College Football Playoff Semifinal Predictions For Cotton & Orange Bowls

Just three games remain in the 2024-25 college football season. Ohio State, Texas, Notre Dame, and Penn State compete for a spot in the National Championship – who will it be?

Jan 1, 2025; Pasadena, CA, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes running back TreVeyon Henderson (32) carries the ball during the fourth quarter against the Oregon Ducks at Rose Bowl Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images / Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images

Soak it in, college football fans. We have just three games left before heading off into the longest offseason in major U.S. sports. But we're also down to the top four teams in college football competing in the CFP Semifinals for two coveted spots in the National Championship Game. Ohio State takes on Texas in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl while Notre Dame faces Penn State in the CapitalOne Orange Bowl. Let's predict who the two finalists will be.

The Orange Bowl kicks off Thursday, Jan. 9, at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, while the Cotton Bowl kicks off Friday, Jan. 10, at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. Both games begin around 7:30 p.m. EST and will be broadcast on ESPN.

So far, we're eight-for-eight on CFP predictions! Here's to finishing perfect.

College Football Playoff Semifinal Predictions

Cotton Bowl: Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Texas Longhorns

Ohio State Buckeyes defensive end Jack Sawyer (33) holds the Leishman Trophy following the College Football Playoff quarterfinal against the Oregon Ducks at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, Calif. on Jan. 1, 2025. Ohio State won 41-21. / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Maybe Ohio State should lose to Michigan every year?

Cheeky, but in some ways true, as the sleeping giants that are the Buckeyes emerged this postseason, rolling Tennessee (42-17) and No. 1 Oregon (41-21) in a brilliant display of both offense and defense. Freshman phenom Jeremiah Smith combined for 290 yards and four touchdowns in the two games, including 161 yards and two touchdowns in the first half of the Rose Bowl. Offensive coordinator Chip Kelly opened up both the playbook and QB Will Howard.

But now that offense goes against a ferocious defense in Texas. Up front, there may not be a more stout combination of players than the ones on the field for the Longhorns. That unit goes against an Ohio State offensive line down multiple starters, but the reshuffled offensive line has actually held up remarkably well in the CFP.

Where I think this game is decided is on the other front. In two games against the Georgia defense–one that's far more comparable to Ohio State's than Clemson or Arizona State's–QB Quinn Ewers was pressured 26 times and sacked 11. In two CFP games, the Buckeyes pressured opposing QBs (one of which was Heisman finalist Dillon Gabriel) a whopping 32 times and sacked them 12 times.

The eight sacks on Gabriel in the Rose Bowl was more than Weeks 3-14 and the Big Ten Championship game combined.

When Ewers faces pressure, he melts down. Not just in that moment, but across drives. As a result, Texas' offense goes through puzzling spells of not being able to move the football despite evidence to suggest they can. Against Arizona State in the Peach Bowl, the Longhorns scored two touchdowns in three snaps with the footall. After that, they didn't find the end zone again until 10 minutes to go in the entire game.

Should Texas be able to neutralize the Ohio State ground game–a serious possibility given its performance against most run games, aside from facing Thanos himself in Cam Skattebo–the Buckeyes still can fall back on the most dangerous passing attack in the country.

Texas does offer an All-American defensive back to counter the Ohio State receiving corps: Jahdae Barron. Barron put together the best performance of any corner in college football. However, he has a major disadvantage against a 6-foot-4 Smith – Barron stands just 5-foot-11. He's perhaps a better matchup against Emeka Egbuka (6-foot-1), leaving Smith unaccounted for.

Every team in the semifinal has a championship defense. But only one has a true championship offense: Ohio State.

The pick: Ohio State 31, Texas 21

Orange Bowl: Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Penn State Nittany Lions

Jan 2, 2025; New Orleans, LA, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback Riley Leonard (13) passes against the Georgia Bulldogs during the second half at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-Imagn Images / Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

If you missed Thursday's Sugar Bowl, you might be misled by the final score. Notre Dame emerged victorious, 23-10, but 17 of those points were scored on special teams and 14 of them within about a 45-second span between the end of the first half and start of the second.

Defense did, indeed, lead the way for the Fighting Irish, sacking opposing QB Gunner Stockton four times and notching nine tackles for a loss. Just two Georgia drives went longer than five yards, one of which ending in a fumble and the other a touchdown down 20-3 with just two minutes left.

Penn State has a major advantage offensively that Georgia didn't have last week – its quarterback, Drew Allar, is healthy.

Aside from a bizarre game at USC, Notre Dame hasn't allowed 18 points since September (and led that game against Louisville 31-17 until five minutes were left in the game). At times, Penn State's offense has come alive–it scored 37 against Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game–but for the most part, that offense can be slowed down by better defenses.

In a loss to Ohio State earlier this year, the Nittany Lions failed to score an offensive touchdown (its lone TD came on an early pick-six). Against SMU in the CFP opening round, 20 of Penn State's 38 points came via defense or special teams. Illinois held Penn State to 21 and UCLA, 27.

When it comes to these late Playoff games, coaching matters. Notre Dame iced the game with a brilliant bait-and-switch conducted by Marcus Freeman. It marked one of the very few times Smart was out-done in the past few seasons. And, across the field from Freeman, is James Franklin – notorious for floundering big games.

Notre Dame seems to do what Penn State likes to do about 10-20% better – running the football, leaning on the offensive line, and finishing the job with a dominant defense. I trust the Fighting Irish in every phase of the game about 10-20% more than the Nittany Lions.

The pick: Notre Dame 28, Penn State 17

College Football Playoff Projected National Championship

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

The College Football Playoff National Championship kicks off Monday, Jan. 20, at 7:30 p.m. EST. Catch the game, played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, on ESPN.

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