Big 12 Football Preview: Texas Tech Red Raiders

The overall temperature of the Texas Tech football program is pretty positive. Can Joey McGuire build upon a successful 2022 campaign in Lubbock?

The secret's out: the Texas Tech Red Raiders are no longer a conference pushover. Joey McGuire and his new staff found success in Year 1, winning eight games for the first time since 2013. The program as a whole is on the rise – Tech is currently undergoing a $200M athletics campus renovation and they just inked their best recruiting class in five years.

But now that the secret's out, how do the Red Raiders handle expectations? Let's dive into their team landscape for 2023.

From mid-July to early August, I'll be previewing each Big 12 member for the upcoming 2023 college football season. Agree (or disagree) with the assessment? Let me know on Twitter @roadtocfb.

Texas Tech Red Raiders Rundown

• 2022 Record: 8-5 (5-4 Big 12)
• Head coach: Joey McGuire (2nd season)
• Offensive coordinator: Zach Kittley (2nd season)
• Defensive coordinator: Tim DeRuyter (2nd season)
• Returning starters: 17 (11 offense, 6 defense)
• 2023 recruiting rank: 4th in Big 12
• 2023 transfer rank: 12th in Big 12

Looking Back To 2022

© Aaron E. Martinez / USA TODAY NETWORK

The road to eight wins was pretty arduous as Tech played seven ranked opponents, including five straight from Week 2-6. They beat Texas and Oklahoma – a sweep never before accomplished by Tech – and notched their second straight bowl win over an SEC school from Mississippi. The friendly confines of Lubbock became a real home field advantage, as Texas Tech went 6-1 at Jones AT&T Stadium.

Tyree Wilson became their first top-10 NFL Draft pick since Patrick Mahomes and the highest-drafted Red Raider since 1964. And, despite all of the firsts, Tech returns 11 starters on offense and positions themselves to be the worst-kept secret in the Big 12.

There were a lot of "never befores" and "firsts" in McGuire's first season. 

Texas Tech Red Raiders 2023 Season Outlook

© Annie Rice/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK

In most cases, returning X-number of starters on a given side of the ball doesn't always mean X-number of starters from last year's team. But with Texas Tech, they have a hell of a lot of continuity from last year's team. Of the 11 returning starters on offense, 10 were in place last year, with the exception being Western Kentucky transfer Rusty Staats. Staats played for Zach Kittley in Bowling Green.

QB Tyler Shough returns for his fifth season. In four years with Tech and previously at Oregon, he never played in more than seven games, which he did last year, battling on and off injury. Behren Morton sits behind him, who played in nine games last season but only completed 58% of his passes at 6.6 yards per attempt.

Nine of ten receivers with at least 10 receptions return to the team, as does leading rusher Tahj Brooks. Kittley's system is excellent for offensive production and getting a wide number of players involved. Regardless of whether or not Tech has a murderer's row of skill players, they'll score points.

But that offense will be helped around a solid receiving corps. Preseason All-Big 12 selection Jerand Bradley leads the group, and Myles Price was an all-conference honorable mention. The unit is bolstered by Austin Peay transfer Deandre McCray, who has 1,888 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns in just 21 starts.

The absence of Tyree Wilson hurts Texas Tech's defense. However, three other starters return, and they added Steve Linton from Syracuse. While not one player on the front has a proven track record of being a disruptor, the overall defensive front should be solid enough. Jaylon Hutchings was named preseason All-Big 12 and will be the focal point of the front.

The back seven is experienced. All projected starters at linebacker and in the secondary are juniors or seniors with three transfers. However, a lot of production has to be replaced as five of the top six tacklers from a season ago depart.

The Case For Texas Tech In 2023

© Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

The overall temperature on Tech is pretty warm heading into 2023. They were picked fourth in the preseason media poll, ahead of TCU and Oklahoma State. Momentum from their dominant win over Ole Miss in the Texas Bowl appears to be bleeding over into the new season.

With so much returning this season, it's hard to find a world where Tech is a worse team than last year, at least in terms of talent. While Shough has yet to play a full healthy season, everyone is injury-prone until they aren't. He has a strong cast of receivers to throw to, and the offensive line should improve from a year ago, given their continuity.

There are a lot of backers of the Red Raiders this coming season. That optimism isn't unfounded, and Tech handles three of their toughest foes (Oregon, Kansas State, TCU) in Lubbock. Their experience on both sides of the ball should make them a sound team that won't cost themselves games.

As a possible favorite in at least seven games this year, Tech appears to be ready to repeat or improve upon 2022.

The Case Against Texas Tech In 2023

© Annie Rice/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK

McGuire could have captured lightning in a bottle last season. They went 4-0 in one-score games and beat both Oklahoma and Texas in overtime; in fact, they went 3-0 in overtime wins and notched three upset victories. Sound coaching does factor into close games, but so does a little bit of luck. History says those records are unsustainable.

Things get markedly more difficult for Tech, too. They play the nation's 17th-toughest schedule and the fourth-toughest in-league. While Tech avoids Oklahoma this year, they catch Texas, Kansas State, TCU, and Baylor, along with that non-conference against Oregon, a projected top-10 team.

The team doesn't have to regress for their record to. A more difficult schedule (up from 35th last year) may flip a couple of those one-score wins into losses. Shough has yet to prove he can play an entire season, and it's tough to win games when playing musical chairs with the starting QB.

Overall, I project 7.3 wins for Texas Tech – status quo from last year's regular season total.

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