Big 12 Football Preview: West Virginia Mountaineers

West Virginia has a tall mountain to climb in 2023 – a team craving serious improvement.

No longer the geographic outlier in the Big 12 Conference, West Virginia looks to capitalize on newcomers to the league. The Mountaineers have fallen from grace the past five seasons and enter 2023 with a lot of questions. Head coach Neal Brown appears to be on borrowed time, being granted another season despite turnover in the athletic department.

Without much experience at QB, a defense needing to fill big shoes, and one of the toughest schedules in the country, WVU has its work cut out for it. A program stuck in first gear might need a major shakeup to get back on track.

From mid-July to early August, I'll be previewing each Big 12 member for the upcoming 2023 college football season. Agree (or disagree) with the assessment? Let me know on Twitter @roadtocfb.

West Virginia Mountaineers Rundown

• 2022 Record: 5-7 (3-6 Big 12)
• Head coach: Neal Brown (5th season)
• Offensive coordinator: Chad Scott (1st season)
• Defensive coordinator: Jordan Lesley (5th season)
• Returning starters: 13 (6 offense, 7 defense)
• 2023 recruiting rank: 8th in Big 12
• 2023 transfer rank: 6th in Big 12

Looking Back To 2022

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The Neal Brown plane has yet to get off the ground. Since coming aboard in 2019, West Virginia has never finished with more than six wins, with their most successful season coming in the COVID-altered 2020 year (6-4). Last year seemed to be a boiling over point, in which WVU finished 5-7.

The Mountaineers blew their game to arch rival Pitt late in the fourth quarter with an unfortunate pick-six. The following week, they lost in overtime to Kansas, also ironically losing the game with a pick-six. Cries for Brown to be dismissed grew deafening in Morgantown and the ushering out of an old athletic director seemed to be the move to spark change.

But Brown remains the head coach of West Virginia. However, he's likely on a short leash and needs a hot start to salvage his position.

West Virginia Mountaineers 2023 Season Outlook

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Unfortunately, the 'Neers have a Mountain to climb early in 2023. They begin the season on the road at regional rival Penn State, then turn around and host Pitt in Week 3. WVU plays Texas Tech and TCU before heading into a bye. They play at Oklahoma, UCF, and Baylor. WVU never has a rest advantage on the season and their schedule ranks the sixth-most difficult in the country.

The biggest gap left is at quarterback. While USC and Georgia transfer JT Daniels didn't light the world on fire, he did provide veteran leadership. Neither Garrett Greene nor Nicco Marchiol offer much in terms of playing experience, with the latter being a RS freshman. Brown hired longtime assistant Chad Scott to call the offense this year. Scott, the former running backs coach, will almost certainly lean into this team's strengths: the offensive line and backfield.

Converted RB CJ Donaldson returns after a stellar freshman year cut short by injury. The 6-foot-2, 240-pound tight end rushed for 6.0 yards per carry and eight touchdowns, quickly cementing himself as a diverse threat that WVU can build an offense around. Justin Johnson also returns after receiving 98 carries a season ago.

The biggest strength for WVU is in their offensive line. An excellent unit a season ago, all five starters return in 2023. Zach Frazier is a legitimate All America candidate at center and Phil Steele ranks this unit as the ninth-best unit in the country.

Defensively, the Mountaineers lost a lot of key pieces. All-conference DT Dante Stills left for the NFL and one of their top corners, Charles Woods, transferred out. But they landed Anthony Wilson (Georgia Southern) and Beanie Bishop (Minnesota) in the secondary to improve the unit.

Up front is where the worries begin for WVU on defense. The defensive line should be a fine unit in the scope of the Big 12, but it's the weakest unit they've had in a few years.

Given that the degree of difficulty is so high right out of the gate, it's tough to envision a radically-improved West Virginia this year.

The Case For West Virginia In 2023

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The bar for success in Morgantown isn't super high, at least in terms of previous performance. Although the non-conference makes WVU's schedule a nightmare in September, they do face all four newcomers to the conference and avoid Texas in league play. Handling Pitt at home doesn't hurt, either.

Should WVU lean into a more methodical pace and rely on Donaldson and the run game, they could control the pace in games against Texas Tech, TCU, Oklahoma, and more to keep the games manageable.

Ultimately, building a case for West Virginia comes first with setting expectations. Nine or more wins likely isn't in the cards this coming season. However, even building to 7-5 and making a bowl game could be seen as a positive for this squad.

The Case Against West Virginia In 2023

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Ground and pound only goes so far in a league with as high-volume offenses as the Big 12. The reality is, WVU cannot expect to walk into Penn State and win by running 1990s football with Donaldson. The offense has to expand and no QB that could start instills a lot of confidence in that unit to be able to expand.

The Mountaineers have one of the least inspiring receiving units in the conference, having lost all four of their top receivers last season. Devin Carter transfers in from NC State with 42 starts and a 16.2 yards per reception average in five seasons. But overall, the unit lacks upside.

The only case really necessary against WVU is its schedule. It's downright brutal and there's a very real possibility that the Mountaineers begin 2023 with a 1-4 record. In fact, WVU projects to be an underdog in four of their first five – save for Duquesne, an FCS team. A 1-4 start would almost certainly see Brown out the door and the Mountaineers would be salvaging and starting anew.

I project just 4.1 wins for West Virginia this season, well out of bowl consideration. 

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