-3 in such games.

Starting QB John Rhys-Plumlee spent some of the year injured, giving way to Timmy McClain (who had one of the season's best highlights against Baylor). RB R.J. Harvey rushed for over 1,400 yards and 16 touchdowns while WR Kobe Hudson earned all-conference honors with 900 yards and eight touchdowns. The defense, though, was dreadful, finishing 90th in points per drive (PPD) allowed but, at times, was one of the worst in the country.

UCF Knights Offense Preview

UCF's running back RJ Harvey (7) scores a touchdown against Texas Tech, Saturday, Nov. 18, 2023, at Jones AT&T Stadium. / Annie Rice/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK

Harvey and Hudson are back, complemented by a host of new and talented faces. UCF's most notable transfer is Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson, a veteran who threw for nearly 8,000 yards and accounted for 88 total touchdowns in four seasons in Fayetteville. Jefferson, an imposing figure at 6-foot-3, 250 pounds, is a dynamic playmaker who fits the Malzahn offense nicely.

Harvey now leads a loaded backfield. Backup Johnny Richardson (6.6 yards per carry) returns and UCF added MAC Offensive Player of the Year Peny Boone (1,400 rush yards, 15 touchdowns). Malzahn runs a run-heavy offensive system and this year has an embarrassment of riches to do so.

Three starters along the offensive line return and the two new faces both have career starts for UCF. Last year, the unit improved despite losing multiple all-conference players and allowed 25 sacks and led the way to over 220 rush yards per game (fourth-most nationally). Four different centers started, including this year's projected starter, sophomore Caden Kinter.

But just because Malzahn leans into the run doesn't mean UCF won't be effective through the air. Hudson assumes the WR1 position this season, but he'll compete for targets with Xavier Townsend (325 yards, 3 TDs). Last year, Hudson and NFL-bound Javon Baker nearly split receptions and yards evenly and this year, we can expect a similar split should Townsend play to his potential.

UCF Knights Defense Preview

Nov 5, 2022; Memphis, Tennessee, USA; Memphis Tigers quarterback Seth Henigan (5) passes the ball as offensive linemen Jonah Gambill (65) blocks UCF Knights defensive linemen Lee Hunter (2) during the first half at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports / Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports

This unit had its ups and downs last year. On one hand, they held six FBS opponents under 30 points (games UCF went 5-1). On the other, they allowed 26 in a single quarter to an offense-averse Baylor, 51 points to Kansas (where they allowed 400!! rushing yards), and 40.6 points per game in that five-game losing streak to open Big 12 play. UCF failed to put up much resistance against the run, finishing eighth-worst in rushing efficiency allowed.

Four starters return from that unit, including DT Lee Hunter (69 tackles, eight tackles for loss, three sacks at nose guard). But, like on offense, Malzahn hit the portal hard to fill gaps. Corner Mac McWilliams leads the 247Sports transfer rankings on the team. He and Cincinnati transfer Byron Threats project to start. In total, four of the top six transfers landed by UCF play in the secondary.

The two linebackers landed in the portal this year are the prized additions of the defense. Deshawn Pace collected 247 tackles and 25.5 TFLs in four years at Cincinnati and Ethan Barr started 39 games in four years. They're two veteran tackling machines promised to improve the run defense in 2024.

There's a new face directing the defense in Orlando this year: Ted Roof. Big 12 fans may be familiar with the name, as Roof most recently headed the defense at Oklahoma. While seasoned, Roof has a nack for not sticking. His results are... varied... but Roof hasn't spent more than two seasons on a staff since leaving Georgia Tech in 2017 (six schools since). In fact, since starting his coaching career nearly 40 years ago (1987), Roof has remained at a school for more than two years three times – as a LBs coach at Duke (1990-93), the head coach at Duke (2004-07), and the DC at Georgia Tech (2013-17).

Best Case Scenario For UCF

Nov 11, 2023; Orlando, Florida, USA; UCF Knights wide receiver Kobe Hudson (2) scores a touchdown during the second half against the Oklahoma State Cowboys at FBC Mortgage Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mike Watters-USA TODAY Sports / Mike Watters-USA TODAY Sports

There's no two ways about it, this team is stacked for 2024. Its density of talent might be the highest among any Big 12 team, particularly at the offensive and defensive skill positions. Jefferson has drawn comparisons to former Malzahn great Cam Newton this offseason and the backfield is one of the most dynamic in the entire country. Having Hudson as a passing threat doesn't hurt, either.

Just a little chemistry from the offensive line – one that continued to improve under Herb Hand despite turnover – could send UCF to the nation's leader in rushing. The cast of opposing defenses could be worse, with Florida and TCU leading the way between Weeks 1-12, but both teams would need to see serious improvement to be considered stout. UCF doesn't face an elite defense until Utah in the season finale.

The Knights could be favored in as many as nine games, depending on how the chips fall. They also could be the nail in the coffin for in-state rival Florida, who they visit in Week 6.

The ceiling here is a Big 12 Championship game. UCF is both talented enough and well-coached enough to make that run. History has shown in each phase of improved competition, UCF adapts and eventually wins. Playing smack in the middle of one of the country's biggest talent hotbeds – Florida and Georgia – means UCF will continue to recruit well and improve.

Worst Case Scenario For UCF

UCF's head coach Gus Malzahn looks at a referee during the Big 12 football game against Texas Tech, Saturday, Nov. 18, 2023, at Jones AT&T Stadium. / Annie Rice/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK

There's a reality in which UCF's offensive line doesn't come together and the defense only moderately improves. The key word in UCF's historical winning trend is "eventually." And that eventually could mean 2025+.

The schedule isn't soft. UCF plays Florida and Cincinnati in back-to-back weeks, both opponents coming off a bye. TCU projects to be a much-improved team, especially defensively, and games at Iowa State and against Arizona prove to be tricky. But that Week 13 and 14 duo of at West Virginia and against Utah is exceptionally difficult. Should the wheels come off and should UCF be fighting for a sixth win in those games, they may not find it.

Teams built in the transfer portal have varying results. Many coaches find immediate success in it (see: Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss and Jeff Brohm, Louisville). But many don't (see: Deion Sanders, Colorado and Mario Cristobal, Miami). After all, the defense has a long way to go before being a strength.

The hiring of Roof is uninspired, if not outright terrible. While a coaches' coach, Roof doesn't stick anywhere he goes. His number of failures vastly outweighs his number of successes, usually confined to pockets of immense talent. This was a bad hire, and it could cost UCF wins.

At worst, UCF likely lands bowl eligible – 6-6 or better, barring absolute disaster.

UCF Knights 2024 Schedule

Date	Opponent
Aug. 29 (Thurs.)	New Hampshire (FCS)
Sept. 7	Sam Houston State
Sept. 14	at TCU
Sept. 21	BYE
Sept. 28	Colorado
Oct. 5	at Florida
Oct. 12	Cincinnati
Oct. 19	at Iowa State
Oct. 26	BYU
Nov. 2	Arizona
Nov. 9	at Arizona State
Nov. 16	BYE
Nov. 23	at West Virginia
Nov. 29 (Friday)	Utah

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