College Football Playoffs Round 1 Predictions: Who Moves On To New Year's Six?

The inaugural 12-team College Football Playoffs is here. Which four teams move on to the quarterfinal round and play in the New Year's Six bowls?

Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback Will Howard hands off the ball to Ohio State Buckeyes running back TreVeyon Henderson as the No. 3 Oregon Ducks host the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes Saturday, Oct. 12, 2024 at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore. / Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Starting this Friday night, a new era of college football officially checks in. The first round of the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff sees teams host playoff games–though whether or not these are true, traditional "home" games or not remains to be seen–and four schools set the stage for a weekend of potential madness. So let's try to sort through all this madness and figure out who'll join Oregon, Georgia, Boise State, and Arizona State in the next round of the CFP.

College Football Playoff Opening Round Schedule

Kick times listed in EST. Teams listed according to seed, not final CFP rank.

• No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Notre Dame: Friday, Dec. 20, 8 p.m. (ABC/ESPN)
• No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Penn State: Saturday, Dec. 21, 12 p.m. (TNT)
• No. 12 Clemson at No. 5 Texas: Saturday, Dec. 21, 4 p.m. (TNT)
• No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State: Saturday, Dec. 21, 8 p.m. (ABC/ESPN)

College Football Playoff Opening Round Predictions

Indiana Hoosiers at Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard (13) hands the ball off to running back Jeremiyah Love (4) during a NCAA college football game against Virginia at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 16, 2024, in South Bend. / MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

As of writing, Notre Dame is a -7 (-115) favorite over Indiana on Friday night. That number's come down from an opening mark of -8. Both teams look to shake their strength of schedule stat–Notre Dame's ranks 60th while Indiana, 67th, per ESPN's resume ratings–perhaps putting a damper on two 11-1 seasons.

When looking at each team's toughest game, one fared much better than the other. Indiana fell to Ohio State, 31-15 (31-7 if not for a late score to cover the damage) while Notre Dame went to Texas A&M and beat the Aggies, 23-13. Of course, when it comes to worst losses, Notre Dame takes the national cake as just one week later, the Irish lost a shocker to NIU, 16-14, as 28.5-point favorites at home.

But that loss aside, Notre Dame's left no doubt. They lead the nation in scoring margin (+26.3) and decimated unbeaten Navy, 51-14, and Army, 49-14. This is a major step up in class for Curt Cignetti, the National Coach of the Year, and crew.

The pick: Notre Dame 31, Indiana 17

SMU Mustangs at Penn State Nittany Lions

Penn State running back Nick Singleton (10) runs to the end zone to score a touchdown on a 17-yard reception in the first half of an NCAA football game against Kent State, Saturday, Sept. 21, 2024, in State College, Pa. / Dan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Last time out, SMU avoided a flash fry and took Clemson to the wire in the ACC Championship Game. The Mustangs managed to avoid a flash fry season after playing a tight game with Nevada and losing to BYU early in the year. But upon making the switch from QB Preston Stone to Kevin Jennings, almost nobody's been better than SMU.

Penn State flexed its muscles in perhaps its best offensive performance of the season in the Big Ten Championship Game, losing out to Oregon in a 45-37 shootout. The Nittany Lions rushed for nearly 300 yards in the contest against the nation's top team. However, concerns did linger about the defense, particularly its inability to generate pressure or get stops in the pass game.

Temperatures Saturday in Happy Valley aren't expected to reach 25º and moderate winds may keep the wind chill below 20º. How does a team from Dallas, with a roster largely local to Texas, fare in that environment? Further, SMU's biggest away game this year came at Louisville's L&N Stadium (capacity: 60,800). Noon or not, Beaver Stadium (capacity: 106,572) presents a much more difficult challenge.

The pick: Penn State 28, SMU 13

Clemson Tigers at Texas Longhorns

Texas Longhorns defensive back Jahdae Barron (7) reacts to a play during the Longhorns' game against the Florida Gators, Nov. 9, 2024 at Darrell K. Royal Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin. / Mikala Compton/American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The winner of this game keeps its quarterback clean. A pretty obvious sentiment, but both teams struggled mightily on championship weekend doing so. Without All American tackle Kelvin Banks in the lineup, Texas QB Quinn Ewers took six sacks and was pressured 17 times. Against SMU's aggressive defensive front, Cade Klubnik was also pressured 17 times, though he was sacked three times.

Texas rosters All Americans at every level of the defense, now verifiable by the 2024 AP All America Team. That's a significant step up in class from SMU (or even South Carolina and Louisville, both teams Clemson fell to). Klubnik should play with an intense energy as the
Westlake High School legend played just seven miles from DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium.

Clemson's pass game was the X-Factor in the 34-31 ACC Championship win over SMU. Talented receivers in Bryant Wesco Jr. and T.J. Moore helped jump the Tigers to a 21-7 first quarter lead. Against Jahdae Barron and Michael Taaffe, both All America selections, Clemson won't have as easy a time pushing the ball downfield through the air.

The pick: Texas 30, Clemson 13

Tennessee Volunteers at Ohio State Buckeyes

Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Jeremiah Smith (4) warms up prior to the NCAA football game against the Nebraska Cornhuskers at Ohio Stadium in Columbus on Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024. / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The fad would be to take Tennessee and all of the points imaginable as Ohio State was last seen tucking its tail between its legs after a fourth consecutive loss to Michigan, this time as 20.5-point favorites. The grumblings suggest Tennesse orange is going to overtake The 'Shoe with 40,000+ tickets in the supposed hands of Vol fans.

Supposedly.

This game presents a fascinating insight into human psyche. Because Tennessee doesn't sport Maize & Blue, will Ryan Day coach a more aggressive game like we saw in the 2022 College Football Playoff against Georgia? Or does this physical Tennessee defense stifle the Buckeyes ground game again?

Chances are, we'll know early on how this one is going to play out. But there's a real significance to one team having another's number. Carrying a 5-14 record against the SEC (2-13 in the postseason) might just be enough to get Ohio State to play tight. But if they play loose, call a more competent offense, and reach their potential, this could be a runaway for the home team, injuries to the offensive line aside.

The pick: Ohio State 34, Tennessee 20

College Football Playoff Projected Quarterfinal Matchups

All CFP quarterfinal games are broadcast on ESPN and listed below in EST.

• Fiesta Bowl: No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 3 Boise State (Tuesday, Dec. 31, 7:30 p.m.)
• Peach Bowl: No. 5 Texas vs. No. 4 Arizona State (Wednesday, Jan. 1, 1 p.m.)
• Rose Bowl: No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Oregon (Wednesday, Jan. 1, 5 p.m.)
• Sugar Bowl: No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (Wednesday, Jan. 1, 8:45 p.m.)

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