Big 12 Football Preview: Cincinnati Bearcats

Cincinnati comes to the Big 12 for the 2023 college football season. How will the Bearcats fare following massive turnover in the program?

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The biggest conference realignment since 2013 began July 1. The Big 12 brings in four new members – BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF – beginning with the 2023 college football season. The Cincinnati Bearcats perhaps have had the highest of highs under prolific coach Luke Fickell, becoming the first Group of Five team ever to make the College Football Playoff in 2021. However, Fickell and the entire coaching staff are now gone.

Cincinnati always felt like the team that was left behind in 2013. They were a competitive member of the Big East, playing with big boys like Louisville (ACC), West Virginia (Big 12), and Pitt (ACC). However, they settled for the American, where they suffered just two losing seasons between 2013-22.

Please welcome to the stage, the Cincinnati Bearcats.

For the remainder of July, I'll be previewing each Big 12 member for the upcoming 2023 college football season. Agree (or disagree) with the assessment? Let me know on Twitter @roadtocfb.

Cincinnati Big 12 Member Profile

• Previous: American
• 2022 record: 9-4 (6-2 AAC)
• Head Coach: Scott Satterfield (1st year)
• Offensive coordinator: Brad Glenn (1st year)
• Defensive coordinator: Bryan Brown (1st year)
• Returning starters: 9 (3 offense, 6 defense)
• 2023 recruiting rank: 14th in Big 12
• 2023 transfer rank: 10th in Big 12

2022 Season Recap

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Cincinnati lost multiple prolific defenders, particularly in the secondary, and their star QB to the NFL following their dream CFP run. Talent did return, namely linebacker Ivan Pace Jr. and receiver Tyler Scott, but the Bearcats were unable to replicate the heights of 2021. They beat all the teams they were supposed to, but lost to their three toughest opponents prior to the bowl game.

Cincinnati was unable to run the football for most of the season and struggled to find top-end production at quarterback. They waffled between Ben Bryant and Evan Prater for the preseason, ultimately settling on Bryant. While he played admirably, Cincinnati lost games because of their offense, never topping 24 points in a loss.

Fickell exited for Wisconsin ahead of Cincinnati's bowl game, leading to a cascade of transfers out and de-commitments. Pace and Scott headed to the NFL and just seven teams return fewer production than them this coming season. 

2023 Season Outlook

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Scott Satterfield headed to Cincinnati, leaving Louisville to do so. Despite a successful 2022 season, Satterfield's stay was wearing thin and his move to Cincinnati was met with a resounding, "meh." He brought along with him Bryan Brown to coach the defense and hired on Brad Glenn from Virginia Tech. Glenn had little to work with in terms of talent in Blackburg (where he worked as the QB coach), but the Hokies' offense ranked 119th in points per drive.

While no one aside from Jim Harbaugh or Nick Saban could have amply replaced Fickell in the eyes of Bearcat faithful, the coaching hires leave a lot to be desired.

Former Florida and Arizona State QB Emory Jones transferred in to assume a vacant starting spot. Prater – who was recruited as a blue chip QB – will move to receiver this coming season to help fill a green room. No receiver with five or more receptions from 2022 returns in 2023. They also added Florida transfer Xzavier Henderson, Washington State's Donovan Ollie, and Louisville's Dee Wiggins to add experienced depth to what is the most concerning unit on the team.

Two starters along the offensive line return, namely center Gavin Herhardt, and Cincy added at least two potential starters in the portal.

Defensively, a lot of continuity returns along the defensive front, which should be the strength of this team. Dontay Corleone received preseason All-Big 12 honors as well as All America nods from Phil Steele and Athlon Sports.

However, they'll be completely rebuilding the linebacking corps, which vacates 137 tackles and 21.5 TFLs and sacks combined just from Pace alone. Daniel Grzesiak was a good addition from Utah State and projects to be an impact player this season.

Cincy lucked out with their in-league schedule, avoiding Texas, Kansas State, and TCU. They also handle Oklahoma, Baylor, and UCF at home, although Baylor enters the game with a rest advantage. In the non-conference, the Bearcats travel to Pitt, and host Miami (OH) and Eastern Kentucky. Overall, their schedule ranks as the third-easiest in the Big 12.

The Case For Cincinnati In 2023

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The best case for Cincinnati this year is their schedule draw. They rise a lot of unproven talent and figure to take a step back offensively with a more difficult conference. But with only a handful of really tough games, the Bearcats can – and should – be in contention to play in a bowl game this season.

Jones can be a playmaker at QB and adding Henderson, Wiggins, and other depth pieces should give this offense some pop. However, they couldn't run the football last year and don't return or add many pieces that would give me confidence that changes this year. Corey Kiner returns as the leading rusher with 362 yards and five touchdowns from last season. It was the offensive line, though, that couldn't get a push up front.

But the offense won't be asked to carry too much of the load. A strong defensive line – one that Athlon Sports ranks second in the Big 12 and Phil Steele, third – should provide a solid foundation for what should be another good defense.

I personally project Cincinnati for 6.3 wins this season, enough for a bowl bid.

The Case Against Cincinnati In 2023

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In my personal opinion (one shared by a pretty wide majority of the college football landscape), Satterfield was a disappointing hire. He was on his way out at Louisville and scrammed before they could replace him – which they ultimately did with former QB Jeff Brohm of Purdue.

Outside of the defensive line, there's not a ton of talent on this roster. As mentioned, it takes some creativity to find confidence in the running game improving and I don't think the receiving corps is dynamic enough for Cincinnati to be able to abandon the run game. In the AAC, the defense could more than make up for offensive inefficiencies. In the Big 12, that formula just won't work.

That's not to say that Cincinnati will be a disaster. But this is a rebuilding year and could be one of Cincy's toughest finishes in quite some time. 

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