Big 12 College Football Team Preview 2024: Baylor Bears

It's do or die for Dave Aranda as the Baylor Bears look to get back on the winning track in 2024. Big 12 Championship expectations have already been set, can Baylor meet those?

Sep 16, 2023; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears head coach Dave Aranda observes pregame warmups before the game against the Long Island Sharks at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-USA TODAY Sports / Chris Jones-USA TODAY Sports

Just two years removed from a Big 12 Championship, calls for head coach Dave Aranda to be replaced are not just growing, but were loud to begin with. In 2021, Baylor finished 12-2, beat Oklahoma State in a thrilling conference title match, and beat Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl. Since then, the Bears are 9-16.

In order to salvage his seat in Waco, Aranda overtakes the defensive playcalling duties. A vaunted coordinator at Wisconsin and LSU, perhaps him taking the reins can turn around a stop unit that did everything but stop opponents. But it's certainly an uphill climb.

Two teams are out of the Big 12 (Oklahoma, Texas) and four are inbound (Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah). With such a major shakeup inbound, what position will Baylor take moving forward?

Baylor Bears Football History

Dec 29 2011; San Antonio, TX, USA; Baylor Bears quarterback Robert Griffin III (10) runs the ball against the Washington Huskies during the third quarter of the Alamo Bowl at the Alamodome. Baylor beat Washington 67-56. Mandatory Credit: Brendan Maloney-USA TODAY Sports / Brendan Maloney-USA TODAY Sports

After joining the Big 12 in 1996, Baylor football wasn't much to write home about. It went 14 straight years without a winning season and didn't appear in a bowl game until its 15th. Then in 2011, QB Robert Griffin III broke out and became the school's first Heisman Trophy winner. From 2011-15 under coach Art Briles, Baylor went an astounding 50-15 (.769) and won two league titles.

Prior to 1996, Baylor resided in the Southwest Conference (SWC). The Bears finished ranked inside the AP Top 25 10 times since their founding in 1903 (poll established 1936). While the program boasts zero national championships, it does claim 10 league titles.

Of course, the program took a major turn following a string of heinous actions under Briles. The scandal derailed the program quickly, but rising coach Matt Rhule turned it around just as fast. Baylor went from 1-11 in 2017 to 11-3 in 2019.

2023: Strike Two

Nov 19, 2022; Waco, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs cornerback Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson (1) and safety Mark Perry (3) and Baylor Bears running back Richard Reese (29) in action during the game between the Baylor Bears and the TCU Horned Frogs at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports / Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

The regression from 12-2 to 6-7 was surprising, to say the least. Baylor returned young breakout QB Blake Shapen, who led BU in the Big 12 Championship game. Shapen stuck around through 2023, but earned a reputation for inopportune turnovers and less production. He worked through injury, missing four games. In his place, young Sawyer Robertson completed just 56% of his passes for two touchdowns and four picks.

Baylor was stunned in its season opener, giving up 42 points to Texas State at home. The Bears' three wins came over FCS Long Island (ranked 98th among Division-I AA teams), UCF (which required a miraculous implosion by the Knights), and Cincinnati (a three-point win Baylor nearly choked away in the fourth quarter).

In two seasons, Baylor's defense plummeted from 16th nationally to 126th in points per drive (PPD) allowed. At the end of the season, Aranda cleaned house.

Baylor Bears Offense Preview

Sep 16, 2023; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears wide receiver Hal Presley (16) against the Long Island Sharks during the first half at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-USA TODAY Sports / Chris Jones-USA TODAY Sports

As bad as the defense was in 2023, the offense was nearly as bad. The Bears were fully incapable of running the football – RB Dominic Richardson finished with a team-high 519 yards. As a result, Baylor failed to score 20 points five times and didn't hold a single FBS opponent under 20 points.

So, Baylor hit the portal. They landed all-conference QB Dequan Finn from Toledo and WR Ashtyn Hawkins from Texas State to revamp the passing game. Perhaps the biggest addition is former Texas State head coach, and most recently Cal offensive coordinator, Jake Spavital to call the plays. Hawkins played with Spavital in San Marcos before the coach was dismissed.

Three starters on the offensive line return and two more were added in the portal: guards Kurt Danneker (Ohio) and Omar Aigbedion (Montana State). As the team that started the single-most freshmen in the Big 12 last year, Baylor should improve, particularly along the offensive line.

As far as conference units go, Baylor's offense should be among the most improved. Finn is a dual-threat option, if not a bit mistake-prone. Hawkins adds depth to a receiving corps with some interesting veteran pieces. A one-two punch in the backfield of Dominic Richardson and Richard Reese, in theory, should improve from a dreadful year on the ground. Rushing attacks are what Spav excels in.

Baylor Bears Defense Preview

Nov 4, 2023; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears linebacker Matt Jones (2) in action against the Houston Cougars during the first half at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-USA TODAY Sports / Chris Jones-USA TODAY Sports

Aranda takes over playcalling duties this year. At LSU, Aranda never led a defense to worse than 36th nationally (PPD), topping out in 2016 with a sixth overall finish. In 2015, Aranda led Wisconsin to the second-ranked defense in the nation. But Baylor doesn't have the defensive athletes available in Baton Rouge or Madison. So, while improvement is almost a certainty, that ceiling is much, much lower.

Seven starters return on defense, including all four in the secondary. However, that secondary finished dead last in passing efficiency allowed last year. The 254 passing yards allowed per game ranked 104th, six team interceptions ranked 111th, and the secondary didn't force a single turnover through Baylor's last three games.

Was inexperience an issue? Of course. But returning a group with that poor a performance leaves a lot to be desired against the pass game. Caden Jenkins provided a burst of life, earning All-America Freshman honors.

The poor pass defense numbers don't just fall on the shoulders of the secondary. The defensive line proved incapable of generating pressure up front – a key aspect of the game that could have changed the course of the Baylor defense in 2023. The front three returns little to be excited about and the Bears were unable to add much juice in the portal.

Best Case Scenario For Baylor

Nov 25, 2023; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears running back Dominic Richardson (21) carries the ball for a 2-yard touchdown against the West Virginia Mountaineers during the second half at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports / Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports

There's a non-negligible amount of talent on this roster. Finn is a high-risk, high-reward player that should thrive in Spavital's system. In fact, Cal's 153 rushing yards per game last year (53rd) was the worst finish Spavital's ever conducted. So, it's fair to assume that Baylor's baseline is a top-50 rushing offense – could be worse!

Usually a sign of a coach on his way out, Aranda assuming the defensive playcalling is a reason for optimism. Under his direct management, a defense hasn't finished worse than 40th nationally; a handful of times they cracked the top 10. If you believe in the young talent improving and the defensive front generating some form of pressure, Baylor's defense could jump 70+ spots nationally.

Should all that come together, Baylor hits its ceiling. But what does that look like? 10-2? 4-8?

The answer is likely somewhere in the middle. Should the Bears fail to make a bowl game, Aranda will be on the open market; he knows that. Baylor plays a favorable home slate (Tarleton State, Air Force, BYU, Oklahoma State, TCU, Kansas) and just a few upsets in Waco could spurn a 7-5 season.

Worst Case Scenario For Baylor

Oct 21, 2023; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Baylor Bears head coach Dave Aranda looks on during the first half against the Cincinnati Bearcats at Nippert Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports / Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

As mentioned, a head coach assuming any sort of playcalling usually indicates a regime on the out. Even if that unit improves, the team as a whole usually doesn't. And it's not just one side of the ball that needs a dramatic turnaround – it's both.

Even if Spavital improves the rushing scheme, the offensive line may not hold up its end of the bargain and Baylor's offense could set a new low for production under Spav. And even if it doesn't set a new low, the receiving corps is unproven and Finn was mistake-prone and sometimes inaccurate (particularly downfield) in the MAC.

The defensive line added almost no one of note, indicating that they may again fail to generate any pressure. The secondary, with the exception of Jenkins, was atrocious. Baylor fell outside the top 100 in tackling, too, per PFF.

Even marginal improvement from this team likely turns Baylor from 3-9 into 5-7. But the floor is another 3-9 win season; perhaps worse thanks to a brutal road slate (Utah, Colorado, Iowa State, Texas Tech, West Virginia, Houston). Aside from Kansas State, Baylor plays five of the top six projected finishers in the Big 12, according to sportsbook odds (five of the top seven, according to the Big 12 media poll).

2024 Baylor Bears Schedule

Date	Opponent
Aug. 31	Tarleton State (FCS)
Sept. 7	at Utah
Sept. 14	Air Force
Sept. 21	at Colorado
Sept. 28	BYU
Oct. 5	at Iowa State
Oct. 12	BYE
Oct. 19	at Texas Tech
Oct. 26	Oklahoma State
Nov. 2	TCU
Nov. 9	BYE
Nov. 16	at West Virginia
Nov. 23	at Houston
Nov. 30	Kansas

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