Big 12 Football Preview: Baylor Bears

Dave Aranda took Baylor to a Big 12 Championship in Year 2. After a step back, can Aranda and the Bears return to the top?

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In 2021, second-year head coach Dave Aranda found lightning in a bottle. As the saying goes, lightning never strikes the same place twice. Such was the case for the Baylor Bears, who slipped to a 6-7 finish, capped by a chilled bowl loss to Air Force in arch rival TCU's own stadium.

But there's reason to believe Baylor rebounds in some form this coming season. Core starters on both sides of the football return and there's continuity in the program. The path to the Big 12 Championship won't be an easy one for the Bears, who would need to piece together another 2021-type season to be in contention.

For the remainder of July, I'll be previewing each Big 12 member for the upcoming 2023 college football season. Agree (or disagree) with the assessment? Let me know on Twitter @roadtocfb.

Baylor Bears Rundown

• 2022 Record: 6-7 (4-5 Big 12)
• Head coach: Dave Aranda (4th season)
• Offensive coordinator: Jeff Grimes (3rd season)
• Defensive coordinator: Matt Prowledge (1st season)
• Returning starters: 12 (7 offense, 5 defense)
• 2023 recruiting rank: 6th in Big 12
• 2023 transfer rank: 5th in Big 12

Looking Back To 2022

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Baylor had to make due with a ton of departures on defense, following a season in which they finished 12th in points allowed. They lost key positional coaches and the foundation of their disruptive unit to the NFL. Predictably, Baylor slid in defensive fortitude.

What was less predictable, however, was the level in which Baylor slid. In 2022, they finished 72nd in total scoring allowed and 98th in points per drive allowed. The Bears dropped their last four games of the season, allowing an average of 32 points per game across those losses.

Their season ended brutally: in record-cold temperature, inside their arch-rival's home stadium, to an extremely physical and conditioned Air Force team, 30-15 in the Armed Forces Bowl. Aranda axed defensive coordinator Ron Roberts before the bowl game.

Baylor Bears 2023 Season Outlook

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To replace Roberts, Baylor hired former assistant Matt Prowledge, who had coached Oregon's defense for a season in between stints in Waco. Prowledge was the safeties coach and put two players into the NFL, namely Jalen Pitre. He understands the Baylor system from the successful 2021 defense and was an instrumental part in executing it. Prowledge is a local hire for Aranda's staff.

For better or for worse, just five starters return on defense. One of their top players – coincidentally, a safety – Al Walcott transferred to Arkansas in the offseason while the anchor to the defensive line, Siaki Ika, went to the NFL. The defensive front is filled with younger and inexperienced players but packs a punch with plenty of size. Both ends, TJ Franklin and Gabe Hall are both seniors that stand 6-foot-5 and 6-foot-6, respectively.

The linebacking corps and secondary bring more experience than the front. Overall, the defense should improve, given that it's difficult for them to step back.

The offense will only go as far as rising junior Blake Shapen takes them. Shapen showed plenty of flashes of playmaking, highlighted by his Big 12 Championship performance as a freshman. However, he took a step back as a sophomore, never passing for more than 250 yards in Baylor victories.

At his worst, Shapen outright cost Baylor games (see: 2022 vs. West Virginia). The chaotic element of Shapen behind center is something the Bears hope to clear up this year. Behind him is capable Mississippi State transfer Sawyer Robinson, who could take over if things go south.

Baylor's running back room is perhaps their strongest unit. Richard Reese returns off a nearly 1,000-yard season, and Oklahoma State's Dominic Richardson transferred in. In wins last year, Baylor dominated the ground game. During a three-game win streak, the Bears rushed for 262 yards per game, attempting nearly 120 rushes against Texas Tech and Oklahoma combined.

Just one starter returns along the offensive line, guard Gavin Beyers, and Clark Barrington transferred in from BYU. The inexperience along the front is bad news for the offense as a whole, but especially for Shapen.

The receiving room gained the most from the transfer portal this offseason. Arkansas' Ketron Jackson and North Texas tight end Jake Roberts both project to be starters for Baylor this year and add a bit of experience to an underwhelming corps from 2022. Three of the top four receivers from last season also return to give the room a bit of depth. However, no player topped 600 yards nor five touchdowns last year despite Shapen throwing for nearly 3,000 yards.

The Case For Baylor In 2023

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As mentioned, the defense can't regress much more from last season's production. While the unit had shown the ability to jam the run, they fell apart, allowing nearly 200 yards on the ground over their last six games (granted, the meat of their schedule). Talent up front and experience behind can go a long way in a Big 12 where lots of offensive production exit the top teams.

However, two things have to come together in order for Baylor to return to an 8+ win team: the offensive line and Shapen limiting turnovers. Shapen threw 10 interceptions to just 18 touchdowns last year and coughed up the football more times than the Bears would have liked to see.

But if Baylor can get a push up front in the run game and utilize both of their talented backs, they could bully their way into Big 12 contention.

Phil Steele indicates a positive regression for Baylor in 2023, naming them to his Most Improved list. Given that three of their six regular-season losses were by one score, it's possible a few bounces go Baylor's way this season.

They host Utah and Texas, but travel to TCU and Kansas State. The schedule is much more balanced than last season, with a kind middle stretch of it that includes Long Island (FCS), Texas, at UCF, Texas Tech, at Cincinnati, Iowa State, and Houston. They also play eight games at home – the most ever in Baylor's history.

The Case Against Baylor In 2023

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There is a possibility – a strong one, even – that Shapen just isn't really that good. In Baylor's wins last year, he never topped 250 yards and was limited to just 24 passing attempts per game. He unraveled completely on the road against West Virginia, as well.

A chaotic quarterback like Shapen can only be helped by an experienced and sturdy offensive line, a luxury Baylor does not have. They fall outside the top 60 OL units nationally (per Phil Steele) and rank last in the Big 12, per Athlon Sports.

The defense should be fine, but this is a team that will have to rely on their run game, defense, and ball control to win games in 2023. That's not impossible, but it might also keep them out of contention against offenses like Utah, Texas, TCU, and even Texas Tech.

The case against Baylor isn't that they'll go 4-8. But a lot of unforeseen things would have to go right for the Bears in 2023 to get them to 9-3. I project them for 7.2 wins against the 20th-most difficult schedule nationally.

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