A Longshot Pick To Win Every College Football Conference

Get ready to get in the weeds and find some seriously-hopeful longshots for each college football conference in 2023.

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At times, college football can be a chalky sport. It's Georgia, it's Alabama, it's Ohio State, and it's everyone else. Recently, Michigan took hold of the Big Ten Conference, but it's been the Buckeyes' league for the last decade.

But sometimes, a longshot comes out of essentially nowhere to compete – and, at times, win – their conference. TCU and Tulane just last year came from losing seasons (the Green Wave won just two games in 2021) to compete for their conference. While the Horned Frogs were bested in the Big 12 Championship Game, they made their first College Football Playoff and finished as the national runners-up.

Let's lay out one longshot that could compete for a conference title for the 2023 college football season.

ACC: Duke Blue Devils

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First, let's be specific about what a "longshot" means in this article. I don't mean a team just on the outside looking in. The teams on this list are true "if everything goes right" picks. However, I also do believe all of these teams can make a run at the conference.

Anyway, welcome to the re-branded KillerFrogs, a.k.a. the Riley Leonard fan club. Duke quietly won nine games last season, including a bowl win over UCF. They return just about everybody offensively, bringing 82% of their offensive production from 2022, a top-10 mark nationally. Defensively is where they shone bright last year and do replace some pieces including the DC.

All four losses las year were one-score games. They handle Clemson and Notre Dame right out of the gate, both with major turnover on their roster. The Blue Devils have another real shot at nine wins this season.

Big 12: UCF Knights

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UCF was only bested in the American last year by a Tulane team that went absolutely nuclear and beat USC in the Cotton Bowl. They come into the Big 12 and, in their first year, are slated for just 6.5 wins, according to sports betting win totals. Yet, the Knights bring back dynamic QB John Rhys Plumlee and a pretty solid skill group.

For years, UCF has proven to be able to run with the nation's big programs and this year should be no different. However, with all the buzz coming around Texas, Oklahoma, TCU, and Kansas State, UCF flies under the radar. They couldn't have to handle Texas or TCU until a conference championship, making their route easier than others.

Big Ten: Nebraska Cornhuskers

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Realistically, it's asinine to bet against Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State in the Big Ten. Since all three of those schools play in the same division, it's even more asinine to pick a dark horse from the East. Instead, let's look to the West to find a team that may make serious strides and wind up in Indianapolis.

All of the attention falls on the revamped Wisconsin – and rightfully so – almost completely overshadowing the 360º turn Nebraska did this offseason. They bring in a proven college head coach in Matt Rhule and a host of transfers. Rhule turned Baylor from a 1-11 disaster into an 11-win monster in two years. Hell, he won 10 games in back to back seasons at Temple.

Nebraska isn't such a bad pick, even if they realistically might be two years out.

Pac-12: Oregon State Beavers

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Few coaches make more out of what they have on their roster than Oregon State's Jonathan Smith. According to 247Sports, the Beavers had the third-least talent on their roster and yet Smith took them to 10 wins. They were a true difference-maker at QB from being a legitimate national threat.

Enter: DJ Uiagalelei. He flashed in his first start at Clemson in 2020, throwing for 439 yards against a solid Notre Dame defense. After that, he failed to produce much of anything. Did the Monstars steal his talent? Did he just forget how to play football?

Of course not. Clemson's offensive coaching malpractice was well-documented in an interview with DJ U in The Athletic. He's a talented QB coming into Corvallis, which is all they need to push them over the top.

SEC: Kentucky Wildcats

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Offensive coordinator Liam Coen returns to Lexington after a one-year stint with the Rams in the NFL. Coen propelled Kentucky to its best offensive output in over 50 years in 2021 with majorly the same pieces that fell to 111th in scoring without him last year.

Despite losing Will Levis to the NFL (some would say is not an enormous loss), the Wildcats bring in NC State QB Devin Leary. There's some holes need replacing on defense, but Mark Stoops is proven to be able to do that and develop good defensive players. All that stands between Kentucky and nine wins is a good offense. And Coen already proved to be the skeleton key for said offense.

Granted, Kentucky still needs to go through the gauntlet that is the SEC. But this is an article about longshots.

American: Florida Atlantic Owls

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Who wouldn't want to spend their rebuilding coaching years or finish out a college career in Boca Raton? Tom Herman along with a bunch of names football diehards recognize – Charlie Frye, Chad Lunsford, Roc Bellantoni, Everett Withers – team up in paradise along with several transfers. They also return an astounding 99% of defensive production.

FAU moves to the markedly-tougher American from Conference-USA alongside five other members. However, they upgrade in both the coaching staff and at quarterback, a winning recipe in the college ranks. Buckle up for a vastly more improved FAU team.

Conference-USA: New Mexico State Aggies

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Like Matt Rhule, all head coach Jerry Kill knows how to do is improve programs and win football games. He returns to Las Cruces with prolific QB Deigo Pavia. The Quick Lane Bowl wonder played really good ball over the back stretch of the 2022 season and should be one of the more fun watches this year.

New Mexico State moves to Conference-USA after a stint as an independent team. C-USA just lost all of its heavy hitters, who accounted for all six of the last conference champions. It's by far the weakest conference, held together by Western Kentucky and, *checks notes,* Middle Tennessee. Another gritty season from Kill & Co. might put the Aggies in the conference conversation.

MAC: Central Michigan Chippewas

BERT EMANUEL JR. 🚨

He somehow stays up and takes it 87 yards to tie the game! pic.twitter.com/H29PtSvZN4

— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) November 10, 2022

Is anyone truly a longshot in the MAC? The conference has the lowest variability rating between the top and bottom teams of any conference nationally. But to choose a team that finished down there in the rankings, I present to you Bert Emanuel Jr. (see above).

The rising sophomore looked like an NFL running back playing in the MAC – a truly un-tackleable player with blistering speed and good size. In the MAC, a single superstar like that can carry a team to greatness (see: Matt Johnson, BGSU 2015). Anyone's guess is as good as the next's when trying to buckle down the MAC West.

Mountain West: San Diego State Aztecs

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For the last however many odd years, San Diego State declined to field an offense. You have to dig back to the Donnel Pumphrey days of 2016 to find an offense that ranked inside the top-80 nationally in scoring. So, the Aztecs brought in their all-time leading passer Ryan Lindley to conduct the offense.

QB Jalen Mayden (6-foot-3, 230 pounds!) should benefit from having some sort of direction after passing for 2,000 yards last season. They have to replace almost everyone defensively, but that's nothing new and San Diego State has fielded a rock-solid defense for the last half decade. With the top Mountain West teams needing to replace a lot, SDSU could return to the top of the league and quickly.

Sun Belt: Texas State Bobcats

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In 2022, Texas State finished 108th in scoring, posting less than 20 points per game. They cleaned house in San Marcos, both in the coaching staff and on the roster. GJ Kinne comes in after fielding one of the top offenses in the FCS (scoring 51.5 points per game!) and he brings his entire staff and half the roster with him.

The Bobcats also landed two nice pieces at QB in the transfer portal: Auburn starting QB TJ Finley and Arkansas four-star Malik Hornsby. Should this gamble pay off and Kinne's staff can move the ball at the FCS level (see: Zach Kittley), Texas State may have the most dramatic offensive turnaround of all time.

The Sun Belt is a difficult league, but Texas State benefits from the sixth-easiest schedule in the conference.

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