Big 12 College Football Team Preview 2024: TCU Horned Frogs

Sonny Dykes and the TCU Horned Frogs look to recover from one of the most severe playoff hangovers in college football history.

Nov 11, 2023; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Josh Hoover (10) in action during the game between the TCU Horned Frogs and the Texas Longhorns at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports / Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

As it stands today, the most apt word to describe the 2022 national runner-up TCU Horned Frogs team is, "inexplicable." Sandwiched between two 5-7 teams sits that 13-2 CFP team that cemented themselves in the lore of college football forever. But TCU faithful likely want that inexplicable tag removed and their team to be back in Big 12, and national, contention.

Is the 2024 team one to prove Sonny Dykes a great head coaching hire? There's a lot of promise, and a lot of unknowns, with this team. Let's dive right in.

TCU Horned Frogs Offense Preview

Sep 30, 2023; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs wide receiver JP Richardson (7) runs for a touchdown after catching a pass against West Virginia Mountaineers safety Anthony Wilson (12) in the first quarter at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports / Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

QB Josh Hoover returns as QB1 after a freshman season filled with highs and lows. He was thrown into the mix in Week 6 and started the remainder of the season. Against BYU, Hoover attempted 58 passes and threw for 439 yards and four touchdowns. Just a week later against Kansas State, he attempted 43 more passes for just 187 yards and no touchdowns (one interception). Hoover threw for over 300 yards in five of his six starts last season, but also attempted 46 passes per game.

His top two receivers return in Savion Williams (573 yards, 4 touchdowns) and J.P. Richardson (536, 3 TDs). However, safety outlet Jared Wiley does not, instead being replaced by Baylor transfer Drake Dabney (552, 5 TDs). 1,200-yard rusher Emani Bailey moved on to the NFL, and RB1 duties appear to be poised for rising sophomore Cam Cook. Trey Sanders is still in town, but the former No. 1 RB recruit managed just 3.7 yards per carry last year.

Three starters need replaced on the offensive line and two of them will be filled by transfers. Alabama reserve center James Brockermeyer was one of the top-rated transfers landed by TCU, per 247Sports. Florida State's Bless Harris started just six games the last two years and comes in to anchor the left tackle position.

TCU's offense found spotty success using the air-it-out approach with Hoover to end the year. However, for every 40-point outing (BYU, Oklahoma), TCU failed to breach 20 points (Kansas State, Iowa State). They'll have to strike a better balance this year.

Highly-touted recruit Hauss Hejny sits in waiting should Hoover and Vanderbilt transfer Ken Seals (career 61% completion, 28 TDs, 22 INTs) fizzle out. The staff likely wants to hold Hejny until at least 2025, if not 2026.

TCU Horned Frogs Defense Preview

Oct 14, 2023; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; Brigham Young Cougars quarterback Kedon Slovis (10) passes the ball over TCU Horned Frogs linebacker Namdi Obiazor (4) during the game at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports / Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Like the offense, TCU's defense had some nice games, but some disastrous ones. It surrendered a sickening 69 points to Oklahoma in the Sooners' final Big 12 game. That bookended a season that began with allowing 45 points at home to 4-8 Colorado. But it stifled SMU to just 17 points and Texas to 29. There were some good moments but, in aggregate, constituted a liability.

So, TCU decided to swing for the fences and hired defensive guru Andy Avalos. Avalos was ousted as head coach at Boise State, but brings a long track record of defensive salvage jobs to Fort Worth.

Work needs to be done up front. The defensive line wasn't great last year – they managed just a 5.7% sack rate (79th) – and the best players depart to the portal and graduation. Devean Deal was a huge get from Tulane at the APEX position (versatile, but mostly a stand-up edge rusher). Deal recorded 15.5 tackles for loss in two years with the Green Wave.

Cal transfer Kaleb Elams-Orr recorded 92 tackles last year and comes in to complement 2023 leading tackler Namdi Obiazor. The tandem makes up one of the more productive linebacking duos in the Big 12.

Bud Clark and Avery Helm return as starters in the secondary and are complemented by Utah transfer JaTravis Broughton (118 tackles, 11 PBUs in four years) and Memphis transfer Cameron Smith (74 tackles, 7 PBUs in two years). Clark, a captain last year, anchors the unit with veteran leadership and logged three picks last year.

Overall, the defense should be a seriously-improved unit. Avalos has a long track record of building disruptive defenses and the inbound transfers appear to be Day 1 impact players.

Best Case Scenario For TCU

Sep 23, 2023; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs safety Bud Clark (21) celebrates after he intercepts an SMU Mustangs pass during the second half at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports / Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Winning the Big 12 isn't out of the range of possibilities, especially in a league this wide-open. While perhaps not the most likely outcome, TCU should be in the mix for most of the year. The Horned Frogs should be favored in six or seven games with tossups being marked for UCF, at SMU, and Arizona. As it stands before the 2024 season, TCU should only find themselves underdogs at Kansas, at Utah, and perhaps against Oklahoma State.

Given the schedule, the ceiling for this TCU team could be as high as 10-2, but more realistically appears to be 9-3. Without Oklahoma or Texas in the league – opponents TCU is 83-34-1 against – the annual ceiling is raised for the Horned Frogs.

The best case scenario presents itself if Hoover builds off his 300+ yard performances and cuts down on the turnovers. Only once this year did Hoover avoid throwing an interception, Week 12 against Baylor (412 yards, 3 total TDs). 12 of Hoover's throws last year were graded by Pro Football Focus as "turnover worthy," versus just 13 that graded out as a Big Time Throw.

But Hoover has a year of experience under his belt. It's reasonable to expect improvement, particularly in the turnover department. He has a cast of talented pass catchers and a veteran line in front of him.

Worst Case Scenario For TCU

Oklahoma Sooners defensive back Reggie Pearson (21) throws down TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Josh Hoover (10) as he loses the ball during a college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) and the TCU Horned Frogs at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., Friday, Nov. 24, 2023. Oklahoma won 69-45. / BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK

Taking raw passing yards is a flawed way of measuring QB effectiveness. After all, it took 46 attempts per game (!!!) to get Hoover to his 339.5 yard per-game average (7.4 yards per attempt). Without a 1,200 yard rusher to keep defenses honest, opponents could simply drop eight and force TCU's hand into relying on the run game more. And that could be disastrous.

The other half of the Hoover skepticism comes in that there's tape on the youngster out now. Big 12 opponents had a full offseason to gameplan against his tendencies. So while Hoover should improve, so will the defensive game plans he sees.

The schedule doesn't do TCU too many favors. The non-conference slate is winnable, particularly games at Stanford and against FCS Long Island. SMU presents as a tricky challenge since the Mustangs have a week off before hosting TCU. The Horned Frogs play six of the top eight projected Big 12 teams, per sportsbook odds, avoiding Kansas State and Iowa State.

TCU's floor this season is what we've seen in 2023 and 2021 and 2019 – 5-7. Favoring TCU in seven games requires nobody to take a notable step forward, namely Cincinnati and Texas Tech. UCF and Utah greatly improve their rosters year-over-year and Arizona kept the core roster intact despite turnover in the coaching ranks.

This is a tough conference schedule, cut and dry. And if TCU doesn't take a big step forward – particularly along both lines – another middling season is inbound. And 2022 will cement itself as truly, "inexplicable."

TCU Horned Frogs 2024 Schedule

Date	Opponent
Aug. 30 (Friday)	at Stanford
Sept. 7	Long Island (FCS)
Sept. 14	UCF
Sept. 21	at SMU
Sept. 28	at Kansas
Oct. 4 (Friday)	Houston
Oct. 12	BYE
Oct. 19	at Utah
Oct. 26	Texas Tech
Nov. 2	at Baylor
Nov. 9	Oklahoma State
Nov. 16	BYE
Nov. 23	Arizona
Nov. 30	at Cincinnati

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