Baylor at TCU: Odds, Spread, and Point Total Prediction

The TCU Horned Frogs are +7 underdogs at home against the Baylor Bears on November 6th. How will they fare against the spread and point total?

© Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports

The woes for TCU against point spreads this season continued last week against Kansas State, where the Horned Frogs failed to cover a 3-point spread. On the season, they’re 1-6-1 against the spread, sixth-worst in the country.

They enter Week 10 against the Baylor Bears as seven-point underdogs at home and the point total is 58.5 points (as of Wednesday at DraftKings Sportsbook).

Baylor, on the other hand, is one of the better teams in the country against the spread, sitting 6-2 (12th). Their record can partly be attributed to Baylor exceeding their season-projected 5.5 wins already.

It’s no secret that TCU has struggled against the run badly this season, ranking in the bottom 10 in terms of yards per rush allowed. Conversely, Baylor is top-10 in yards per rush (5.5) on the year. Coupled with a run-heavy attack (58.7%, 23rd-most), the pace of this game will be dominated by the Bears.

On the other side of the ball, Baylor is 27th in the nation in rush yards per attempt allowed and 13th in opposing third down conversion rate (31.4%). A solid linebacking corps– led by Dillion Doyle– often cleans up the gaps that their defensive front opens up. Last week, Baylor held Texas standout Bijan Robinson to just 2.5 yards per carry on 17 attempts.

This is the first game for the Horned Frogs since departing with head coach Gary Patterson. Teams playing without coaches can go one of two ways: they either champion around the interim (Jerry Kill) or they lose direction. Kill joined the team in February 2020 as a special assistant to the head coach and is rarely in rumor mills to retain his role as the full-time head coach beyond this season.

Finally, TCU will also be without starting quarterback Max Duggan, who left last week's game with a foot fracture and is expected to be out for awhile.

Dominance on both sides of the football coupled with TCU’s lack of continuity within the program does not make for a promising outlook. A barrage of points does not seem likely from either team given their tempo and commitment to running the football.

The pick: Baylor -7 AND under 58.5 points.

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