Big 12 College Football Team Preview 2024: Kansas State Wildcats

There's an empty throne atop the Big 12. Can Chris Kliemann and the Kansas State Wildcats assume it, now that they are conference favorites?

Oct 21, 2023; Manhattan, Kansas, USA; Kansas State Wildcats quarterback Avery Johnson (5) warms up before the start of a game against the TCU Horned Frogs at Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports / Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports

Moving on from a coach so legendary that his name adorns the stadium in which they play is nearly difficult, but Chris Kliemann has successfully taken the baton at Kansas State. In four full seasons, Kliemann is 35-18 (.660) with a Big 12 Championship. But he and the Wildcats aren't satisfied. Kansas State rises an uber-talented young QB and veteran cast around him. According to sportsbook odds, K-State is favored to win the league.

Of course, being the favorite comes with expectations. K-State won't sneak up on anyone this year and they'll get every team's best effort. Is this team equipped to handle that?

Kansas State Wildcats Football History

Nov 25, 2017; Manhattan, KS, USA; Kansas State Wildcats head coach Bill Snyder looks on in the first half against the Iowa State Cyclones at Bill Snyder Family Stadium. The Wildcats won the game 20-19. Mandatory Credit: Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports / Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports

Kansas State football doesn't start and end with Bill Snyder, but there's a reason his name sits above the main entrance of the stadium. Before Snyder began his tenure, Kansas State had two appearances in the AP Poll (s. 1936) and one single bowl appearance (not in the same years as their AP ranking). The word that best summarizes K-State pre-1989: dreadful.

But after a rocky start – Synder went just 1-10 in Year 1 – he began to build the Wildcats. In 1993, they began a stretch of 12 straight years appearing in the AP Poll, finishing ranked 10 times, breaching the top 10 six times, and cresting inside the top five three times (1998-2000). After a successful stint, Snyder announced his retirement after the 2005 since.

At least, he did. Snyder returned to Kansas State in 2009 and picked up where he left off the first time. He made eight consecutive bowl games from 2010-17. After the 2018 season, he retired for good, giving way to Kliemann.

2023: Expectations Set

Sep 2, 2023; Manhattan, Kansas, USA; Kansas State Wildcats offensive lineman Cooper Beebe (50) congratulates quarterback Will Howard (18) following a touchdown in the second quarter against the Southeast Missouri State Redhawks at Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports / Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports

In 2022, Kansas State made the leap from Big 12 contenders to Big 12 champions. The follow-up act in 2023 was always going to be difficult, but a 9-4 campaign is nothing to scoff at. Will Howard conducted the offense for a majority of the year, throwing for 2,600 yards and 24 touchdowns, and rushing for nine more. Howard had the benefit of playing behind NFL offensive lineman Cooper Beebe and with second-round NFL draft pick TE Ben Sinnot.

K-State fell to Missouri (future top-10 finisher and Cotton Bowl champion), Oklahoma State, Texas (CFP semifinalist), and Iowa State by an average 5.3 points. The finale was the toughest pill to swallow. Against 5-6 rival Iowa State – in a rivalry lovingly named Farmageddon – Kansas State's defense allowed true freshman RB Abu Sama III to rush for over 270 yards and three touchdowns in a blinding snowstorm; the Wildcats fell, 42-35.

But the biggest story of the year may well have been true freshman QB Avery Johnson. In his debut, Johnson rushed for five touchdowns against Texas Tech (Week 7). He also appeared in Week 8 against TCU, but ultimately never gave way to Howard. His flash of brilliance was what pushed Howard out, who transferred to Ohio State.

Kansas State Wildcats Offense Preview

Oct 28, 2023; Manhattan, Kansas, USA; Kansas State Wildcats running back DJ Giddens (31) runs the ball during the first quarter against the Houston Cougars at Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports / Scott Sewell-USA TODAY Sports

Offensive coordinator Colin Klein was lured away by Texas A&M. In his place, K-State promoted offensive line coach Conor Riley and also added former Utah State head coach Matt Wells as co-OC. While Klein is a brilliant play caller, this is Kliemann's offensive system. Don't expect much to change.

Johnson takes over as QB1, adding a dynamism to the ground game. Howard was a capable rusher, after all he picked up over 460 non-sack rushing yards and nine touchdowns, but Johnson is a better runner and athlete. He'll be a fine complement alongside RB D.J. Giddens, who rushed for over 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2023.

Replacing Beebe on the offensive line is no easy task; the guard was a third-round selection to the Dallas Cowboys in April. But K-State is an excellent developer of offensive linemen and should again have a serviceable, if not excellent, front. Guard Hadley Panzer is the lone returning full-time starter, although tackle Carver Willis did start seven games last year. Easton Kilty transfers in from North Dakota to anchor the left tackle position.

New pass catchers will have to emerge this season. The top two receivers, Sinnot and No. 1 receiver Philip Brooks, depart. Keagan Johnson (227 yards, two touchdowns) and Jayce Brown (437, 3 TDs) to return and Giddens is a capable receiver himself (29 receptions in 2023). The backfield is bolstered by Colorado RB Dylan Edwards, who is also a talented receiver out of the backfield. Penn State transfer Dante Cephas adds a deep threat to the receiving corps.

But the offense will only go as far as Johnson takes it. While he is a dangerous rusher, Johnson completed only 56% of his passes last season. In his most independent start (the Pop-Tarts Bowl against NC State), Johnson did lead K-State to a win and accounted for three of the team's four touchdowns, but he only completed 14-of-31 passes (42%).

Kansas State Wildcats Defense Preview

Dec 3, 2022; Arlington, TX, USA; Kansas State Wildcats defensive end Felix Anudike-Uzomah (91) and defensive end Brendan Mott (38) celebrate after Anudike-Uzomah sacks TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Max Duggan (15) during the second half at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports / Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

For the past few seasons, Kansas State's defense has done just enough to win lots of games. Last year, it finished 34th in points per drive (PPD), the best finish under Kliemann. In four complete seasons (removing 2020), the Wildcats have been remarkably consistent, finishing between 34th and 46th nationally in PPD. But in three of four losses, opponents were able to crack 30 points (Oklahoma State came up just shy at 29).

The rushing defense has to improve. K-State allowed 240 yards on the ground per game, culminating in that Week 13 game, allowing over 270 to Sama alone. Four starters in the front six return, as does APEX safety Jordan Riley. Linebacker Austin Moore anchors the defense, returning after recording 11 TFLs.

Corner Jacob Parrish (9 pass breakups) heads a defensive secondary that is one of the better in the country. Only one new full-time starter rises, senior Keenan Garber, who started five games last season (4 PBU, one interception). Of the 11 starters on defense, 10 are juniors or older.

The expectation has been set – Kansas State likely falls somewhere around the top 40 defensively again this year, with a ceiling around the top 25. If the offense upholds its end of the bargain, the defense should do enough to win plenty of games once again.

Best Case Scenario For Kansas State

Kansas State's quarterback Avery Johnson (5) scores a touchdown against Texas Tech in a Big 12 conference football game, Saturday, Oct. 14, 2023, at Jones AT&T Stadium. / Annie Rice/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK

The path to a best-case scenario season is pretty cut-and-dry: Avery Johnson turns out to be a star. He's the highest rated QB recruit in K-State history and for good reason. But Johnson will have to evolve as a passer and his receivers will have to improve to help the youngster come along in his completion rate.

The schedule sets up nicely for a best-case season. An early-season game at Tulane could prove to be tricky, but K-State gets the Green Wave early in a transition (and Tulane beat them in 2022, so the element of surprise is long gone). Games at West Virginia and the season finale at Iowa State are the most difficult road games on the slate.

The Wildcats handle their toughest opponents, Arizona, Oklahoma State, Kansas, in Manhattan. This year, K-State might be favored in every game, with closer point spreads projected against the Pokes and Jayhawks. Being favored in all 12 games doesn't mean 12-0, but this schedule sets up for a potential 11-win season in Manhattan.

That likely results in a conference championship, top-four CFP seed, and first-round bye.

Worst Case Scenario For Kansas State

Nov 4, 2023; Austin, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns linebacker Jaylan Ford (41) and defensive back Derek Williams Jr. (2) tackle Kansas State Wildcats wide receiver Keagan Johnson (10) during the second half at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-USA TODAY Sports / Scott Wachter-USA TODAY Sports

Banking on a young QB rushing for multiple touchdowns every game is a fools errand. Five touchdowns is clearly an outlier, not an expectation. And there's no guarantee Johnson improves as a passer. Other names to show flashes of prowess on the ground, but ultimately stagnate or regress as passers include Jeff Sims and Adrian Martinez. Not to say Johnson will turn into either of those turnover-prone players, but the precedent has been set.

Luckily for Kansas State, the schedule is so favorable that they likely won't fall below 8-4 – that would be an unmitigated disaster to fall short of that. Also luckily for the Wildcats, Arizona doesn't count toward conference standings and, therefore, isn't a "must win" for the Big 12.

Phil Steele ranks the offensive line 61st nationally, far below what the Wildcats are used to. Should that unit – that only returns one starter – fall below recent expectations, it'll be a tough adjustment year for Johnson and the ground game could regress.

However, note the number of "ifs" and "coulds" above. A true floor for this team is still an 8-4 conference contender, thanks to its slate of opponents. Of all Big 12 teams, K-State's floor might be the highest.

2024 Kansas State Wildcats Schedule

Date	Opponent
Aug. 31	UT Martin (FCS)
Sept. 7	at Tulane
Sept. 14	Arizona*
Sept. 21	at BYU
Sept. 28	Oklahoma State
Oct. 5	BYE
Oct. 12	at Colorado
Oct. 19	at West Virginia
Oct. 26	Kansas
Nov. 2	at Houston
Nov. 9	BYE
Nov. 16	Arizona State
Nov. 23	Cincinnati
Nov. 30	at Iowa State

*Game vs. Arizona was previously scheduled as a non-league game and will be played as such. This game will NOT count toward Big 12 standings.

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