Big 12 Football Preview: Houston Cougars

How do Dana Holgorsen and the Houston Cougars shape up in their first year in the Big 12 Conference?

The Houston Cougars come into the Big 12 shorthanded. They lost their most prolific QB-WR duo in history to the NFL and have a lot of talent gaps at critical positions. But Houston lies smack in the middle of the heart of the Big 12. Their identity fits right in with the other teams, and they have a hotbed of recruits in their own backyard. Dana Holgorsen and company should be set up well in the long term.

Houston brings a rich history of success on the basketball court, but also their fair share of successes on the gridiron. In 2021, they won 12 games; last year, eight. It's a program that's put high-level players in the NFL recently. Now, they come to compete with in-state rivals like TCU and Baylor.

Please welcome to the stage, the Houston Cougars.

For the remainder of July, I'll be previewing each Big 12 member for the upcoming 2023 college football season. Agree (or disagree) with the assessment? Let me know on Twitter @roadtocfb.

Houston Big 12 Member Profile

• Previous: American
• 2022 record: 8-5 (5-3 AAC)
• Head Coach: Dana Holgorsen (5th year)
• Offensive coordinator: Dana Holgorsen (1st year)
• Defensive coordinator: Doug Belk (5th year)
• Returning starters: 12 (5 offense, 7 defense)
• 2023 recruiting rank: 11th in Big 12
• 2023 transfer rank: 8th in Big 12

2022 Season Recap

© Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

It's a testament to where Houston is as a football program for an 8-5 finish to be largely considered a disappointment. The Cougs came off a 12-2 year in which they upset Auburn in the Birmingham Bowl, returning one of the country's most lethal QB-WR duo in Clayton Tune and Tank Dell.

The offensive lived up to the hype, finishing 13th nationally in scoring. But the defense – coming off a top-20 year in 2021 – was atrocious. They plummeted from 17th to 102nd (!!!) in points per drive allowed. To succinctly summarize just how bad this defense was, Houston scored a season-high 63 points against SMU... and lost.

The defense cost Houston games. They allowed 36.3 points per game in losses removing that outlier 77-point outing. And now, they move up a league.

2023 Season Outlook

© Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Tune and Dell both depart for the NFL, taking with them 12,000 career passing yards, 3,100 career receiving yards, and 151 career touchdowns. Also gone is star running back Alton McCaskill, who transferred to Colorado after missing last year with an injury. Houston's offensive coordinator, Shannon Dawson, left for Miami, and instead, Holgorsen will assume the play calling duties. It's a tough transition from one of the better scoring units over the past few seasons.

To fill some of those holes, the Cougars landed Texas Tech QB Donovan Smith and West Virginia RB Tony Mathis in the transfer portal. Smith works with Matthew Golden, a rising true sophomore who showed flashes of being excellent and leads a young receiving corps. Of the top six receivers on the depth chart, five are sophomores or younger. True freshman Mikal Harrison-Pilot is a highly touted recruit who could make an impact this season.

The offensive line is the opposite story. They return two starters, and every projected starter plus three rotators are juniors or older. Tackle Patrick Paul is an all-conference caliber player, although no UH players were named to the preseason All-Big 12 team.

But what did Houston do to better themselves on defense? Although seven starters return, eight of their nine top tacklers depart (including all of the top five).

The defensive front is the strength to this team. Phil Steele ranks the Cougars DL third best in the Big 12 this coming season. However, the linebacking corps could be one of the worst in the conference along with the secondary. Houston did add multiple linebackers in the portal, namely Texas A&M's Ish Smith, but there's not one disruptor that stands out among the group.

In a Big 12 with ample quarterback talent, it's the lack of star power in the secondary that's of the most concern. When Houston had lockdown corners (see: 2021), they were great. When they don't (see: 2022), they gave up chunks of yards through the air.

The Cougars play the 55th toughest schedule in the nation, which is the easiest in the Big 12. They don't venture outside the state of Texas until Halloween (at Kansas State, Oct. 28), and two of their non-conference matchups include Rice and Sam Houston State.

While Houston doesn't return a ton of talent, their schedule paves a direct route to bowl eligibility. I project 6.4 wins for Houston this year.

The Case For Houston In 2023

© Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

Schedule, schedule, schedule. Houston may finish with enough wins to make a bowl game in 2023, yet finish near the bottom of the Big 12. Smith is a veteran QB capable of leading an offense to some decent scoring numbers, and Mathis was a very solid pickup in the transfer portal. However, it'll take some over-performing from the offensive line – which could be one of the worst in the Big 12 – to exceed .500.

The case for Houston this season isn't a conference championship run. It's not even a high-level bowl game. A success for the Cougs this year should be as simple as being competitive in games and fighting for a bowl spot.

If either, or both, of those two things don't come to fruition, then Holgorsen might be finding a new place after the season.

The Case Against Houston In 2023

© Matt Pendleton-USA TODAY Sports

Holgorsen has done a good job with Houston. In his first year, they went just 4-8. A COVID-marred year saw them go 3-5. Then he had the 12-2 season in 2021 and followed it up with eight more wins. As far as coaching jobs go, there's far worse than Holgorsen in Houston.

Despite his experience in the Big 12 (previous stop with West Virginia), Holgorsen can only make up so much talent deficiency. Outside of receiver and defensive line, Houston ranks as among the lowest in nearly every unit category this coming year, per Phil Steele and Athlon Sports. Despite a fine schedule lay, a 4- or 5-win season may be inbound.

Longterm, I believe Houston is the best-positioned of the four newcomers to the Big 12. They exist in the middle of one of the hottest recruiting hotbeds in the nation and now play big-time football to entice those local kids to play for the Cougs. It's possible that their move to the Big 12 awoke a sleeping recruiting giant.

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