Big 12 College Football Team Preview 2024: West Virginia Mountaineers

After a coach-saving 9-4 season, can Garrett Greene and West Virginia repeat its success in a Big 12 Conference wide-open for the taking?

Nov 18, 2023; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers quarterback Garrett Greene (6) runs for extra yards during the first quarter against the Cincinnati Bearcats at Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports / Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports

At this same time last year, Neal Brown was at the center of scrutiny. He led West Virginia to three straight losing complete seasons and, in the only bowl WVU made, his team was crushed 18-6. Without a real answer at quarterback, the Mountaineers appeared to be in trouble. But Garrett Greene emerged as not just a satisfactory starter, but a real answer at the most important position in sports. WVU won nine games and Brown saved his job for a few years to come.

That team came out of virtually nowhere. This year's team does not have the element of surprise. West Virginia received 17 votes to be included in the preseason AP Top 25 and Greene is a known, if not fully appreciated, asset. In 2024, West Virginia won't be sneaking up on anybody.

With expectations now on their shoulders, how do the Mountaineers respond?

West Virginia Mountaineers Football History

December 1, 2012; Morgantown, WV, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers wide receiver Tavon Austin (1) carries the ball against the Kansas Jayhawks during the third quarter at Milan Puskar Field. The West Virginia Mountaineers won 59-10. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports / Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

West Virginia isn't widely considered a blue blood of the college football world. This section isn't to convince you otherwise, but WVU lands 15th in the FBS in all-time wins (781). That number puts them ahead of Texas A&M, Washington, and Florida and just behind Clemson (798).

The key? West Virginia never really had a miserable stretch of years. A 4-8 2013 season quickly turned into 10-4 by 2016. 3-8 in 2001 turned into 9-4 the next year and, eventually, three-straight 11-win seasons under Rich Rodriguez. Be it in the Big East or the Big 12, WVU always finds a way to win football games, decade in and decade out.

While the leash was far from short for Brown, the winning history does explain why he was firmly on the hot seat after a four-year stint that never broke six wins (23-25 overall before 2023). Four of the previous six coaches won 10+ games at least once and one of the exceptions, interim-turned-full-time Bill Stewart, went 9-4 in three consecutive seasons (2008-10).

In its history, WVU has 15 conference titles while occupying a conference for just 50 of its 113-year history.

2023: Saving the Regime

Oct 21, 2023; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers wide receiver Devin Carter (5) catches a pass for a touchdown against the Oklahoma State Cowboys during the second quarter at Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports / Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports

Those calls for Brown to be replaced only grew louder when West Virginia was trounced by rival Penn State in its opening game, 38-15. To add insult to injury, Penn State head coach James Franklin executed a fake kneeldown up 16 points and threw a touchdown to cover the spread and pile the points on.

WVU won its next four games, including over Texas Tech and TCU, before losing a true shocker to former coach Dana Holgorsen and Houston on a desperate Hail Mary. Without that truly bizarre ending, WVU would have finished 10-3 with losses to just Penn State, Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma – all top-20 teams nationally.

Greene emerged as a real dual-threat QB. He finished the year in the lead for QB rushing touchdowns (13), second in Big Time Throw rate, and top-five in average depth of target. A running back duo of Jaheim White and C.J. Donaldson combined for over 1,600 yards and standout DB Beanie Bishop led the country with 20 pass breakups.

West Virginia Mountaineers Offense Preview

West Virginia Mountaineers quarterback Garrett Greene (6) carries the ball on a touchdown run in the third quarter during an NCAA college football game between the Cincinnati Bearcats and the West Virginia Mountaineers, Saturday, Nov. 18, 2023, at Milan Puskar Stadium in Morgantown, W. Va. The West Virginia Mountaineers won, 42-21. / Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

WVU's top three rushers – White, Donaldson, and Greene – all return this season. The combined for over 2,300 yards and 28 touchdowns, a massive trio to return. While WVU's leading receiver, Devin White, leaves, the next four top receivers are all back. Two full-time offensive line starters need replacing, but the risers both started four games apiece in 2023.

Greene sits in a really interesting position. The only thing keeping him from the national conversation was completion rate (only 63% when adjusted for drops). Otherwise, he had both the tape and the underlying numbers to be an interesting QB on the national scale. Should Greene improve that completion rate in 2024, he could be a longshot contender for the Heisman Trophy.

The receiving corps is bolstered by Oklahoma State's fourth-leading receiver, Jaden Bray (382 yards, 2 TDs). While Carter led the squad in yards, TE Kole Taylor led in receptions (35). Greene excelled at spreading the ball around – four receivers had at least 22 receptions while nobody topped Taylor's 35. That kind of offensive style, one that relies on the run game and play-action to the TE, should continue this season.

WVU's offense steadily improved throughout 2023. It failed to score 21 until its fourth game, then it averaged 34.6 in its last eight games, including a 30-10 win in the Mayo Bowl. That kind of improvement is usually a good indicator year-over-year of success.

West Virginia Defense Preview

Penn State quarterback Drew Allar (15) is tackled by West Virginia's Sean Martin after scrambling around with the ball at Beaver Stadium September 2, 2023, in State College. / Dan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK

While the offense improved, the defense regressed. Highs like holding Pitt to six points, Texas Tech to 13, and TCU to 21 fell to lows like allowing 41 to an abysmal Houston, 48 to Oklahoma State, and 59 to Oklahoma. In those four losses, WVU's defense allowed a shocking 46.5 points per game.

Middle linebacker Trey Lathan returns after missing Weeks 6 on with an injury (also a general correlation to when WVU began giving up more points). Do-it-all APEX defender Aubrey Burks returns, as does standout defensive end Sean Martin. Defensive back Anthony Wilson was a coveted safety from Georgia Southern and he transfers in to Morgantown.

But this defensive unit currently lacks a true star. This year, be it Latham, Martin, Burks, or someone else, a player coaches must game plan against has to emerge. In conference wins, this unit was inconsistent. The defense gave up 30 points per game in conference play, but only 20.2 in conference wins. More consistency and better outcomes against tougher offenses is a must in 2024.

Stopping the run should be the primary focus to this year's unit. Returning Latham to the middle is a huge boost in that category; WVU allowed 150 rush yards once in games he played last year and three times without (including 281 yards to Oklahoma State).

Best Case Scenario For West Virginia

Sep 9, 2023; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers wide receiver Hudson Clement (84) catches a pass and runs for a touchdown during the first quarter against the Duquesne Dukes at Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports / Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports

The best of West Virginia is every bit a Big 12 Championship team as any other in this league. Despite major injuries last year (Zach Frazier, Latham), WVU won nine games. It pulled off three outright upsets over Texas Tech (+6), TCU (+14), and UCF (+7). And it was a wild ending on the road against a former coach away from winning 10 games last year.

Bishop and Carter are notable departures, but not crippling ones. The offense should continue to function as it did in 2023 and dominate on the ground. WVU avoids Utah and handles Kansas State, UCF, and Kansas at home. But the road through the Big 12 is still a tough one – WVU plays Oklahoma State and Arizona on the road.

Greene's underlying metrics point to a QB ready to make a break onto the big stage. His big time throw rate and downfield passing numbers mirror Jalen Milroe (Alabama). His rushing production was rivaled only by Heisman winner Jayden Daniels. And the run game should be as strong as it was last year, if not slightly better.

WVU could be favored in as many as seven games and two others (Kansas State, at Arizona) could be lined as toss-ups. Just a few bounces their way, and one or two conference upsets, would send WVU to Arlington.

Worst Case Scenario For West Virginia

Oct 21, 2023; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers head coach Neal Brown talks with West Virginia Mountaineers quarterback Garrett Greene (6) during the first quarter against the Oklahoma State Cowboys at Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports / Ben Queen-USA TODAY Sports

Thirteen rushing touchdowns for Greene could be graded as an outlier number. With so much talent in the backfield, it's expected that number regresses. Greene's completion rate may not improve in his senior season. Offensively, we may have seen the best of WVU, especially as they surprised teams like TCU and UCF. This year, teams have seen that system.

The conference slate does WVU no favors. The Mountaineers miss Houston, Arizona State, and BYU – three of the projected bottom teams in the league. Last year, they played all six of the bottom finishers in the league. The schedule luck doesn't seem to back them.

To make matters worse, WVU plays two arch rivals in non-conference play, Penn State and Pitt. The latter comes on the road, a place WVU lost in just two years ago. The Nittany Lions project to be a top-10 team nationally, if not top five. ESPN's FPI ranks WVU's schedule the 36th-toughest in the country.

The range of realistic outcomes for the Mountaineers is vast. 7-5 isn't impossible, and neither is 6-6. But neither is 10-2 or, seriously, 11-1. The most likely outcome is certainly somewhere in between.

West Virginia Mountaineers 2024 Schedule

Date	Opponent
Aug. 31	Penn State
Sept. 7	Albany (FCS)
Sept. 14	at Pitt
Sept. 21	Kansas
Sept. 28	BYE
Oct. 5	at Oklahoma State
Oct. 12	Iowa State
Oct. 19	Kansas State
Oct. 26	at Arizona
Nov. 2	BYE
Nov. 9	at Cincinnati
Nov. 16	Baylor
Nov. 23	UCF
Nov. 30	at Texas Tech

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