Big 12 Football: Which Teams Make the Championship Game

The league says 250 possible scenarios will determine which teams make it to Arlington on December 7.

The Big 12 Championship Trophy on display during Big 12 Media Days. / Sara Diggins/American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK

Welcome to the last week of the regular college football season. And welcome to chaos. The Big 12 Championship Game in Arlington is less than two weeks away, and the two teams playing in this game will not be known until the Week 14 games are completed.

After Arizona State beat BYU and Kansas beat Colorado in Week 13, we now have a four-way tie at the top of the Big 12 standings. Arizona State, BYU, Colorado, and Iowa State are all at 6-2 in Big 12 play this year.

If that is not enough, five other teams are currently at 5-3: Baylor, Kansas State, TCU, Texas Tech, and West Virginia.

None of the top four teams play each other in Week 14. Iowa State does play Kansas State. In the 5-3 group, Texas Tech and West Virginia play each other.

So, what are the different scenarios that will determine who plays in the championship game? The Big 12 said late Saturday night that there were 250 possible scenarios. No, we aren't going to go through all of them, but we will discuss a few.

Big 12 Week 14 Games

Before we talk about scenarios, let's first look at the Big 12 slate of games for Week 14

• Colorado vs. Oklahoma State - Friday, November 29, 11 a.m., ABC
• UCF vs. Utah - Friday, November 29, 7 p.m., Fox
• Baylor vs. Kansas - Saturday, November 30, 11 a.m., ESPN2
• Texas Tech vs. West Virginia - Saturday, November 30, 11 a.m., FS1
• Arizona vs. Arizona State - Saturday, November 30, 2:30 p.m., Fox
• Cincinnati vs. TCU - Saturday, November 30, 5 p.m., ESPN+
• Iowa State vs. Kansas State - Saturday, November 30, 6:30 p.m., Fox
• BYU vs. Houston - Saturday, November 30, 9:15 p.m., ESPN

All times are Central time

Big 12 Championship Tiebreaker Scenarios

Also, before we can talk scenarios, you must know the tiebreakers that the Big 12 uses:

1. Head-to-Head record among the tied teams
2. Win percentage against all common conference opponents among the tied teams
3. Record versus common opponents by opponent standing
4. Strength of Conference schedule

Yes, there's more than this, but those four are the condensed version. If you want to know all the details of the tiebreakers, read them here.

Big 12 Championship Game Scenarios

Two-Team Tie Scenario:

This one is the easiest. Of the top four teams, if two win and two lose, we will have two teams that finish 7-2 in conference play. Those two teams will meet in the championship game.

Three-Team Tie Scenario:

Now is where the fun begins. Of those top four teams, let's assume one loses and the other three win. If that's the case, here's what we have:

• Arizona State loses - Iowa State versus BYU
• Colorado loses - Arizona State versus Iowa State
• Iowa State loses - Arizona State versus BYU

If BYU loses and ASU, CU, and ISU win, it gets more complicated:

• If Texas Tech defeats West Virginia AND Baylor beats Kansas and Cincinnati beats TCU, then it will be Colorado versus Iowa State.
• If Texas Tech defeats West Virginia BUT either Kansas beats Baylor or TCU beats Cincinnati, then it will be Colorado versus Arizona State.
• If West Virginia defeats Texas Tech, then it will be Arizona State versus Iowa State.

Four-Team Tie Scenario:

So, what if Arizona State, BYU, Colorado, and Iowa State all win on Saturday? The Big 12 has determined that, in that scenario, Arizona State will face Iowa State.

But Wait - There's More:

Imagine this Week 14 scenario:

• Arizona defeats Arizona State in the Territorial Cup; ASU is now 6-3.
• Houston defeats BYU; BYU is now 6-3.
• Kansas State wins Farmageddon; both KSU and ISU are 6-3.
• Gundy and Oklahoma State finally win a Big 12 conference game and defeat Colorado; Buffs are now 6-3.
• Baylor defeats Kansas; the Bears are now 6-3.
• TCU defeats Cincinnati; the Horned Frogs are now 6-3.
• The winner of Texas Tech versus West Virginia is 6-3.

That gives us an 8-way tie for first place. Half the teams in the league would be tied for first place. In this case, it comes down to strength of conference schedule. And here's how this plays out:

• If Texas Tech defeats West Virginia, then we get BUTT Bowl Part Two - Baylor versus Texas Tech.
• If West Virginia defeats Texas Tech, then it will be Baylor versus Kansas State.

If there is a five-, six-, or seven-way tie, there are even more scenarios. But I think I've given you enough of a headache, so we don't need to make it worse!

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