Houston At TCU Odds, Betting Prediction For College Football Week 6

TCU is a heavy -16.5 favorite for its Week 6 home showdown against Houston on Friday night.

Sep 7, 2024; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs running back Cam Cook (4) runs the ball against the Long Island Sharks in the first quarter at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-Imagn Images / Tim Heitman-Imagn Images

The TCU Horned Frogs (3-2, 1-1) continue their Big 12 slate on Friday night against the Houston Cougars (1-4, 0-2). TCU is a -16.5 favorite over Houston and sportsbooks tab the game with a 51.5-point over/under as of Thursday morning.

Adjusted for the vigorish (think of it as a sportsbook tax), TCU has an implied win probability of 85.2%. So far, the Horned Frogs are 3-2 against the spread, covering last week's +2 line with a 38-27 win over Kansas. The over is also 4-1, with 65 points being enough to cover a closing mark of 58.5 points.

Houston At TCU Odds: Pick Against The Spread

Sep 28, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Cougars quarterback Donovan Smith (1) hands off to running back Re'Shaun Sanford II (26) during the fourth quarter against the Iowa State Cyclones at TDECU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Houston is off to a disastrous start. Not only are the Cougars 1-4 overall–with their lone win coming over Rice (ranked 119th in the FBS in power)–but they've failed to score a single point in two Big 12 league games. Against FBS competition and UNLV, Houston has combined for 19 total points.

In a transition year under Andy Avalos, TCU hasn't gotten things going defensively. The Horned Frogs rank 126th in success rate allowed on third and fourth downs (which, by the definition of third and fourth down success rate means the opposing offense converted). Defensive success rate (40% of the distance on first down, 60% on second, and 100% on third/fourth downs) ranks 100th. The run is of particular concern.

Houston's lone saving grace on offense is explosive plays. Few and far between, four of Houston's five offensive touchdowns came from 35+ yards out. The lone outlier was a one-yard TD rush coming off an interception returned to the...one yard line. Sustained drives simply haven't been a thing for the Cougars this season.

But with the threat of explosive plays everpresent, I'm avoiding laying the points with TCU. Especially if this game gets into garbage time, I don't want a long score to be the bad beat of the night.

• The pick: No bet

Houston At TCU Odds: Pick Against The Total

Sep 28, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Josh Hoover (10) hands off to running back Cam Cook (4) against the Kansas Jayhawks during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images / Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Being ahead of the market on teams is a profitable place to be. Last week, we jumped on Kansas being not as good as opening betting lines suggested. As a result, we won the bet.

This week, I'm getting ahead of the market on the Houston defense. While the offense is putrid (to be kind about it), Houston's defense under coordinator Shiel Wood has been quite good. The Cougars held Iowa State to 56% of its average scoring output (20 points vs. 36-point average), UNLV to 74% of its average (27 vs. 36.3), and Oklahoma to 56% of its average (16 vs. 28.6). The only team to score above its season average output was Cincinnati, who scored 34 points (vs. 32.3 average) and once on a short field.

Houston limits explosive plays through the air. I anticipate TCU taking a more conservative approach–mainly because Houston isn't much a threat to score–and playing an offense more in line with what the NFL looks like this year.

As a result, more plays, less explosives, and more time off the clock. Houston can provide some resistence defensively, particularly along the defensive line.

• The pick: TCU under 34.5 team total points

2024 record: 3-3

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