Big 12 Football Preview: Iowa State Cyclones
Frustration ran aplenty in Ames last season. Iowa State missed prime opportunity after prime opportunity to win games, ultimately being let down by a plodding offense and catastrophic special teams unit. Matt Campbell & Co. experienced their first losing season since 2016 and that forced his hand to make changes to the coaching staff.
Despite the colossal disappointment that was 2022, Iowa State fought. It took until Week 13 for the team to finally cave, despite sitting 4-7 and well out of bowl eligibility. They were a combined 11 points from winning eight games and went just 1-6 in one-score games.
But the program is well-managed and Campbell is a three-time Big 12 Coach of the Year. Are calmer waters in store for 2023? Let's take a look at the Iowa State Cyclones.
For the remainder of July, I'll be previewing each Big 12 member for the upcoming 2023 college football season. Agree (or disagree) with the assessment? Let me know on Twitter @roadtocfb.
Iowa State Cyclones Rundown
- 2022 Record: 4-8 (1-8 Big 12)
- Head coach: Matt Campbell (8th season)
- Offensive coordinator: Nate Steelechasse (1st season)
- Defensive coordinator: Jon Heacock (8th season)
- Returning starters: 15 (9 offense, 6 defense)
- 2023 recruiting rank: 7th in Big 12
- 2023 transfer rank: Last in Big 12
Looking Back To 2022
It's not easy to replace the foundational core of a football team. Iowa State lost their leading passer and rusher to the NFL and were thrown to the wolves with a road slate that featured Iowa, Texas, Oklahoma State, and TCU. While regression was predictable, the Cyclones fell flat to a 4-8 finish.
The defense held their end of the bargain, allowing just one opponent to score more than 30 points in the first 12 weeks of play. Seven times, Iowa State allowed 14 or fewer points. Pass rusher Will McDonald was an eventual first-round NFL Draft pick, as well.
It was the offense that let Iowa State down; the Cyclones lost games with final scores of 14-11, 10-9, 20-14, and 14-10. While not the worst scoring team in their own state in 2022, Iowa State finished a paltry 113th in points per drive, down from 31st the season prior.
Iowa State Cyclones 2023 Season Outlook
Youth and inexperience plagued Iowa State last season, particularly along the offensive line. Blown assignments were a regular occurrence, and QB Hunter Dekkers was the 10th-most pressured QB in the country. This season, four starters on that unit return, three of which are now sophomores. Campbell and the Iowa State coaching staff have developed plenty of NFL talent on the offensive line, and this year's unit should be largely improved.
The improved line play is most beneficial to running backs Jirehl Brock and Cartevious Norton. Of their combined 755 yards, 694 of them (91%!!!) came either after contact or on breakaway runs (15+ yards). It was a true feast-or-famine for the Iowa State backfield. Norton eventually took over as Brock struggled with fumbles after being the primary rusher early in the season.
Dekkers passed for over 3,000 yards last season, but over a third of those yards went to now-NFL receiver Xavier Hutchinson. Jaylin Noel is the most likely to assume the No. 1 receiver spot, but the receiving room in general, lacks star power. Phil Steele ranks the Cyclones' receiving room 11th in the Big 12 and Athlon Sports, 12th.
It'll be difficult for Iowa State's offense to regress, but the second-toughest Big 12 schedule in store this year (8th nationally), don't expect that unit to return to a top-40 mark.
It'll be even more difficult for Iowa State's defense to improve on last season. Aside from a 62-point avalanche in the final game of the season against TCU, Iowa State allowed just 16.5 points per game, seventh-least nationally. They also have to replace McDonald along the defensive line.
However, four of five starters in the secondary and two of three linebackers return. The Cyclones' top two tacklers – Gerry Vaughn and Beau Freyler – shore up the center of the stop unit, and corner TJ Tampa (9 pass breakups) landed on the All-Big 12 preseason list.
In aggregate, Iowa State's schedule is exceedingly difficult. However, the cast of opposing offenses could be worse. The Cyclones play their annual rivalry with Iowa – who was worse offensively last year – plus handle Oklahoma State, Cincinnati, and BYU, all teams going through major offensive shifts. Granted, they play all of Kansas State, Oklahoma, TCU, and Texas, the top four projected teams in the conference; Iowa State also plays a game at Ohio, who rosters a prolific quarterback.
It'll be a difficult road to bowl eligibility for Iowa State. Campbell is in good graces with the fans and athletic department, but back-to-back losing seasons could wear those graces thin quickly.
The Case For Iowa State In 2023
Expectations really need to be tempered for 2023, and "the case for" doesn't call for a conference championship. But Iowa State really should improve year over year.
The offensive line and ability of the offense as a whole to stay healthy was a major issue for the Cyclones last year. Gaps on the offensive line – be it from blown assignments or injury – kept the running game in check. Without a strong run game, Iowa State was unable to score, particularly in the red zone; they had the third-worst red zone scoring percentage nationally and worst in the Big 12.
Despite a more difficult schedule, history says some of those numbers regress to the mean. Dekkers is a fine quarterback, if not about league average. A good coaching staff (which Iowa State has), good enough QB, and strong defense goes a long way in the college ranks.
Overall, Iowa State should improve slightly, but they'll be fighting for bowl eligibility.
The Case Against Iowa State In 2023
There's a world that exists where Iowa State's numbers don't regress to the mean. Their kicker, rising sophomore Jace Gilbert, was dreadful, making just 12/20 field goal attempts, many of which were missed in the red zone. He returns this year with a year of experience under his belt, but that doesn't necessarily equate to newfound confidence or an improved number. Just six teams missed a higher rate of field goals than Iowa State last year (56% as a team).
The group of skill positions isn't in a better position this year than last. Despite rostering one of the best receivers in the nation, Dekkers managed just a 19-14 TD-to-interception ratio. Noel doesn't boast much better numbers, having a lower yards per reception mark (9.5) than Hutchinson and a much higher drop rate (10.4%!).
Tie in that pessimism with one of the most difficult schedules nationally, and Iowa State feels more like they're bound to repeat 4-8 than contend for the top third of the conference.
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