Predicting the Big 12 Championship Game and the Conference’s Playoff Outlook

Which two teams will battle it out in Arlington? Will the Big 12 get two teams in the playoff?

Sep 28, 2024; Manhattan, Kansas, USA; Kansas State Wildcats quarterback Avery Johnson (2) leaps into the arms of offensive lineman Hadley Panzer (54) after scoring a touchdown against the Oklahoma State Cowboys in the fourth quarter at Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Sewell-Imagn Images / Scott Sewell-Imagn Images

With the new format of the 12-team college football playoff set to be debut this season, the Big 12 is guaranteed at least one spot in the field.

That is not something that could always be said in years past. There were a few seasons where no Big 12 teams made the playoffs at all. Only Oklahoma, Texas, and TCU ever made the four-team field that started in 2014 and ended in 2024. Now Oklahoma and Texas are in the SEC, and the Big 12 is entering a new era along with the rest of college football.

In the new 12-team format, the five highest ranked conference champions are guaranteed a spot in the playoff, with the four highest being guaranteed a top four seed and a first round bye. This means that the winner of the Big 12 championship would have a great chance to be inside the top four. But which teams will be playing for that right in Arlington this year?

Big 12 Title Prediction: Kansas State vs. BYU

A rematch of a game that BYU won 38-9 in Provo will not go the same way a second time. The Wildcats have looked like the best team in the conference outside of that blowout loss to the Cougars. It is very difficult to beat a team twice, especially in a conference title game.

The Wildcats will win a close rematch and will lock up the No. 4 seed in the College Football Playoff, along with the first round bye that comes with it.

Will the Big 12 get two teams in the field?

It is hard to say at this point if any other Big 12 team will be in a good enough position to be in the top 12 at the end of the year. Judging by how SEC and Big Ten teams are generally given the benefit of the doubt over teams from other conferences, it is likely that a Big 12 team that isn’t a conference champion could not get into the playoffs with any more than two losses. Even a second loss would eliminate most Big 12 teams from contention.

Teams like Iowa State, Utah, or the conference runner up BYU would have a chance to get into the field with one loss, but not as likely with a second. If Iowa State or Utah finish in third in the conference and does not have to play the conference title game, they may be able to sneak into the field with one loss, jumping ahead of BYU. But if the Cougars are undefeated and then lose a close game to Kansas State, they would be the easy choice for a second Big 12 team in the playoffs.

Stay tuned for updates to this prediction and a continued look at the Big 12’s playoff prospects.

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