Big 12 Football Preview: BYU Cougars
The biggest conference realignment since 2013 began July 1. The Big 12 brings in four new members – BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF – beginning with the 2023 college football season. The BYU Cougars aren't unfamiliar to longtime TCU fans, as the two teams shared a conference from 2005-11 before the Cougars went independent and the Horned Frogs moved to the Big 12 themselves. BYU brings a storied resume to the table, including a National Championship (1984) and a Heisman Trophy winner (Ty Detmer, 1990).
BYU has also seen a string of recent success, having won 29 games over the last three seasons. Two successive quarterbacks were drafted into the NFL (Zach Wilson, Jarren Hall), the Cougars have gone bowling in 17 of the last 18 seasons, and ended ranked in the Top 25 in 11 of those years.
Please welcome to the stage, the BYU Cougars.
For the remainder of July, I'll be previewing each Big 12 member for the upcoming 2023 college football season. Agree (or disagree) with the assessment? Let me know on Twitter @roadtocfb.
BYU Big 12 Member Profile
- Previous: Independent
- 2022 record: 8-5
- Head Coach: Kilani Sitake (56-34, 8th year at BYU)
- Offensive coordinator: Aaron Roderick
- Defensive coordinator: Jay Hill
- Returning starters: 15 (8 offense, 7 defense)
- 2023 recruiting rank: 66th nationally
- 2023 transfer rank: 21st nationally
2022 Season Recap
Last year was a disappointment of sorts for head coach Kilani Sitake and BYU. The Cougars climbed as high as 12th in the AP Poll thanks to a 4-1 start, but they lost four straight games in October and ultimately settled for a New Mexico Bowl berth and an 8-5 final record.
Offense wasn't the issue – BYU produced the 16th-most efficient offense in the country. But their defense was atrocious, finishing 114th in points per drive allowed and only holding opponents to under 21 points once (never under 20).
Only 60% of their roster production from a season ago returns. The Cougars must replace their leading passer, top three leading rushers, leading receiver, and best offensive lineman.
2023 Season Outlook
BYU looked to the transfer portal to address its biggest vacancies. They brought on former USC and Pitt quarterback Kedon Slovis and UNLV's Aidan Robbins, a 1,000-yard rusher from 2022.
They also predictably replaced their defensive coordinator, hiring on Weber State head coach Jay Hill from the FCS ranks. Hill brings along Eddie Heckard, an FCS All-American corner who played for Weber State. The Cougars also raided nearby schools like Utah and Boise State to bolster up their offensive and defensive line.
Slovis brings a different play style to the table than what BYU had in either Wilson or Hall. He's a much less athletic quarterback who played serviceably for Pitt, but ultimately failed to impress that much. Granted, he played in a system unfriendly to gaudy quarterback numbers – something he'll enjoy much more in Provo than in Pittsburgh.
Someone from the receiving corps must replace the go-to option that was Puka Nacua. Chase Roberts was promising last year coming off a knee injury, and Keanu Hill led the team in touchdown receptions. But it appears that rushing will again headline BYU's offense on the back of Robbins.
Things couldn't get much worse for the Cougars defense in 2022. Or, could they?
Last year, they played just five Power Five teams (Baylor, Arkansas, Oregon, Notre Dame, and Stanford), two of which ranked outside the top 50 nationally in scoring. This year, they handle nine – eight Big 12 members and Arkansas. They handle the Razorbacks on the road, as well as TCU, Texas, and Oklahoma State.
While seven starters do return on their stop unit, it's hard to imagine that they take a huge step forward thanks to a more difficult schedule than last year.
The Case For BYU In 2023
The defense couldn't get much worse in 2022 and they still managed to win eight games. Two of their losses were by one score and an extra stop from their defense could have helped BYU to their third straight 10-win season.
Thanks to a sound run game, Slovis being the quarterback doesn't hold the Cougars back all that much. But in order for the ground game to succeed, the offensive line will need to replace both guard positions with strong performances.
The receiving group also needs to take a step forward, be it Roberts, Hill, or sophomore Kody Epps (or someone else).
There's at least six winnable games on BYU's schedule, although many of those are winnable if the cards land the right way.
The Case Against BYU In 2023
To be fully transparent, I expect a difficult year in store for BYU. I don't foresee their defense turning it around into a top-30 unit overnight (or even top-65), although I do like the Jay Hill hire quite a bit. Right now, it's a talent issue on that side of the ball.
BYU's schedule gets markedly more difficult – no more scheduling six Group of Five schools and an FCS one. The road tilt is tough and their trip to Morgantown to take on West Virginia cannot be overlooked as a victory (although I would deem that "winnable").
I don't trust Slovis as a quarterback. He's not nearly the individual playmaker that Wilson or Hall were, both of which bailed BYU out of some sticky spots. It'll be very difficult for BYU to repeat their offensive performance against improved defenses in the Big 12, as well. Four of their wins came when the defense allowed 26 or more points and that's difficult to assume will repeat against defenses like Iowa State and Cincinnati.
This year, I project just 4.9 wins for BYU. They play the 22nd-most difficult schedule nationally and overall lack the roster talent needed to win 7-8 games in the Big 12.
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