Way-Too-Early Big 12 Football Predictions For 2022

National Signing Day is in the books, the transfer portal's slowed down, the coaching carousel fulfilled, and teams are returning to practice. What a perfect time to project the entire 2022 season in the Big 12.

© Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Exactly 200 days stand between us and the 2022 college football season. Most of the mixing around with rosters and personnel has slowed down and we have a rough idea of what each team is going to look like next year.

That said, let's take a look at what the Big 12 could look like in 2022.

Note: Change could still happen. Surprising camp heroes, changes in the starting lineups, philosophies, etc. and– God forbid– major injuries change the landscape of each team. We're taking the teams as they are today, Feb. 8.

Who Wins The Big 12 In 2022?

Let's just dive right into the meat of it, no need to bury the burning question.

The Pick: Oklahoma Sooners

Oklahoma Sooners head coach Brent Venables :: © SARAH PHIPPS/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK

Wait a minute– I'm picking the team with the entirely new coaching staff? The team that lost not one but two starting quarterbacks to the transfer portal? The chalky pick over the defending champion Baylor Bears?

Yes, I am, and here's why:

The Sooners dominated the transfer portal. It's a dirty word to many, but the modern iteration of college football demands you either win the transfer portal or sign a top-tier quarterback in recruiting. Oklahoma signed the fourth-ranked transfer class in the nation per 247Sports.

That class is headlined by UCF superstar Dillon Gabriel. In 26 games at UCF, Gabriel amassed a ridiculous 8,067 yards, threw for 70 touchdowns, and only 14 interceptions. Per game, that's over 310 yards and 2.7 touchdowns. This kid is downright special.

New coach Brent Venables comes from Clemson as the highest paid coordinator in college football and has decades of experience. Longtime Oklahoma fans will remember Venables once coached defense in Norman. He gets the culture, and he's an experienced coach. This isn't rolling the dice. 

He brings along an all-star cast for his staff, too: Ole Miss offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby (OU grad), Clemson assistants Ted Roof and Todd Bates as defensive coordinators (the latter coached the second-best defensive line in the nation last year), and Alabama corners coach Jay Valai as their DBs coach (who put out multiple first-round NFL draft picks). These are absolutely the right guys.

They bring in ridiculous talent in the transfer portal and signed multiple championship experienced coaches. They're going to be the Vegas odds favorite to win the conference.

Dave Aranda led the Baylor Bears from a two-win season to the Big 12 Championship in just one season / © Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

The Case For Everyone Else

I'd be remiss not to mention last year's finalists: Baylor and Oklahoma State. Dave Aranda is a terrific coach, but loses a lot of his production, particularly on defense. Surely Baylor isn't going to fall off a cliff; Aranda turned them from a two-win team to conference champions in one year.

I'm a believer in Blake Shapen, the likely rising starter, but– from what I've seen– he's not a transformational quarterback like Gabriel. The team is solid, but I'm not sure they're championship-level this year.

Oklahoma State also lost too much, again, particularly on defense. Jim Knowles was one of the top defensive coordinators in college football and he's off to Ohio State. He took a starting defensive back, Tanner McCalister, with him. They also lose two other All Americans to the NFL.

It's taboo at this point to say, but Texas is headed in a good direction. They once again landed a top-10 recruiting class nationally (that's nothing new), but they also landed some big-time playmakers in the portal: Alabama tight end Jaheel Billingsly and Wyoming star receiver Isaiah Neyor.

Their skill positions are downright deadly. Rising sophomore Xavier Worthy is one of the best receivers in the conference and Bijan Robinson is the best running back in the nation. The addition of Quinn Ewers– Texas' prodigal son– helps, too. However, I'll believe it when I see it.

© Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Projected Order of Finish

1. Oklahoma Sooners
2. Baylor Bears
3. Texas Longhorns
4. Oklahoma State Cowboys
5. Texas Tech Red Raiders
6. Kansas State Wildcats
7. Iowa State Cyclones
8. TCU Horned Frogs
9. West Virginia Mountaineers
10. Kansas Jayhawks

Big 12 Championship: Oklahoma OVER Baylor

Biggest Risers

It's hard to determine potential risers and fallers without projected win totals, so we're going to take it based on last year's results. And instead of looking at teams as a whole, I'll be focusing on "units" (ex. defenses, offensive lines, receiving corps, linebackers, etc.).

New Texas Tech defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter in 2016, when he was coaching Fresno State / © Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Texas Tech's Defense

Not a lot of defense has been played out in Lubbock for the past few decades. Texas Tech has historically ran Air Raid offenses that rely on simply outscoring the opposition and relying on turnovers on defense to get the job done.

However, there's a new era coming in Lubbock– a defensive era. Tim DeRuyter comes in from Oregon, who fielded one of the better defenses in the nation. DeRuyter wasn't fired, either, he was lost in the massive shift in coaching from Mario Cristobal to Dan Lanning. He's a hot commodity and his addition to Texas Tech is pretty major.

Take a look at their recruiting class, too: the top four players and six of the top eight play defense.

Ali Alan (SMU) transferred to TCU in the offseason alongside head coach Sonny Dykes / © Brett Rojo-USA TODAY Sports

TCU's Offensive and Defensive Fronts

In 2022, TCU only had two options: Improve or stay the same. Their units on the line of scrimmage weren't only one of the worst in the Big 12, they were among the worst in the country. Against teams like West Virginia (who themselves had a rough time in the trenches), the Horned Frogs were flat out bullied.

TCU hit the transfer portal and landed one of the biggest gets in the nation: Offensive lineman Alan Ali. They also signed three defensive linemen and return the most production overall in the conference. It may not be an improvement to the best units in the Big 12, but it'll certainly be better than last year.

Texas receiver Xavier Worthy runs for a touchdown against Kansas :: © Mikala Compton/American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK

Texas Receivers

If you didn't click out of the article when I said Texas was heading in a good direction earlier, thank you. They didn't have the most lethal passing offense for most of 2021, instead relying on Robinson to be their playmaker. To fix this, they landed one of the best playmakers in the transfer portal, Isaiah Neyor. But we talked about this above.

The other piece to the puzzle other than incoming and returning players is the position coach they hired: Pitt receivers coach Brennan Marion. Who? The guy that coached and developed Biletnikoff Award winner Jordan Addison (given to the best receiver in the nation). Addison is special, becoming just the third player since 2010 to win the award before his draft-eligible year (Justin Blackmon, Ja'Marr Chase).

And now, Marion gets his hands on Xavier Worthy. Good gracious, watch out.

Biggest Fallers

Same rules apply: I'm looking at units rather than entire teams.

Brock Purdy is taken down in the Cheez-It Bowl, his last game in an Iowa State uniform / © Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Iowa State's Offense

What offense? The Cyclones finished 2021 with the 31st-most points per drive in the nation, a pretty decent mark. First team All American Breece Hall accounted for a ridiculous 32% of all yards Iowa State gained this year.

One-third of their entire offense walks out the door and to the NFL. Along with Hall goes four of their starting five offensive linemen. Starting quarterback Brock Purdy also leaves, interpret that one how you may. Point is, the little offensive playmakers that Iowa State had last year are gone and they didn't do much from the outside to replace them.

Defensive coordinator Jim Knowles earned himself a massive payday at Ohio State after leading Oklahoma State to their best defense in decades :: © BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK

Oklahoma State's Defense

Losing one of the best defensive coordinators in the country hurts a lot. So much so, that it may have ripple effects across the entire team, not just the defense. Two All Americans on defense depart the team: Linebacker Malcom Rodriguez (2nd team), defensive back Kolby Harvell-Peel (3rd team), as well as the aforementioned Tanner McCalister (who started).

The Pokes defense propelled them to wins and almost every major contributor to that doesn't return in 2022.

First team All American safety Jalen Pitre departs Baylor for the NFL / © Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports

Baylor's Defensive Secondary

Let's face it: It would have been hard for the Bears to repeat their secondary's performance in 2022. First Team All American safety Jalen Pitre is off to the NFL and defensive backs coach Matt Prowledge left to accept the Oregon defensive coordinator job.

We'll be back later this offseason to dissect the Big 12 again. Teams evolve as camps go on and we'll get a clearer picture in the summer of what to expect from these teams.

Want to join the discussion? Click here to become a member of the Killer Frogs message board community today!

Follow KillerFrogs on Twitter to stay up to date on all the latest TCU news! Follow KillerFrogs on Facebook and Instagram as well. Download the KillerFrogs app on Google Play or in the Apple App Store.