Big 12 Football Preview: Oklahoma State Cowboys

Oklahoma State had a rollercoaster ride of a 2022 season. Are the winds of change blowing in Stillwater away from one of the most consistent programs in the Big 12?

Oklahoma State has been a beacon of consistency for over a decade. They hold one of the longest bowl streaks in the nation and have one of the longest-tenured coaches, too: Mike Gundy. But 2022 began a skew in the program – a shift in the cultural winds that beckons concern. All of a sudden, Oklahoma State wasn't a desirable spot for transfers or coaches.

It's not yet time to hit the panic button, but maybe one should be pulling it out of the drawer. Given the circumstances around the team, 2023 is a fulcrum year that will define the next era of Oklahoma State football.

For the remainder of July, I'll be previewing each Big 12 member for the upcoming 2023 college football season. Agree (or disagree) with the assessment? Let me know on Twitter @roadtocfb.

Oklahoma State Cowboys Rundown

• 2022 Record: 7-6 (4-5 Big 12)
• Head coach: Mike Gundy (19th season)
• Offensive coordinator: Kasey Dunn (13th season)
• Defensive coordinator: Bryan Nardo (1st season)
• Returning starters: 13 (7 offense, 6 defense)
• 2023 recruiting rank: 10th in Big 12
• 2023 transfer rank: 4th in Big 12

Looking Back To 2022

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Things were going well for Oklahoma State. They started the year 6-1, with their lone loss coming in double overtime to TCU, who was on track to a national runner-up finish. The Cowboys rebounded the next week and beat Texas, climbing up as high as No. 7 in the AP Poll during that stretch.

And then the wheels fell off.

They were obliterated 48-0 the next week at Kansas State, lost starting QB Spencer Sanders to injury for most of the remainder of the season and dropped four of their last five games. They lost to Kansas and West Virginia, never mustering more than 20 points along the way. Their 7-6 finish was just the third time since 2008 that the Pokes finished with fewer than eight wins.

For the first time in Gundy's career, things in Stillwater were very uncertain.

Oklahoma State Cowboys 2023 Season Outlook

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The plummet in the team didn't stop at the field and didn't end Week 13. Defensive coordinator Derek Mason left, and the Pokes lost four key contributors to transfer – All-Conference LB Mason Cobb, leading rusher Dominic Richardson, stud pass rusher Trace Ford, and starting QB Spencer Sanders.

Further, Oklahoma State inked its worst recruiting class in more than five seasons, finishing 54th nationally and 10th in the conference. Since 2019, they had never fallen under 40th.

Gundy did bring in some notable transfers like Texas State lineman Dalton Cooper and a pair of talented receivers in De'Zhaun Stribling (Washington State) and Arland Bruce (Iowa). Defensively, they added two of Tulsa's best players, as well. They hired Bryan Nardo to call the defense, a Division-II veteran from Gannon University.

But the biggest concern, perhaps, was the lack of landing an inspiring QB in either the portal or on the recruiting trail. With ample weapons, a big stage, and a history of high-flying offenses, Oklahoma State missed out on virtually all of the transfer talent. They landed journeyman Alan Bowman – the presumed starter – but he grades out as their lowest-rated transfer.

The temperature in Stillwater isn't ideal at the moment.

The corps on defense could certainly be worse. Despite losing eight of their 10 leading tacklers, Oklahoma State has names. Justin Wright, a transfer linebacker from Tulsa, should be a tackling machine. Linebacker Collin Oliver was named to the All-Big 12 preseason team. Their secondary should be one of the better units in the conference, as well.

But the offense has the potential to be dreadful. Receiver Brennan Presley was named a preseason all-conference selection, but the offensive line ranked outside the top 110 nationally last season in both run and pass blocking, and four of those guys return this year. Perhaps not as extreme, but Oklahoma State has shades of last year's Iowa State team.

Fortunately, they avoid Texas, TCU, and Baylor, giving the Pokes the fourth-easiest schedule in the Big 12. Their toughest games – Oklahoma and Kansas State – are handled at home.

The Case For Oklahoma State In 2023

© BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK

Once Gundy was able to get footing in the Oklahoma State program (his first three years, he went 14-19), he's had the Cowboys as one of the most consistently reliable teams in the Big 12. He's logged more 10-win seasons (7) than those with fewer than nine wins (5) since 2008. They've made five New Year's Six appearances, winning two of them.

Throughout 18 years, the program had its ebbs and flows, and Gundy orchestrated nothing but winning seasons; beyond his first year in Stillwater, he's never had a losing season, and their 17-year bowl streak is sixth-most in the nation. Even when things look bad for Oklahoma State, they manage to piece together winning seasons.

Such is the case in 2023, as the schedule falls advantageously for the Pokes. Despite the offense setting up to be a bottom-40 unit nationally, the defense is on the upswing. I project Oklahoma State for 7.6 wins this season, plenty good enough to extend that bowl game streak to 18 seasons.

The Case Against Oklahoma State In 2023

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It's a fallacy to blindly believe that something remains the same forever. To assume Oklahoma State will win seven or eight games just because, well, that's what they always do is a setup for failure. Sometimes, the floor falls out.

And to assume that the floor falls out after a single 7-6 season (mind you, just a year removed from a Big 12 Championship berth) would be an overreaction. But looking at the program as a whole, there are clear signs of decline – their falling ability to recruit, the inability to land a good starting QB in the portal, and a mass exodus of both transfers and coaches. It should be a concern and not overlooked.

To call this the beginning of the end for Gundy might be a stretch. After all, he's followed every 7-6 season up with an improvement the next season. But with a serious lack of offensive talent, this could be the first time he fails to improve on that mark.

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