College Football Playoff Quarterfinal Predictions For Fiesta, Peach, Rose, Sugar Bowls

The quarterfinal round of the College Football Playoff rings in the New Year. Predicting the New Year's Six bowl games in 2025.

Oregon Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel carries the ball as the No. 3 Oregon Ducks host the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes Saturday, Oct. 12, 2024 at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore. / Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The New Year's Six bowl slate returns to its rightful slot on, well, New Year's. At least, in some form. This year, the Fiesta Bowl, Peach Bowl, Rose Bowl, and Sugar Bowl fold into the College Football Playoff as a quarterfinal matchup. The Orange and Cotton Bowls host semifinal matchups in 2025 (on Jan. 9 and 10) but rotate with the Fiesta, Peach, and Sugar bowls as quarter/semi-finals; the Rose Bowl agreed to fold into the CFP on the condition that it remains a quarterfinal on its traditional Jan. 1, 5 p.m. EST/2 p.m. PST time slot.

The four teams that received a bye–Oregon, Georgia, Boise State, and Arizona State–now play their first CFP games. The four challengers include the next four highest seeds as all four home teams (and favorites) won in convincing Round 1 fashion: Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame, and Ohio State.

Let's predict these games! Last round, I went 4-for-4, but that meant picking all chalk. That's not the case this round. Let's get into it.

College Football Playoff Quarterfinal Schedule

Kick times listed in EST and all games are broadcast on ESPN. Teams listed according to seed, not final CFP rank.

• Vrbo Fiesta Bowl: No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 3 Boise State – Tuesday, Dec. 31, 7:30 p.m.
• Chick-fil-a Peach Bowl: No. 5 Texas vs. No. 4 Arizona State – Wednesday, Jan. 1, 1 p.m.
• Rose Bowl: No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Oregon – Wednesday, Jan. 1, 5 p.m.
• Allstate Sugar Bowl: No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia – Wednesday, Jan. 1, 8:45 p.m.

College Football Playoff Quarterfinal Predictions

Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Boise State Broncos

Dec 21, 2024; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions defensive end Abdul Carter (11) reacts after sacking Southern Methodist Mustangs quarterback Kevin Jennings (7) during the third quarter in the first round of the College Football Playoff at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images / Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

The overwhelming majority of Americans outside of central Pennsylvania will be rooting for Boise State on New Year's Eve. The scrappy underdog, lone Group of Five representative with a Heisman runner-up at running back? And we all remember Boise State in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl.

Though '07 was what cemented itself as one of the greatest moments in college football history, Boise State actually won an additional two Fiesta Bowls (2010, 2014), bringing the Broncos' tally in that game to 3-0. As +11 underdogs, Boise would need a 2007-level of historic upset to advance to the Orange Bowl.

Unfortunately, I believe Penn State is the better team. The Nittany Lions rushed for nearly 300 yards against Oregon and out-rushed SMU by over 130 yards in the opening round. Offensively, Penn State should be able to score on a Boise State defense ranked 36th in rushing efficiency. However, note a pair of stud pass rushers in Ahmed Hassanein (12.5 TFL, 8.5 sacks) and Jayden Virgin-Morgan (15.5 TFL, 10 sacks).

The story around Penn State always includes a stout front seven led by future first-round pick Adbul Carter. While I've been on record saying this Penn State front seven is a bit overstated, it's only been exposed against two of the top five teams in the nation (Ohio State and Oregon). All other challengers failed to get much going. On the flip side, UNLV was able to hold Asthon Jeanty to 3.9 and 6.5 yards per carry.

Jeanty is going to finish with plenty of rushing yards. But when it turns time to lean on QB Maddux Madsen, I'm not sure Boise State is the team to knock Penn State out of the CFP. America wants it badly, but I'm just not sure it happens.

The pick: Penn State 38, Boise State 24

Texas Longhorns vs. Arizona State Sun Devils

Dec 7, 2024; Arlington, TX, USA; Arizona State Sun Devils running back Cam Skattebo (4) in action during the game between the Iowa State Cyclones and the Arizona State Sun Devils at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images / Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Full transparency from the start: I think Arizona State makes this game a lot closer than most everyone expects.

Texas is a major step up in class defensively from what ASU previously faced. The Longhorns roster an All-American at every level–CB Jahdae Barron (first team), DL Alfred Collins (second), and DB Michael Taaffe (second)–and finished second against the pass and seventh against the run despite playing ESPN's 14th-ranked schedule (FPI). ASU played against zero All-American selections prior.

But that isn't the end-all, be-all – ASU is the definition of the sum greater than its parts defensively. This unit is capable of slowing down an inconsistent Quinn Ewers and the Texas offense. The Sun Devils finished the regular season 16th in rushing efficiency allowed. They'll be tested with potent back Quintrevion "Tre" Wisner, who rushed for over 500 yards in his last four games. Jaydon Blue also ran for 146 yards and a pair of scores against Clemson.

Of course, Arizona State runs through RB Cam Skattebo. The senior finished fifth in Heisman Trophy voting and combined for 22 touchdowns this season, including over 200 total yards and three total touchdowns in the Big 12 Championship rout of Iowa State. He'll face the stiffest defense yet.

But as Skattebo goes, so does Arizona State. Given the current roll of the team, I do believe they keep this game close. But ultimately, stepping way up in class matters. This season will go down in the ASU history books, but I do believe it ends in Atlanta.

The pick: Texas 31, Arizona State 27

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Oregon Ducks

Oct 12, 2024; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Jeremiah Smith (4) runs the ball after a catch during the fourth quarter against the Oregon Ducks at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images / Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images

In Week 7, No. 2 Oregon edged out No. 1 Ohio State at home, 32-31. That game ended up determining the Big Ten champion–as Oregon would go on to make Indianapolis over Ohio State and win–and cemeted itself as one of the most exciting games of the year.

But this isn't Eugene and Ohio State showed its ceiling in the opening round of the College Football Playoff. It turns out, when Michigan isn't on the opposing sideline, the Buckeyes are frighteningly good, hanging 42 on a Tennessee defense that ranked fourth in points per drive. Of course, Oregon did still win the last time out thanks to three crucial factors:

1. The game was at home and Autzen Stadium features one of the most daunting home crowds in college football.
2. CB Denzel Burke was torched by WR Evan Stewart, an issue exacerbated by the defensive coaching staff's unwillingness to play anything but single coverage.
3. QB Will Howard slid down in field goal territory just a second after the clock expired. Whoops.

With his job potentially on the line–though Ohio State's since refuted that–Ryan Day coaches more aggressively than when not (besides this CFP, see 2022 against Georgia, who beat TCU 65-7 in the national championship, for evidence). When OC Chip Kelly utilizes his weapons downfield, like freshman phenom Jeremiah Smith, there's few things to stop the Ohio State offense.

But on the other side, Oregon still should be able to score. Back Jordan James went for over 100 yards the last time out and QB Dillon Gabriel won the game with a rushing score of his own. The secondary issues didn't fix overnight–Tennessee was unable to exploit them–and the pass game should still be there for the Ducks.

But picking this game, it's no longer at the victor's home field. Oregon won by a point and a few unpredictable decisions led to the victory (see points 2 and 3 above). Seeing how Ohio State responded in the CFP, playing in a bowl game they know well and have won each of the last four times played, I'm picking Ohio State to advance.

The pick: Ohio State 35, Oregon 31

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Georgia Bulldogs

Notre Dame safety Xavier Watts (0) celebrates getting an interception during a NCAA college football game against Virginia at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 16, 2024, in South Bend. / MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Starting QB Carson Beck won't play in this game. He underwent surgery for an elbow injury and subsequently declared for the NFL Draft. So, it's up to QB Gunner Stockton. In his first action in the SEC Championship against Texas, Stockton went 12-for-16 for 71 yards and a pick. Georgia won the game in overtime, 22-19, but the offense looked rough.

Enter a team with a more consistent offense than Texas: Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish rolled Indiana in Round 1 (despite two very late scores covering IU's tracks). And despite another impact injury–defensive lineman Rylie Mills went down and won't play the rest of the CFP–it's been a successful case of Next Man Up all season long. All-American CB Benjamin Morrison was lost for the season early on, but ND's defense ranks first in passing efficiency.

With Stockton in, Georgia likely leans on the ground game. There, the Irish rank ninth nationally, and that includes having played two service academies (run-heavy offenses that often skew rushing defense results). Al Golden is an aggressive enough coordinator to force Stockton to throw the ball to receivers against a defense anchored by All-American safety Xavier Watts.

This should be a defense-heavy game. Outside of a 98-yard touchdown run by RB Jeremiyah Love in the last round, Notre Dame was held to 95 total yards rushing. Georgia's defense, though not as historically daunting as recent editions, is capable of applying the brakes to ND's offense.

It may take a third-straight overtime game for Georgia to decide a victor. But I'm going with the team with a healthy starting quarterback and comparable, if not superior, defense.

The pick: Notre Dame 23, Georgia 17

College Football Playoff Projected Semifinal Matchups

All CFP quarterfinal games are broadcast on ESPN and listed below in EST.

• Orange Bowl: No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 6 Penn State (Thursday, Jan. 9, 7:30 p.m.)
• Cotton Bowl: No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 5 Texas (Friday, Jan. 10, 7:30 p.m.)

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