Big 12 Football Preview: Texas Longhorns

Does Texas finally meet lofty expectations in their final year in the Big 12?

The Texas Longhorns have one more season as the big fish in a medium-sized pond before jumping ship to the SEC. They, too, may only have one more season for reasonable expectation to win the conference. Despite being the ultimate "off the bus" team, Texas hasn't won a Big 12 title since 2009, and they've run through four coaches since then.

2023 again sets up nicely for Steve Sarkisian. On paper, Texas is one of the most talented teams in the nation, hard stop. But can the two sides of the football come together and stack up wins? Or will the crushing weight of booster-influenced politics bury this team like they have the past decade-plus?

For the remainder of July, I'll be previewing each Big 12 member for the upcoming 2023 college football season. Agree (or disagree) with the assessment? Let me know on Twitter @roadtocfb.

Texas Longhorns Rundown

• 2022 Record: 8-5 (6-3 Big 12)
• Head coach: Steve Sarkisian (3rd season)
• Offensive coordinator: Kyle Flood (3rd season)
• Defensive coordinator: Pete Kwiatkowski (3rd season)
• Returning starters: 16 (10 offense, 6 defense)
• 2023 recruiting rank: 1st in Big 12 (3rd nationally)
• 2023 transfer rank: 11th in Big 12

Looking Back To 2022

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Texas was 18 points away from a perfect 12-0 season in 2022. Instead, they lost a controversial one-point game to Alabama, dropped an overtime game in Lubbock, dropped a stinker to Oklahoma State, and almost knocked off TCU. But "almost" doesn't count in football.

Instead, the Longhorns finished 8-4 before being mostly handled by Washington in their bowl game. They have plenty of names on the roster, but the offense and defense just couldn't come together to orchestrate enough wins to impress. Quinn Ewers missed games and visibly downgraded his play due to an injury sustained against Alabama. Ultimately, Texas never climbed higher than 18th in the AP Poll.

Bijan Robinson departed for the NFL after accumulating over 1,800 scrimmage yards and 20 touchdowns. So did talented No. 2 Rocshon Johnson and defensive leader DeMarvion Overshown. But for the most part, this same team returns.

Texas Longhorns 2023 Season Outlook

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All but one starter returns this season for Texas, and they have an extremely talented stable of running backs to fill that position, namely touted freshman CJ Baxter. Their depth and high-end talent at skill positions are downright ridiculous. Texas has two No. 1 recruits in their QB room – Ewers and Arch Manning – plus a bevy of five-stars at receiver and in the backfield.

The Longhorns have one of the top receiving rooms in the country, possibly the top room save for Ohio State. Existing star Xavier Worthy is complemented by veteran Jordan Whittington, deep threat Isaiah Neyor returning from injury, and top transfer A.D. Mitchell from Georgia. Mitchell is of particular interest, as he saw more targets in their Spring Game than any other receiver. Also, fold in JT Sanders, one of the nation's top tight ends.

The offensive line was built by the last few recruiting cycles and now finally boasts some experience. Tackle Kelvin Banks was named a freshman All-American by the FWAA, and Phil Steele ranks the unit fourth-best in the country.

When healthy, Ewers showed flashes of greatness. After his injury, he was much more cautious, which led to less confident throws and increased turnovers. He missed windows, didn't take opportunities to run, and ultimately cost Texas a lot of points. Should Ewers continue to play like he did down the stretch last year, perhaps we'll see Maalik Murphy, a star from their spring exhibition.

Defensively, Texas returns much less than the other side of the ball. Despite losing Overshown, they do return All-America candidate Jaylan Ford (last year's leading tackler) at linebacker. Freshman Anthony Hill, the No. 1 linebacker of the 2023 class, projects to be an impact starter Day 1.

Despite some inexperience on defense, Steele ranks Texas No. 1 in the Big 12 in every unit. Again, Texas being the most talented team is irrefutable this season.

What they do with it, however, is another discussion.

The Case For Texas In 2023

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At a certain point, talent has to win out. Whoever suits up at quarterback has an embarrassment of riches to work with and, so as long as they take care of the football, should score a ton of points. Aside from Alabama, Texas doesn't face a projected top-25 defense this season.

They play four of the projected bottom five Big 12 teams (Kansas, Houston, BYU, Iowa State) and only five true road games. Texas will be more talented than every opponent except for Alabama, oftentimes by a wide gap. Should the units click, Texas should be a 10+ win team.

The case for Texas is easy to make. The path to serious national success is clear. But one word stands above the rest when assessing Texas:

Should.

The Case Against Texas In 2023

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It's widely reported and publicly obvious that Texas' football program is marred by the pressures of outside forces. The most obvious example of that was the dismissal of Tom Herman, who had a .676 win percent after Year 1 and went 4-0 in bowl games. Since his departure, Texas is .500 and 0-1 in bowl games with a 5-7 year under Sarkisian.

With the implementation and growing scrutiny of NIL, the voice of the athletic booster has never been more powerful. At these large powers that prefer "brand" over results (see: Miami, Texas A&M), boosters have more of a say in the on-field product than Texas would like to admit.

So the sweeping case against Texas (other than the flawed "because they never do" argument) is that the noise is too much for players to play. The pressure forces incongruence and breaks continuity in the program, and Texas simply loses more games than they should.

Because a roster of this caliber should be able to contend with anyone – Georgia, Ohio State, or the likes. Should. 

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