Big 12 Football Preview: Kansas Jayhawks

For the first time in 15 years, Kansas was an exciting product to watch last year. But can Jalon Daniels and the Jayhawks repeat that performance this year?

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In Year 2, Lance Leipold lifted Kansas football to heights not seen since 2008. The Jayhawks made a bowl game and even hit the AP Poll after a 5-0 start. Thanks to an exciting offense led by a dynamic quarterback, Kansas quickly stole the hearts of college football fans everywhere. Even their Liberty Bowl loss to Arkansas produced fireworks that captivated audiences.

Leipold and his staff are widely well regarded among both media and coaching circles. KU is taking their football program more seriously than they have in over a decade. But was 2022 a flash in the pan? A fluke? Or will we see sustained success in Lawrence, if only Kansas' own definition of success?

For the remainder of July, I'll be previewing each Big 12 member for the upcoming 2023 college football season. Agree (or disagree) with the assessment? Let me know on Twitter @roadtocfb.

Kansas Jayhawks Rundown

• 2022 Record: 6-7 (3-6 Big 12)
• Head coach: Lance Leipold (3rd season)
• Offensive coordinator: Andy Kotelnicki (3rd season)
• Defensive coordinator: Brian Borland (3rd season)
• Returning starters: 17 (10 offense, 7 defense)
• 2023 recruiting rank: 13th in Big 12
• 2023 transfer rank: 11th in Big 12

Looking Back To 2022

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Heading into October, Kansas was riding high on win after win. They beat Houston who, at the time, was thought to be a strong team, and also upended Duke, who would go on to win nine games. The Jayhawks played an uptempo style of football that sacrificed defensive fortitude in exchange for a 3-0 record in one-score or overtime games for the first month.

But, at 5-0, ranked, and hosting College GameDay, Kansas began their plummet back to reality. From October 1 on, they mustered just one win (over an imploding Oklahoma State team) and went 0-3 in one-score games. Quarterback Jalon Daniels missed a chunk of the season with an injury sustained against TCU and the floodgates broke defensively. In their final four games, the Jayhawks didn't hold an opponent under 43 points.

The story was fun and the feat of taking Kansas to a bowl game should not be understated. Leipold has ushered in a new era of Kansas football.

Kansas Jayhawks 2023 Season Outlook

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I won't hand-wave away the 2022 season, but Kansas was very fortunate to make a bowl game. The Jayhawks nearly snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, but managed to hang on in overtime to beat West Virginia (a team that would finish 5-7). Their victory over Houston didn't hold up in the longterm as Houston disappointed at 7-5. However, they nearly beat TCU at home and gave Oklahoma all they could handle the following week.

Daniels returns alongside almost every starter on offense. Their top five rushers return, namely running back Devin Neal, who rushed for over 1,000 yards last season. Every receiver with at least eight receptions also returns, as do five of the Jayhawks' top six tacklers.

Alongside Daniels is capable backup Jason Bean, who held his own in Daniels' absence last year. There's no reason to believe that Kansas won't hit the offensive heights they did last year again this year.

That leads us to the defense. Seven starters return, including all five in the secondary. Cobee Bryant leads that unit, landing on the All-Big 12 preseason list. Aside from Bryant, though, KU could have done without many starters coming back. The stop unit allowed the 11th-most yards per play (6.3) and the sixth-most points per drive nationally.

The defensive line was a real liability in 2022. The pass rush was almost nonexistent and the team couldn't defend the run. They ranked in the bottom 30 in run defense, per PFF, and generated a bottom-20 sack rate. All four rising starters on the defensive line are new and two are sophomores.

Cohesion can help Kansas take a step in the right direction defensively. But the odds of the Jayhawks climbing from 127th in scoring to a top-half team is unlikely. Phil Steele still projects them to allow the most points per game in the Big 12.

Kansas plays four of the projected top five teams in the Big 12, avoiding only TCU. They handle Illinois on the non-conference slate at home – which is a big boost for a team with high turnover – but plays a strange road game at Nevada (not to be overlooked). After their October 21 bye, the Jayhawks play Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Kansas State.

The schedule draw could have been tougher, but there's few breaks on it.

The Case For Kansas In 2023

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Kansas begins the year with three exceedingly winnable games in their first four and the toughest game in that span (Illinois) is handled at home. Going 3-1 or 4-0 is imperative in this stretch, as the schedule gets markedly more difficult from there.

The Jayhawks don't face a rest disadvantage once this season and head into their Oklahoma game both at home and off a bye week. A road tilt of Nevada, Texas, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, and Cincinnati sure could be worse.

Daniels is beyond capable, perhaps a top-three QB in the Big 12, and it's hard not to trust the coaching staff. The Jayhawks scored their way to bowl eligibility in 2022 and that again could be the case in 2023.

The Case Against Kansas In 2023

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While Kansas was a fun story to begin last season, the team was closer to their end-of-year form than the year they began it with. The two biggest red flags for this team were the non-existent pass rush (which was not fixed this offseason) and horrific special teams (ranked in the bottom 12). Their 0-3 record in close games to close the year made for exciting TV, but was a massive issue, particularly in the Liberty Bowl.

The four-game stretch to start the year is exceedingly winnable for teams that are better put together than Kansas. Ultimately, I don't trust them to go better than 2-2 in that stretch (Missouri State, Illinois, at Nevada, BYU). This season, I rank Kansas as my lowest-rated Big 12 team.

Four wins this season would still be an improvement on the depths to which Kansas football has fallen in the past two decades. Now that expectations are set (Athlon Sports calls for a 7-5 finish, Phil Steele projects a bowl game), let's see how this team really pans out.

If I had to guess, they really benefitted from a fast and lucky start to 2022.

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