Big 12 Football Preview: UCF Knights

UCF makes the move up to the Big 12 in 2023. Despite coming from the Group of Five, they are primed to be a surprise contender this coming season.

The UCF Knights make their Big 12 debut in 2023, visiting defending champion Kansas State to open up league play in late September. They're one of three newcomers from the American and arguably the most accomplished over the past six seasons. Given the talent on the roster, UCF is ready to compete in the Big 12 from Day 1.

However, a lot has to go right for the Knights in 2023. Moving up a league makes their road to ten wins much more difficult than it was. But UCF hasn't shied away from big competition of late, taking down a top-10 Auburn team in the 2017 Peach Bowl and nearly repeating against LSU in the 2018 Fiesta Bowl.

Please welcome to the stage, the UCF Knights.

For the remainder of July, I'll be previewing each Big 12 member for the upcoming 2023 college football season. Agree (or disagree) with the assessment? Let me know on Twitter @roadtocfb.

UCF Big 12 Member Profile

• Previous: American
• 2022 record: 9-5 (6-2 AAC)
• Head Coach: Guz Malzahn (3rd season)
• Offensive coordinator: Darin Hinshaw (1st season)
• Defensive coordinator: Addison Williams (1st season)
• Returning starters: 15 (8 offense, 7 defense)
• 2023 recruiting rank: 7th in Big 12
• 2023 transfer rank: 7th in Big 12

2022 Season Recap

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In their final season with the American Athletic Conference, UCF made the conference title game. They were manhandled by eventual Cotton Bowl victor Tulane, but to again be on the doorstep of a New Year's Six bid had to be viewed as a success. But since 2017, success in Orlando has been re-defined.

In fact, 2023 could have been viewed as a letdown for a team that won 35 games in three seasons as recently as 2019. The Knights actually handed Tulane one of their two losses on the year earlier on and blasted a good SMU squad 41-19. But those wins were also marred by an inexcusable loss to Navy.

Between the Navy game and an early-season loss to Louisville, UCF was just nine points away from 11 wins.

2023 Season Outlook

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UCF hasn't been able to recreate the highs of the Scott Frost and Josh Huepel eras, but they haven't won fewer than nine games since 2016 (save for the incomplete COVID season). Gus Malzahn is an experienced coach with a track record of success in the SEC West and won the 2010 National Championship with Auburn. Despite moving up a league, UCF is positioned for another success in 2023.

Dual-threat QB John Rhys Plumlee returns after leading UCF in both passing (2,586 yards, 14 TDs) and rushing (1,091 non-sack yards, 11 TDs). Rhys Plumlee earned second-team All-AAC honors last season, combining for over 400 scrimmage yards four times. Leading receivers Javon Baker (796-5) and Kobe Hudson (641-7) also return, but Ryan O'Keefe transferred to Boston College.

Four starters along the offensive line are back (three transfer starters), including newly-added Marcellus Marshall, who earned first-team All-MAC honors at Kent State in 2022. The fifth starting spot is likely to be assumed by Stanford transfer Drake Metcalf. UCF lost two all-conference players along the offensive line, including Matthew Lee (Miami), and this group will have to over-produce to be a great unit.

Even in the Big 12, though, UCF should have one of the more talented and productive offenses.

But UCF had to hire two new coordinators after theirs left for other jobs. On the offensive side, Malzahn hired UAB's Darin Hinshaw, who has over a decade of experience at the Power Five level, namely with Kentucky and Tennessee. On the other side, UCF elevated Addison Williams, the assistant head coach and DB's coach, to defensive coordinator.

The secondary is UCF's best weapon on defense. Three of five starters return, and they seriously bolstered the unit with Middle Tennessee transfer Decorian Patterson at corner. In 2022, Patterson notched 12 PBUs and a nation-leading seven interceptions. Phil Steele ranks UCF's secondary as the fifth-best in the Big 12.

Up front, the Knights boast plenty of depth, with seven of their top eight rotators back this season. Edge rusher Josh Celiscar was third on the team in tackles (54) while complement Tre'Mon Morris-Brash led UCF with seven sacks. The lone rising starter could be Lee Hunter, who was a top-15 recruit along the interior defensive line in the 2022 recruiting cycle. Steele also ranks this unit fifth in the conference.

The Case For UCF In 2023

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Rhys Plumlee is immediately one of the best QBs in the Big 12, perhaps only behind the starter for Texas (be it Quinn Ewers, Maalik Murphy, or Arch Manning) and Dillon Gabriel. He's a serious dual-threat QB that also starts for the UCF baseball team. He's a physical runner and dynamic athlete that often bails out the offense when the line gives up pressure.

UCF has the offensive talent to score and compete with anybody in the conference. Barring injury to key players – which has been an issue the past couple seasons – they should be in fine shape with the football.

Defensively, their two more important units are their strength – the defensive line and secondary. While there's a step up in competition, those units will hold up.

UCF plays the fifth-easiest schedule in the Big 12, avoiding Texas and TCU in league play. They handle Oklahoma after a bye week, but that game and their game against Kansas State come on the road. They also play a tough non-conference game at Boise State in Week 2. Overall, I project 7.7 wins for UCF, with a seriously-higher ceiling. UCF could be the surprise team of the Big 12 in 2023.

The Case Against UCF In 2023

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Of course, there's the argument that UCF managed to lose five games with a Group of Five schedule. They're just 5-6 against Power Five competition over the last five seasons, with three of those wins coming against Georgia Tech and a reeling Stanford team. The jump up to the Big 12 just won't be that easy.

However, despite the move up, UCF actually plays a similarly-rated slate this season compared to last. This year, they play the 38th-toughest schedule nationally, versus the 36th last season. Despite the league increasing in difficulty, UCF hasn't taken the easy road to 10 wins in the past.

The other concern is for quarterback health. Rhys Plumlee doesn't shy away from contact and is regularly on the move behind an offensive line that may be worse than last season. Taking so many hits could pile up, and he's missed games throughout his career. Should Rhys Plumlee miss games, UCF would be in serious trouble.

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