2024 New Mexico Bowl: TCU Vs. Louisiana Prediction

The TCU Horned Frogs take on the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns in the Isleta New Mexico Bowl on Dec. 28 as 13.5-point favorites.

Oct 19, 2024; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Josh Hoover (10) passes against the Utah Utes during the third quarter at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-Imagn Images / Rob Gray-Imagn Images

The TCU Horned Frogs (8-4) play one more game in a turnaround 2024 college football season – the Isleta New Mexio Bowl against the Sun Belt runner-up Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns (10-3). Odds line TCU as a strong 13.5-point favorite in a game chock-full of personnel reshuffling and opt outs. It's a return to the postseason for TCU, who had just one appearance in the prior three seasons (that, of course, being a National Championship appearance in 2022).

The 13.5 lined points (-450 moneyline odds) in favor of TCU suggest a 82% expected win rate for TCU. While larger upsets have happened–especially in an increasingly-less predictable Bowl Season–perhaps this game should be viewed through the lens of what a TCU victory looks like, rather than whether or not the Frogs meet the 82% expectation.

The New Mexico Bowl kicks off Saturday, Dec. 28, at 1:15 p.m. CST/12:15 p.m. MST from University Stadium in Albuquerque N.M. The game will be broadcast on ESPN.

First Of All, Who Is (And Isn't) Playing?

Nov 9, 2024; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs wide receiver Savion Williams (3) catches a touchdown against Oklahoma State Cowboys in the second quarter at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-Imagn Images / Tim Heitman-Imagn Images

It's the unfortunate reality of Bowl Season, but plenty of recognizable names are out of this game on both sides of the ball. First, let's take a look at TCU confirmed absences:

• RB Cam Cook: TCU's leading rusher entered the transfer portal and won't play in this bowl game. Cook rushed for nine touchdowns on 460 yards this past season.
• WR Savion Williams: Williams suffered an injury in the regular season finale and won't play in this game, meaning the senior played his last game for the Horned Frogs. Williams is projected to be selected in April's NFL Draft. He finished the season with 13 touchdowns and nearly 1,000 all purpose yards, most on the team.
• WR Jack Bech: The receiving leader (1,034 yards, 9 TDs) also suffered an injury in the regular season finale and won' t play in this game. That win in Cincinnati was also likely his final game as a Horned Frog. Bech, a senior, doesn't carry the same NFL Draft prospect as Williams, but likely joins the pros in April.
• WR JoJo Earle: He didn't see much playing time since transferring in from Alabama and hit the portal. Earle played just 76 snaps this season.

Safety Jamel Johnson, TCU's third-leading tackler (55) originally entered the transfer portal but withdrew his name this week. The true sophomore will play in this game and return to Fort Worth next season.

Cajuns quarterback Ben Wooldridge 10 runs the ball as the Louisiana Ragin Cajuns take on Tulane atbCajun Field. Saturday, Sept. 21, 2024. / SCOTT CLAUSE/USA TODAY Network / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Now let's take a look at multiple Louisiana absences:

• QB Ben Wooldridge: Wooldridge suffered a season-ending injury in Week 12 and won't play in this game. He was named the Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year and was an instrumental part in Louisiana's 10 wins.
• QB Chandler Fields: Fields, Wooldridge's experienced backup, also suffered an injury in the Sun Belt Championship and was carted off the field. His time appears to be over in Lafayette.
• TE Terrance Carter: Carter was Louisiana's second-leading pass catcher this season and presented a real matchup concern for most opponents. However, Carter hit the transfer portal and heads to Texas Tech.
• WR Harvey Broussard: The Ragin' Cajuns third-leading receiver heads to Houston via the transfer portal. Three of Broussard's 27 catches went for scores.
• WR Robert Williams: Though not heavy on targets, Williams played a majority of offensive snaps this year. He was carted off with an injury in the Sun Belt Championship game, too.
• RB Dre'Lyn Washington: Washington was a contributor in the run game for Louisiana the last three years but hit the transfer portal this winter.

Safety Tyree Skipper, Louisiana's best player on defense, missed the last four games of the season to injury. It's unclear whether he plays or not in this game at this time.

New Mexico Bowl Prediction: TCU Vs. Louisiana

Oct 19, 2024; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Josh Hoover (10) calls the snap count against the Utah Utes during the second quarter at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-Imagn Images / Rob Gray-Imagn Images

Missing the top two quarterbacks on the depth chart isn't something to be ignored. Without either on the field, Louisiana mustered three points and just 56 rushing yards in a 31-3 loss to Marshall in the Sun Belt Championship. Assuming Wooldridge doesn't go–which isn't completely guaranteed, but would be a true shock to see him on the field–TCU has a massive offensive advantage. In line to start across the way would be true freshman Daniel Beale.

TCU's defense struggled this season, even against some pretty mediocre offenses (see: Houston and Arizona games). There's certainly concern that Louisiana hangs around by leaning into a competant run game, led by a handful of players. RB Bud Davis led the team with 777 yards while RB Zylan Perry added 619 of his own.

But without a known rushing threat from Wooldridge (over 450 yards on the ground after subtracting sack yardage), TCU should be able to key in on the running backs and stack the box, much like what Marshall did.

Offensively, TCU shouldn't have much of an issue moving the ball and scoring despite opt outs from Cook and absences from Williams and Bech. Louisiana finished 75th in points per drive allowed and, more concerningly, 127th in points per drive allowed on drives starting inside the opponents' own 20-yard line. The Ragin' Cajuns rank dead last in the country in red zone scoring, allowing at least a field goal on every opposing drive this season.

We do see surprise backup quarterbacks emerge every Bowl Season (see: Caden Veltkamp last year). However, barring an explosion from a true freshman in a consolation bowl for Louisiana, TCU should handily win this game.

The pick: TCU 48, Louisiana 24
(TCU -13.5, Over 57.5 points)

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