Big 12 Championship Preview: Can Oklahoma State Upend Texas?

Oklahoma State, Texas set to square off in the 2023 Big 12 Championship game. Can the Pokes knock off the Longhorns as the latter exits the league?

Through all the noise of 128 possibilities for the Big 12 Championship participants to pan out, the most obvious possibility unfolded. With their win over BYU, Oklahoma State (9-3) secured their spot against Texas (11-1) in the 2023 Big 12 Championship Game. Mike Gundy's crew would love nothing more than to send Texas off to the SEC with a parting gift – a hearty L.

However, the route to victory for the Pokes is a steep one. Sportsbooks opened the Longhorns as 11.5-point favorites and the betting market deemed that number nearly laughable; Texas stands as a 14-point favorite at time of writing.

The 2023 Big 12 Championship Game kicks off Saturday, Dec. 2, at 11:00 a.m. CT from AT&T Stadium. The game broadcasts on ABC from Arlington.

Nov 24, 2023; Austin, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns defensive lineman T'Vondre Sweat (93) reacts after making a tackle during the first half against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-USA TODAY Sports / © Scott Wachter-USA TODAY Sports

Texas: A Win Away From Being "Back"

The half-decade-old punchline "Texas is back" hasn't brought many chuckles outside of Austin this year. Through lofty expectations, the Longhorns are living up to the billing, having defeated Alabama on the road. At 11-1, Texas is a last-second drive by Oklahoma away from being one of five unbeaten teams. Given the talent on their roster – and the form in which that talent is currently playing – Texas has a real chance to not just claim a Big 12 title, but to take it in convincing fashion.

Quarterback Quinn Ewers returned to the field after a brief absence due to a shoulder injury. Top target Xavier Worthy is expected to go after being banged up in a 50-point Week 13 win over Texas Tech. The two notable Longhorns not expected to play: Freshman running back CJ Baxter and leading rusher Jonathan Brooks. Brooks suffered a season-ending injury and Baxter left Week 13 hurt.

That leaves UT with Jaydon Blue as the lead back, complemented poetically by Savion Red. Blue is rushing for 6.7 yards per carry this season behind one of the league's top offensive lines.

With a likely spot in the College Football Playoff also at risk, Steve Sarkisian's crew will be dialed in Saturday.

Oct 21, 2023; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; Oklahoma State Cowboys running back Ollie Gordon II (0) runs for a touchdown during the first quarter against the West Virginia Mountaineers at Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports / © Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports

Never Count The Pokes Out

Since 2008, Gundy has more 9+ win seasons than 5+ loss seasons. In a league dominated by turnover and uncertainty, he has perhaps been the most consistent pillar. Despite losing the bulk of leadership from the locker room ahead of the 2023 season, Gundy pieced together another 9-3 year, his 10th such campaign in the last 15 seasons.

Even more impressive, the Pokes were able to pick themselves up by the bootstraps after a 2-2 start that featured a 33-7 home blowout loss to 6-6 South Alabama. Once the bye week hit, Oklahoma State was able to return offensive linemen from injury and went on a 7-1 tear to end the season. On the way, the Pokes upended Oklahoma, Kansas, and Kansas State.

The star of the show has been running back Ollie Gordon, who leads the country in rushing. His healthy offensive line has generated nearly three yards before contact per rush, and Gordon has done his part with 3.78 yards after contact per carry.

However, it's worth noting that five of those seven wins after the bye week came by one score. In 50/50 games, a few lucky bounces can change everything. And projecting teams that have been very fortunate in 50/50 games – almost unsustainably so – is a tricky task.

Texas Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian and Hook 'Em sing \"The Eyes of Texas\" following the game against Texas Tech at Darrell K Royal Texas Memorial Stadium on Friday, Nov. 24, 2023 :: © Mikala Compton/American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK

Who Wins The 2023 Big 12 Championship?

Oklahoma State simply cut their final few games too close. It took a multiple-score comeback (and two overtime periods) to close out BYU, whom our staff ranked 10th in the league heading into Week 13. Even a tussle with Houston afforded the Cougars 30 points (UH finished the season 84th in points per drive). When it mattered, the Pokes buckled down and nudged out victories.

But one team skirted by while the other bulldozed their competition.

At times, Texas played down to competition. They played with their food in Houston (31-24 under backup QB Maalik Murphy), nearly blew a three-score lead at home to Kansas State, and only managed to move past TCU by a field goal. But a focused Longhorn team upended Alabama on the road and beat ranked Kansas and Texas Tech by a combined score of 97-21.

The second gear is there, and when it's kicked in, Texas is almost impossible to beat. With a seat in the College Football Playoff on the line, I anticipate Texas finds that second gear.

This Oklahoma State team lacks the defensive prowess of their 2021 squad that last made Arlington. Against an offense as high-octane as Texas (22nd in points per drive), having a susceptible defense could be a death knell. On the other side, Texas' defense is as good as any in the Big 12. The Longhorns held opponents to the 10th-fewest points per drive and 15th-lowest percent of available yards in the country (just 36.6%!).

The recent form from both teams is too much to ignore. One walked their way to Arlington over a quality opponent, the other skirted by a bad opponent.

If the betting market is to believed – which, historically, it is – then Texas wins this game in convincing fashion.

• The pick: Texas 34, Oklahoma State 17

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