Big 12 Football Preview: Kansas State Wildcats
For those paying close attention to the landscape of the Big 12, Kansas State's rise last year wasn't too surprising. The magnitude of their rise, however, raised eyebrows as the Wildcats handed TCU their lone conference loss to win the Big 12 championship. Chris Klieman expertly navigated the season and got the absolute most out of his talented roster.
There are big shoes to fill (some literally, some figuratively) in 2023. But Kansas State returns plenty of talent, including rising star QB Will Howard. In a new-look Big 12, the Wildcats hope to assert their place moving forward. A repeat won't be easy, but it's not out of the cards.
For the remainder of July, I'll be previewing each Big 12 member for the upcoming 2023 college football season. Agree (or disagree) with the assessment? Let me know on Twitter @roadtocfb.
Kansas State Wildcats Rundown
- 2022 Record: 10-4 (7-2 Big 12)
- Head coach: Chris Klieman (5th season)
- Offensive coordinator: Collin Klein (2nd+ season)
- Defensive coordinator: Joe Klanderman (5th season)
- Returning starters: 13 (8 offense, 5 defense)
- 2023 recruiting rank: 5th in Big 12
- 2023 transfer rank: 13th in Big 12
Looking Back To 2022
In Week 3, it appeared Kansas State was in trouble. As a 14-point home favorite, the Wildcats were shocked by Tulane, who was coming off a 2-10 year. It turns out, that home loss translated pretty well, as Tulane would go on to win the Cotton Bowl and finish ranked inside the top 10 nationally. The following week, Kansas State upset Oklahoma as a 13.5-point underdog.
Howard filled in for Adrian Martinez after Martinez suffered an injury against TCU. The rising redshirt sophomore was handed the reigns and then never looked back. Beyond that regular season loss at TCU, Howard led K-State to five straight victories – including the Big 12 Championship Game – turning the ball over just once and scoring 15 total touchdowns.
Klieman led the Wildcats to their first-ever Sugar Bowl berth and just their eighth New Year's Six berth in program history. There, they met the buzzsaw that was Alabama, but that 45-20 loss hardly put a wet blanket on the season.
Kansas State Wildcats 2023 Season Outlook
As mentioned, there are some serious gaps that need to be filled this year. Pass rusher Felix Anudike-Uzomah (8.5 sacks) was drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft, and prolific running back Deuce Vaughn, and both starting corners left for the NFL. Just 49% of production on defense returns from a unit that ranked inside the top 30 in points per drive allowed.
Safety Kobe Savage does return, coming off second-team All-Big 12 honors last year; he was also named to the preseason All-Big 12 team. K-State looked to the portal to find a complement to Savage by bringing in North Dakota State's Marques Sigle. However, replacing three rock-solid starters in the secondary points to likely regression from that unit, if only slightly.
The biggest shoes to fill on the team, perhaps, are the physically smallest ones. In his decorated three years at Kansas State, Vaughn rushed for over 3,000 yards (1,558 last year) and combined for 43 touchdowns from scrimmage. Though just 5-foot-5, the shifty, do-it-all back was the lifeblood of the Wildcat offense.
Kansas State looked to the portal for help here, too. They landed talented Florida State back Treshaun Ward, who earned an All-ACC honorable mention last season. Iowa receiver Keegan Johnson heads to Manhattan and projects to start this coming season.
The centerpiece of this whole team isn't Howard – it's the five guys playing in front of him. Kansas State fixes to start one of the best offensive lines in the nation, led by Cooper Beebe. Beebe and Christian Duffie project to be high NFL Draft picks, with the former potentially going in Round 1. The unit returns all five starters and is ranked No. 11 nationally, per Phil Steele.
The road to 10 wins won't be easy for K-State. They play the 14th-most difficult schedule in the country and have a road slate comprised of Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Texas, and rival Kansas.
The Case For Kansas State In 2023
You don't have to squint hard to find eight wins on this schedule. With one of the top offensive lines, a talented and now experienced quarterback, and sound coaching, Kansas State should be right in the mix for another Big 12 Championship Game appearance. Unlike preceding champions, the Wildcats return a bulk of the talent that brought them to Arlington.
It's unlikely Kansas State repeats their defensive performance from last year, given the absence of gamewrecker Anudike-Uzomah and top corner Julius Brents. But their regression should only be slight, as opposed to a complete drop off.
Despite some intriguing players like Johnson and returning starter Phillip Brooks, the receiving corps leaves a lot to be desired. Phil Steele ranks this unit 11th in the Big 12 and Athlon Sports, eighth. But Howard was able to do more with less last season, evenly spreading receptions and touchdowns out to many players.
I project 7.7 wins for Kansas State, good enough for fourth in the Big 12. However, the ceiling for 10+ wins is very much still on the table.
The Case Against Kansas State In 2023
While Kansas State doesn't quite fit the bill, we've seen plenty of flash-in-the-pan Big 12 champions of late. Baylor in 2021 fell off to 6-7 the following year. Iowa State made it to Arlington in 2020 and finished 7-6 the following year. Texas in 2018 dropped to 8-5 in 2019. There's a track record of teams that peak at just the right time.
Can Howard really repeat his late-season efficiency? Perhaps, but asking to build upon 15 touchdowns against just four interceptions is essentially asking for Heisman-contending numbers. Without top receiver Malik Knowels, trusty Kade Warner, and dynamic Vaughn, Howard is going to have to find reliable outlets quickly.
The bulk of K-State's production returns, but its top-end talent that helped push them to a Big 12 title does not. With a difficult schedule, particularly on the road, Kansas State will have to have more than a few bounces fall their way to win 10 games again.
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