Big 12 Football: Week 4 Matchups and Predictions

Six conference games get league play in full motion.

Last week, TCU and Houston played in the first conference game of the season. Every other team will play their first conference matchups this week as Houston and TCU finish their nonconference slates.

TCU quarterback Chandler Morris against the Houston Cougars.  :: Tony Beblowski/KillerFrogs

Many thought Week 3 would not bring too many exciting games, yet tell that to the crowd in Columbia, MO, after Mizzou’s walk-off field goal. Will Week 4 bring some excitement as well? Possibly. Four of the six games that are conference games currently have single-digit spreads. So, yes, we could see some close games.

Unbeaten Texas will make its last trip to Waco to play Baylor in a conference game. Unbeaten Oklahoma will make its first and only trip to Cincinnati for a conference game. Those two games are the only conference games with spreads above 10 points.

As BYU takes on Kansas, it’s a battle of unbeaten teams in Lawrence. The only other unbeaten team in the league, UCF, travels to Manhattan for its first-ever Big 12 matchup,

Texas Tech at West Virginia and Iowa State at Oklahoma State round up the conference slate for Week 4. TCU hosts SMU in the battle for the Iron Skillet, while Houston hosts Sam Houston State.

2023 Big 12 Predictions Results

On the season, I am 28-13 in predicting Big 12 games. Last week, I had Cincinnati, Iowa State, Kansas State, and Oklahoma State all winning. None did. I also didn’t think BYU could get by Arkansas in Fayetteville, but they did. So, I went 8-5 on the week.

Here are the previous predictions from earlier this season:

Week 1 – 10-4

Week 2 – 10-4

Week 3 – 8-5

Big 12 Week 4 Matchups and Predictions

All times listed are Central Time.

TCU (2-1, 1-0) vs. SMU (2-1, 0-0 AAC)

Saturday, 11 a.m., FS1

It’s the 102nd edition of the battle for the Iron Skillet. TCU has won 12 of the last 15 meetings, but SMU has won two of the last three. It’s been announced that the series will end after the 2025 games. Add that, to the recent announcement of SMU’s move to the ACC, and this game will be full of intensity and emotions. Buckle up.

Read our complete preview of SMU here.

Pick: TCU

Cincinnati (2-1, 0-0) vs. #16 Oklahoma (3-0, 0-0)

Saturday, 11 a.m., Fox

The Sooners are not the team we saw last year. They have looked sharp. Dillon Gabriel has been hot. Yes, Nippert Stadium will be loud and full as the Bearcats celebrate their first Big 12 game, but look for the Sooners to take control early and cruise to the win.

Pick: Oklahoma

West Virginia (2-1, 0-0) vs. Texas Tech (1-2, 0-0)

Saturday, 2:30 p.m., Big 12 Now on ESPN+

Yes, those records are correct. West Virginia comes into the game with more wins than Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are a 6-point favorite, but crazy things happen in Morgantown. Look for a tight game that comes down to the end. West Virginia will cover the spread, but Tech will sneak away with the win.

Pick: Texas Tech

Kansas (3-0, 0-0) vs. BYU (3-0, 0-0)

Saturday, 2:30 p.m., ESPN

The Jayhawks are off to another hot start, just like last year. Will we see more, or have they hit their ceiling? Lance Leipold is doing incredible things in Lawerence. He might be able to get his team to get a few more wins. But Kansas struggled against a bad Nevada team last week, while BYU traveled into hostile SEC country and got the win over Arkansas. Look for the Cougars to quiet the Jayhawks' buzz.

Pick: BYU

Iowa State (1-2, 0-0) vs. Oklahoma State (2-1, 0-0)

Saturday, 3 p.m., FS1

Yawn. Wake me up when this one is over. Iowa State hasn’t shown us any excitement this year, nor has OSU. The Pokes lost big last week at home, something they rarely do, to South Alabama. We said over the summer that something was just not right this year in Stillwater. We may be starting to see the beginning of that. However, I think Gundy will get it together, at least for this game, and steal a win from the favored Cyclones.

Pick: Oklahoma State

Houston (2-1, 0-1) vs. Sam Houston State (0-2, 0-0 CUSA)

Saturday, 6 p.m., Big 12 Now on ESPN+

Houston did not look good last week in its Big 12 debut. Sam Houston State held BYU to two touchdowns in the season's opening game and only lost by 10 to Air Forces. Not too bad for a team playing in the FBS for the first year. I think, though, that Houston will get this win. They may not get many more after this week, though.

Pick: Houston

Baylor (1-2, 0-0) vs. #3 Texas (3-0, 0-0)

Saturday, 6:30 p.m., ABC

This game lacks the luster we thought it might have before the season began. Yes, it’s the last time the Longhorns make the short drive up I-35 to take on their conference foe. But Baylor’s only win came last week over Long Island, and Baylor didn’t pull away from them until halfway through the 3rd quarter. Even with that, they still only won 30-7 over a weak FCS team. Baylor is struggling. Texas is not. Even Bevo will be bored at this blowout of a game.

Pick: Texas

Kansas State (2-1, 0-0) vs. UCF (3-0, 0-0)

Saturday, 7 p.m., FS1

FS1 gets a Big 12 triple-header on Saturday and clearly saved the best conference game of the week for the last one. Kansas State could, and should, be one of the teams that makes it to Arlington in December. Their game last week against Mizzou was epic. The Tigers came through with an unbelievable 61-yarder walk-off. Though, UCF could be the sleeper team in the league this year. They’ve had some great nonconference wins. I think KSU is in store for back-to-back epic games, and this one could also come down to a kick at the end. This time, though, it goes in their favor.

Pick: Kansas State

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