Big 12 Week 13 Matchups and Predictions

Arizona State and Colorado have an opportunity to make the Big 12 Championship in their first year of being in the conference.

Nov 16, 2024; Manhattan, Kansas, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils quarterback Sam Leavitt (10) hands off to running back Cam Skattebo (4) against the Kansas State Wildcats during the second quarter at Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Sewell-Imagn Images / Scott Sewell-Imagn Images

Week 13 of college football is here! This week's lineup includes excellent games like Arizona State versus BYU and Kansas versus Colorado.

Week 13 exclusively features conference play! There are eight conference games. The best game this week will be Arizona State at BYU; the loser will not be in control of their destiny for the Big 12 Championship game.

My record this season is 95-37, which means I have been right 72% of the time.

Big 12 Week 13 Matchups and Predictions

All times listed are Central Time.

The spreads and totals are from Wednesday, November 20.

Arizona at TCU

Saturday, 2:00 p.m., ESPN+

Nov 9, 2024; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs wide receiver Jack Bech (18) makes a leaping catch over Oklahoma State Cowboys cornerback Korie Black (2) during the first half at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images / Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

TCU is coming off a bye week after a dominating win over Oklahoma State. This week's matchup has two very streaky offenses that lack consistency. This game contains three of the best five wide receivers in the conference: Arizona wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan,TCU wide receivers Jack Bech and Savion Williams. TCU matches up against Arizona very well. Arizona's strength is passing the ball, and TCU has the 24th-best passing defense in the country. The Wildcats have the 112th-ranked rushing attack, and TCU is 99th against the run, which helps the Horned Frogs minimize that dimension of the game. TCU averages the sixth most passing yards per game, and Arizona gives up the 69th most per game, even while playing teams that struggle to pass the ball, like Houston, Utah, and UCF. These games overinflated how good Arizona is against the pass; in reality, I believe they are much worse against the pass than 69th. TCU quarterback Josh Hoover has played very well in his last two games and has the fifth most passing yards in the nation. I think TCU wins this game due to their playmakers.

Pick: TCU.

Spread: TCU -12.

Total: 59.5 points.

Best Bet: TCU Straight.

UCF at West Virginia

Saturday, 2:30 p.m., ESPNU

Nov 9, 2024; Tempe, Arizona, USA; UCF Knights running back RJ Harvey (7) celebrates a touchdown against the Arizona State Sun Devils during the first half at Mountain America Stadium, Home of the ASU Sun Devils. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images / Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images

I think West Virginia should be the favorite in this game. They have won two of their last three and have only lost to good teams. They lost to Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Penn State, and Pittsburgh; Baylor is the only team in that group that has not been ranked this season. Baylor is on a four-game win streak and is playing very well right now. The Mountaineers' schedule does not reflect how good this team is.

West Virginia Quarterback Garrett Greene is a very athletic player who can beat teams with his arm and legs. He led the team in rushing before an injury earlier in the season and is still not far behind. UCF has a very potent rushing attack led by RJ Harvey, who has ran for 1328 yards and 19 touchdowns this season. The Knights have a plethora of great backs to choose from and should make this a tough game for the Mountaineers. West Virginia is terrible against the pass but is adequate against the run, and UCF has played four different quarterbacks this season because they have struggled to throw the ball downfield. The game is in Morgantown and will be challenging for UCF due to the weather and elevation change. It is supposed to be raining and be in the mid-40s during the game.

Pick: West Virginia.

Spread: West Virginia +3.

Total: 63.5 points.

Best Bet: West Virginia +3.

#16 Colorado at Kansas

Saturday, 2:30 p.m., FOX

Nov 16, 2024; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Colorado Buffaloes quarterback Shedeur Sanders (2) carries the ball in the second half against the Utah Utes at Folsom Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Colorado opened as an 8.5-point favorite against Kansas; the line is currently at 2.5. Kansas has beaten two straight-ranked opponents and lost to Kansas State by two. They are playing very well, and how many thought they would at the beginning of the season. Colorado is exceeding all expectations in Deion's second year.

Colorado passes the ball 69.1% of the time, and Kansas has the 82nd-ranked passing defense. Along with that, Shedeur Sanders has the sixth -most passing yards in the country, and the Buffs have many fantastic options at receiver. Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels has had one interception in the last four games while throwing for eight touchdowns and 1011 yards. Kansas' success this week will be determined by whether he can continue this behavior. Kansas has an elite running back in Devin Neal, but for them to succeed, the pass needs to thrive, so Colorado does not stack the box. Colorado has too much speed and explosiveness on offense for Kansas to keep up with.

Pick: Colorado.

Spread: Colorado -2.5.

Total: 59.5 points.

Best Bet: Colorado -2.5.

Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State

Saturday, 2:30 p.m., ESPN+

Texas Tech's Josh Kelly runs after a catch against Colorado in a Big 12 football game Saturday, Nov. 9, 2024, at Jones AT&T Stadium. / Stephen Garcia/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Both teams have terrible defenses against the pass, and Oklahoma State has the second-worst overall defense in yards per game in the FBS. Texas Tech has a balanced offense and is coming off their bye week, which will be problematic for the Cowboys. Red Raiders running back Tahj Brooks has 1184 yards and 11 touchdowns this season and will trounce Oklahoma State's defense. He missed one game against Washington State and still has the eighth-most rushing yards in the country. Texas Tech quarterback Behren Morton should be able to put on a clinic against the 119th-ranked passing defense in the country.

Texas Tech gives up an average of 305.6 yards per game against the pass, the second-worst in football, and I still do not think Oklahoma State quarterback Alan Bowman is going to succeed against it. The Cowboys' saving grace is running back Ollie Gordon II, who has had a disappointing year but is still a very good running back. This game will be an offensive showdown and will be determined by one or two unsuccessful offensive drives.

Pick: Texas Tech.

Spread: Texas Tech -3.5.

Total: 67 points.

Best Bet: Texas Tech -3.5.

#14 BYU at #21 Arizona State

Saturday, 2:30 p.m., ESPN

Nov 16, 2024; Provo, Utah, USA; The Kansas Jayhawks offense lines up against the Brigham Young Cougars defense during the fourth quarter at LaVell Edwards Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-Imagn Images / Rob Gray-Imagn Images

The winner of this game will most likely make the Big 12 championship game. BYU has relied on their stout defense this season to win them games. BYU's strength is their pass defense, which allows the 15th fewest passing yards per game. Their rushing defense is very good, regardless of their 58th rank against the run. They have played three of the top five rushing leaders in the division, and after this week, it will be four. They also played Ollie Gordon II, who led the nation in rushing yards last season. Arizona State has two phenomenal runners, running back Cam Skattebo and quarterback Sam Leavitt. This is a balanced matchup offensively, with only a .8 average of points per game difference; BYU averages more.

Arizona State has won three straight games and is coming off of a big win against Kansas State. BYU lost to Kansas last week with a terrible offensive performance and needs to win this game to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Pick: Arizona State.

Spread: Arizona State -3.

Total: 48.5 points.

Best Bet: Over 48.5 points.

Baylor at Houston

Saturday, 6:00 p.m., FS1

Nov 16, 2024; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; Baylor Bears quarterback Sawyer Robertson (13) escapes from West Virginia Mountaineers defensive lineman Sean Martin (5) during the fourth quarter at Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images / Ben Queen-Imagn Images

Houston scored three points last week against Arizona. Their offense has been the Cougar's issue all season. They average 14 points a game, which is the second-fewest in the country. Houston quarterback Zeon Chriss is a great runner but has struggled to pass the ball this year. Baylor has won four games straight and, on offense, is firing on all cylinders. The Bears scored an average of 45.75 points over the last four games and have shown no signs of slowing down. Baylor quarterback Sawyer Robertson has thrown for 11 touchdowns and two interceptions during their win streak. The Bears rely heavily on their running backs, Bryson Washington and Dawson Pendergrass, who have scored nine touchdowns combined in their last two games. Baylor should dominate Houston and cruise by this game with little difficulty.

Pick: Baylor.

Spread: Baylor -7.5.

Total: 50 points.

Best Bet: Baylor -7.5.

Iowa State vs Utah

Saturday, 6:30 p.m., FOX

Iowa State Cyclones quarterback Rocco Becht (3) runs for a touchdown against Cincinnati during the fourth quarter in the week-12 NCAA football at Jack Trice Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 16, 2024, in Ames, Iowa. / Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

On average, Iowa State scores 11 more points than Utah. The Utes have improved offensively each game for the last four games and will challenge the Cyclone's 107th-ranked rushing defense. The Utes' identity under Kyle Whittingham has always been their great defenses; they average 317.2 yards allowed per game, which is 23rd nationally. The defense is better than this suggests. Utah's offense has been atrocious this season and has left the defense on the field for a majority of games.

Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht has played well this season. He has thrown for 2628 yards, 17 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. Last week, he did a great job of stepping up and running the ball, which helped them beat Cincinnati. I think both the Iowa State spread and over are likely to hit due to Utah's offensive struggles and trash time at the end of the game.

Pick: Iowa State.

Spread: Iowa state -7.5.

Total: 41.5 points.

Best Bet: Iowa State -7.5.

Cincinnati at Kansas State

Saturday, 7:00 p.m., ESPN2

Nov 16, 2024; Manhattan, Kansas, USA; Kansas State Wildcats running back DJ Giddens (31) is tackled by Arizona State Sun Devils defensive lineman Clayton Smith (10) and defensive back Xavion Alford (2) during the third quarter at Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Sewell-Imagn Images / Scott Sewell-Imagn Images

This is a pretty bad matchup for Cincinnati. Cincinnati struggles to stop the run, and Kansas State has one of the best running backs in the country. Wildcats running back DJ Giddens has ran for 1128 yards and five touchdowns, which is the ninth-most yards in the nation. Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson has struggled the past two games. He has thrown four interceptions and has not run the ball successfully. His athleticism makes him a challenge for defenses, and without his rushing success, he has become more one-dimensional.  

Cincinnati started the year very well; they were 5-2, losing by a combined four points in their losses. They have now lost three straight games and look lost. Cincinnati quarterback Brendan Sorsby has played well and has improved his game by tucking the ball and running for yards when no one is open. Last week, Sorsby rushed for 143 yards and a touchdown. He is very smart with the ball and will be a challenge for the Wildcats defense.

Pick: Kansas State.

Spread: Cincinnati +8.5.

Total: 52.5 points.

Best Bet: Over 52.5 points.

Week 13 Big Games Outside the Big 12

#5 Indiana at #2 Ohio State

Saturday, 11:00 a.m., FOX

Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Jeremiah Smith (4) attempts a one handed catch in front of Northwestern Wildcats defensive back Josh Fussell (13) during the first half of the NCAA football game at Wrigley Field in Chicago on Saturday, Nov. 16, 2024. Replay review ruled the ball hit the ground in the endzone. / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Indiana has an opportunity to prove themselves as a contender this week by beating Ohio State. This is the Buckeyes' third top-five matchup of the season, and they have proved themselves as a team competing for the national title. Ohio State and Indiana have two of the three highest margins of victory and should be a great matchup between two offensive juggernauts. Buckeyes' quarterback Will Howard has thrown for 2484 yards with 24 touchdowns and five interceptions. Indiana allows the third fewest yards per game in the country but has played lackluster offenses this season. This will be the team's first test and will be a daunting challenge. Ohio State has two of the most talented running backs in the country, TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins.

Indiana allows the fewest rushing yards per game at 72.2 yards and needs to slow this duo down. Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith has proved himself to be the future of Ohio State's offense and an issue for all defenses for the next two seasons. In his first year, he has caught 49 passes for 865 yards and nine touchdowns. Ohio State is a complete team with very few flaws. Indiana needs to come out fast and force turnovers to win this game.

The Hoosiers average the second most points per game, and Ohio State averages the second least yards given up per game. This is the marquee matchup. Can Indiana's offense overpower Ohio State's robust defense? Indiana's offense has only struggled against Michigan's defense this season, which is a higher-caliber defense. I think Curt Cignetti is a significantly better coach than Ryan Day; Cignetti has won everywhere he has gone. The Hoosiers will win this game outright, and the over will hit.

Pick: Indiana.

Spread: Indiana +13.5.

Total: 51.5 points.

Best Bet: Indiana +13.5.

#19 Army vs. #6 Notre Dame

Saturday, 6:00 p.m., NBC or Peacock

Nov 9, 2024; Denton, Texas, USA; The Army Black Knights celebrate in the locker room after a 14-3 victory against the North Texas Mean Green at DATCU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Danny Wild-Imagn Images / Danny Wild-Imagn Images

It is not often that an undefeated team is an underdog this late into the season. There is a huge discrepancy of talent between Notre Dame and Army, and the Fighting Irish have every reason to win this game. Army averages the most rushing yards per game in the country, and their leading rusher is quarterback Bryson Daily. Notre Dame stopped Navy from successfully running the ball and looks to replicate that success this week. I hope Army wins this game, but I do not see how they can. The game itself is played in Yankee Stadium, so at least it is not in South Bend.

Pick: Notre Dame.

Spread: +14.5.

Total: Over 44.5.

Best Bet: Over 44.5.

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