Big 12 Football Preview: Oklahoma Sooners

Oklahoma was an unmitigated disaster in 2022 in their first year under Brent Venables. Can the Sooners turn things around in 2023?

Few teams underwhelmed last season more than the Oklahoma Sooners. Lincoln Riley became the first coach to leave Oklahoma for another college job since 1946, and his departure gutted the program. They turned in their first losing season in 25 years and were flat out embarrassed in their biggest game of the year against Texas.

In their final year in the Big 12, the Sooners need to get some momentum going. Life won't be easier in the SEC, and their best chance at a conference title in the near future comes in 2023. Let's dive into Oklahoma's season outlook.

For the remainder of July, I'll be previewing each Big 12 member for the upcoming 2023 college football season. Agree (or disagree) with the assessment? Let me know on Twitter @roadtocfb.

Oklahoma Sooners Rundown

• 2022 Record: 6-7 (3-6 Big 12)
• Head coach: Brent Venables (2nd season)
• Offensive coordinator: Jeff Lebby (2nd season)
• Defensive coordinator: Ted Roof (2nd season)
• Returning starters: 13 (7 offense, 6 defense)
• 2023 recruiting rank: 2nd in Big 12
• 2023 transfer rank: 1st in Big 12

Looking Back To 2022

© BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK

In their first year under Brent Venables, the Oklahoma Sooners turned in their worst season since 1998. Despite hiring one of the top defensive coordinators of the past couple of decades, Oklahoma's defense fell flat on its face, the culmination of which resulted in a 49-0 thrashing at the hands of Texas – their worst rivalry loss ever.

The team did improve after that, but went 0-4 in one-score games to close out the year; on the year, they went 0-5 in one-score games.

The decline was excusable, though, as the departure of Lincoln Riley left the cupboard bare in Norman. For the first time in many decades, Oklahoma just didn't have the talent to win games. To the relief of many Sooners fans, 2022 is in the books. And to assume Oklahoma is a perennial 6-6 team now is dangerous.

Oklahoma Sooners 2023 Season Outlook

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Prolific quarterback Dillon Gabriel returns to Oklahoma after adding another 3,100 yards to his storied career. In three full and healthy seasons at UCF and Oklahoma, Gabriel has accumulated over 11,000 passing yards and 110 total touchdowns. However, he loses his top two receivers – including NFL Draft choice Marvin Mims – and 1,3000-rusher Eric Gray.

The backfield will be fine. Sophomore Jovantae Barnes, junior Marcus Major, and RS freshman Gavin Sawchuk make up one of the better backfields in the conference, one Phil Steele ranks tied for first with Texas. Someone in the receiving room needs to step to the forefront, as the ambiguous group managed 75 receptions for nearly 800 yards combined last season. They landed Michigan transfer Andrel Anthony to complement the returning Jalil Farooq and Drake Stoops.

Four starters on the offensive line return – including two transfers in Caleb Shaffer (Miami, OH) and Walter Rouse (Stanford) – a unit that fixes to be excellent. Phil Steele ranks the group sixth nationally (second in the Big 12).

Of course, this team has to improve defensively. They ranked 74th in points per drive allowed last year and gave up 40+ points in five games, including four straight from Weeks 4-7 ahead of their bye.

To address this, Oklahoma added Indiana linebacker Dasan McCullough (247Sports' second-ranked LB transfer), Oklahoma State pass rusher Trace Ford, and three other defensive linemen that seriously bolster the depth up front. Linebacker Danny Stutsman headlines the six returning starters, who had 126 tackles last season. Their defensive secondary ranks third in the conference, per Phil Steele, and fourth, per Athlon Sports.

Aside from defense, the Sooners need a rapid improvement on special teams. Kicker Zach Schmit converted on just 12/18 field goals.

Oklahoma plays the second-easiest schedule in the Big 12 (52nd nationally), handling Arkansas State, SMU, and Tulsa outside of league play. They avoid Kansas State and Texas Tech in Big 12 play and host TCU.

The Case For Oklahoma In 2023

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It would be foolish to assume Oklahoma repeats its performance on defense this year. The roster gets a full offseason to absorb the Venables system, and they did well, adding talent and depth to that side of the ball. They play six offenses that ranked inside the top 25 in points per drive from a season ago, but only two of them return their QB.

The team has had 18 months to remove themselves from the Riley departure, and that matters. Luckily, they get the scheduling breaks necessary to build some momentum heading into their life-post Big 12.

The biggest factor, though, is that 0-5 mark in one-score games. On the surface, that looks like a loser stat. However, a couple bounces here and there turn 0-5 into 2-3, and all of a sudden, Oklahoma is 8-5 rather than 6-7. 89% of teams that post a -4 or greater differential in close games improve their record the next season (ex. 1-5, 0-4, etc.).

Phil Steele ranks Oklahoma as his No. 2 most improved team going into 2023, and I project the Sooners for 9.7 wins on average.

The Case Against Oklahoma In 2023

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While the defense, in theory, should improve, the personnel on that side of the ball still isn't quite there. It's much better, but against six top-25 scoring offenses from last year, Oklahoma's stop unit is going to have its hands full. They were horrendous against the run, and their play on the field was much worse than postseason numbers would indicate.

There's a chance they don't take a leap forward from the 70s to the top-40 in scoring per drive.

In the long term, Oklahoma is set up. They signed five-star QB Jackson Arnold to succeed Gabriel (likely after this season), and two additional five-stars – pass rusher Adepoju Adebawore and safety Peyton Bowen. Their 2023 recruiting class ranked fourth in the country.

So, perhaps Oklahoma is preparing for life in the SEC. After all, they're going to get every Big 12 team's best shot this coming season, particularly rival Oklahoma State. It's going to be a physical year for the Sooners, who should recover from last season. But it's not out of pocket to say their ceiling this year is 8-4.

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