College Football Conference Realignment: Teams That Will Succeed In New Roles
On July 1, the largest conference realignment since the disbanding of the Big East begins, with the heaviest hitters moving in 2024. Headlining the move is the one that kicked it all off, Texas and Oklahoma moving to the SEC. You can find every conference realignment move here. Which teams will do the best in their new conference moving forward? The worst?
Of course, there's innumerable ways to count success – wins and losses, recruiting improvement, financial gain, championships... For this exercise, I'm just talking about on the field product. Who wins the most games? Who competes for a conference championship? Recruiting and the likes stem from that.
One last note: I'm looking to the future. This isn't an immediate evaluation of 2023 or 2024. Rather, which team made the best choice to move? Let's find out.
Conference Realignment: Biggest Successes
UTSA Roadrunners
Conference-USA to American
We're getting into the weeds right away. Jeff Traylor turned UTSA from a fun trivia answer into a serious powerhouse in the Group of Five. Pre-Traylor, UTSA had an FBS win percentage of .427; in the last two years under him, the Roadrunners are an astounding 23-5. They left Conference-USA with back-to-back titles.
The buy-in in San Antonio is really there and UTSA is moving up in conference prestige. While the competition ramps up a bit, they've proven to be able to run with teams like Houston and Memphis. It helps that a majority of C-USA is coming over, too.
UTSA will contend for AAC championships until Traylor moves on. Pencil them in as a perennial bowl contender, as well.
Liberty Flames
Independent to Conference-USA
With most of the best football programs vacating C-USA for the American, the top of the food chain is wide open. Liberty just hired Coastal Carolina head coach Jamey Chadwell and he brought along a majority of that staff. In case your eyes haven't been on Myrtle Beach the past three years, the Chanticleers won 31 games in three seasons under Chadwell and won a Sun Belt championship.
Liberty has been holding their own as an FBS independent since joining the division in 2018. The Flames sign recruiting classes in line with their C-USA counterparts (third-best class in 2023) and have brought some serious NFL talent through their ranks.
Liberty also spends more money on their athletic programs than any current C-USA member, according to their 2019-20 budget. Aside from Western Kentucky, there's a massive power gap in C-USA that Liberty will fill.
Houston Cougars
American to Big 12
Not Cincinnati, the first Group of Five team to make the CFP? Not UCF, the unofficial 2017 National Champions? Houston?
Aside from coaching continuity, Houston, Texas, is a hotbed of high school talent. It's among the hottest beds, in fact, rivaling the prospect density you find in Miami-Dade and SoCal. And now, those recruits can play on the biggest stage by staying in their own backyard. Less and less will Houston miss out on players heading to Texas A&M or LSU.
Houston fits the geographic and cultural footprint of the Big 12 moreso than any of the other three newcomers. For an Ohio prospect trying to decide between Cincinnati and Louisville, there's now more of an allure to go to the Cardinals since they'll be playing mostly in their own time zone.
Not the case with Houston. An already-strong recruiting prowess is about to be even stronger. And that translates to wins.
Conference Realignment: Tough Roads Inbound
Oklahoma Sooners
Big 12 to SEC
Oklahoma has made four College Football Playoff appearances. Each time, it was a result of them winning the Big 12. In those years, the Sooners' best non-conference wins included Ohio State (2017), Tennessee (2015), and a 4-8 UCLA team (2019). Aside from that strong Ohio State win, they relied on beating their conference to get it.
It goes without saying that Oklahoma won't be the conference favorite anymore.
It's true that the allure of playing an SEC schedule and at SEC opponents' stadiums is a huge recruiting draw – there's nothing like it. But for the recruits that care about winning conference titles, they might look to rival Oklahoma State instead.
Conference fit and culture are real things. OU might lose a handful of recruits (and coaches!) that don't want to play in the SEC. On top of that, they have to now recruit and compete with the Alabamas and Georgias for SEC recruits.
I'm not here to say they're a perennial six-win team, but there's a slim chance they replicate their Big 12 successes.
Rice Owls
Conference-USA to American
The decision to bring in rice was twofold, and neither had to do with on-field performance. First, Rice is one of the most academically prestigious universities in the FBS. Second, it's located in Houston.
Losing the other Houston school took southeast Texas out of the American (and UNT and UTSA's departure darn near took the whole state out). This was purely a TV market and academic move.
As for the football team? They've won 10 games twice since 1950 and appeared in one bowl game since 2015 (last year, by invite).
BYU Cougars
Independent to Big 12
Despite it making a lot of logistical sense, BYU is a weird team to add to the Big 12. Traditionally, they fit in with the Mountain West (previously a member of the Western Athletic Conference), in the same way that Notre Dame fits in with the ACC. Being located near Salt Lake City, the Pac-12 was always the assumed conference for the Cougars.
Of course, geography doesn't do much in the way of conferences anymore (see: UCLA and USC in the Big Ten). But it does affect recruiting. For a recruit trying to decide between BYU and Washington State, they may opt to head to Pullman to stay in the Western footprint.
On the field, they've been really competitive. However, adding in a full Power Five schedule changes things quite a bit. In 2022, they scheduled a hybrid-Power schedule and went 8-5. Decent results, but shy of a 10-win season they've achieved seven times since 2006.
At least we still get the Holy War.
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